🕒 12:45 PM ET @ San Siro (Milan, Italy)
AC Milan returns home for the second leg of their Champions League knockout play-off, trailing 1-0 after a tough first leg in Rotterdam. Milan dominated the first encounter in terms of chances, but a clinical Feyenoord side capitalized early and held firm.
Now, Milan needs at least a two-goal victory to avoid extra time and secure a spot in the next round, while Feyenoord aims to defend their lead, though their poor away record raises concerns.
First leg recap
✔ Feyenoord 1-0 AC Milan
✔ Possession: 50% - 50%
✔ Shots on Target: Milan 6 – Feyenoord 2
Despite Milan’s control in the attacking third, their finishing let them down. Feyenoord, meanwhile, took advantage of their limited opportunities and played a compact defensive game after scoring.
Betting odds & lines
Moneyline | AC Milan -260, Draw +420, Feyenoord +625 |
Asian handicap | AC Milan -1, -1.5 (-118), Feyenoord +1, +1.5 (-102) |
Total goals (O/U 2.5, 3) | Over (-120), Under (EVEN) |
Both teams to score (BTTS) | Yes (-105), No (-125) |
💡 Bookmakers heavily favor Milan (-260), expecting them to control the game. The total goals line suggests an expectation of a game with at least 3 goals.
Team form & key stats
AC Milan (last 10 matches - all competitions)
✅ W-D-W-D-W-L-D-D-W-W
🔺Goals scored: 1.2 per match | 🔻Goals conceded: 0.8 per match | 📊 Possession: 56%
👉 Key players:
Tijjani Reijnders (4 goals, 2 assists)
Rafael Leão (2 goals, 3 assists)
Christian Pulisic (2 assists, playmaking role)
Mike Maignan (4 clean sheets, crucial at home)
Milan has won 4 of their last 5 home matches and is unbeaten in their last 4 league games.
Feyenoord (last 10 matches - all competitions)
✅ W-D-L-W-W-L-D-L-D-W
🔺 Goals scored: 1.8 per match |🔻 Goals conceded: 1.3 per match | 📊 Possession: 63.1%
👉 Key players:
Santiago Gimenez (5 goals in UCL, Milan’s main threat)
Igor Paixao (4 goals, 3 assists - key playmaker)
Anis Hadj Moussa (3 goals, rapid winger on counters)
Timon Wellenreuther (3 clean sheets in last 10)
Feyenoord has struggled on the road, failing to score in their last two away UCL matches. They are winless in their last 5 away games.
Tactical breakdown & betting insights
1️⃣ Igor Paixao 2+ shots |💰 Odds: ~-120
Feyenoord’s biggest creative force.
Had 3 shots in the first leg and 2+ shots in 4 of his last 5 UCL games.
Milan will push high, leaving space for counters.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)
2️⃣ Feyenoord under 1 goal | 💰 Odds: ~+100
Feyenoord has failed to score in 3 of their last 7 away matches.
Milan has kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 home games.
Feyenoord’s best performances have come at home, but their attack struggles away.
⚠️ Risk factor: Milan's defense has occasional lapses, and a counter-attack goal could spoil this bet.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)
3️⃣ AC Milan to win 1st half & full game | 💰 Odds: ~+125
Milan’s front four (Felix, Leao, Pulisic, Gimenez) should dominate against Feyenoord’s shaky defense.
Milan has scored a first-half goal in their last 4 UCL home games.
Feyenoord’s defense has struggled against elite attacks.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (8/10)
4️⃣ Small parlay | 💰 Odds: Varies (~+200 to +250 depending on book)
Legs: Milan to qualify, Joao Felix 2+ shots, Milan over 1.5 goals
Milan should score at least 2 at home.
Felix is a shot-heavy player and will be looking to make an impact.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10) - a little variance, but solid value
Final predictions & best bets
Predicted scoreline:
⚽ AC Milan 2-0 Feyenoord
🏹 Goalscorers: Joao Felix, Santiago Gimenez
Best bets:
Best Bet: AC Milan -1.5 Handicap (+107.5)
Value Bet: Milan to Win First Half & Full Game (+125)
Longshot Pick: Santiago Gimenez Anytime Goal (+120)
Final verdict
AC Milan should dominate at home, using the San Siro atmosphere and tactical advantage. Feyenoord’s away struggles make it difficult to trust them to score. If Milan turns up, this could be a comfortable win.
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