🕒 10:00 PM ET @ Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX
💰 Moneyline: Baylor -120 / Arizona EVEN | Total: 153 (-110 over / -110 under)
Arizona’s elite rebounding and high-powered offense make them a dangerous road team, but their struggles from deep could be a problem against Baylor’s slower pace. The Bears have been nearly unstoppable at home (13-1) and should control the tempo. In a close matchup, we’re rolling with the home team to take care of business.
Key betting trends:
Arizona: 14-11 ATS overall, 5-3 ATS as an away team.
Baylor: 9-14-1 ATS, struggling in conference games (5-9 ATS).
Head-to-Head: Arizona won the last meeting 81-70 on Jan. 14.
Matchup analysis
Arizona Wildcats
Record: 17-8, 14-11 ATS
✅ Elite rebounding (6th in total rebounds per game)
✅ Strong defense (12th in adjusted defensive efficiency)
✅ Effective at getting to the free-throw line (56th in FTA per game)
✅ High-scoring offense (23rd in PPG)
✅ Excellent two-point shooting (46th in two-point FG%)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (299th in 3PT%)
❌ Turnover-prone (179th in turnovers per game)
❌ Struggles in slow-paced games (adjusted tempo advantage needed)
Baylor Bears
Record: 16-9, 9-14-1 ATS
✅ Strong home performance (13-1 at home)
✅ Excellent offensive rebounding (32nd in offensive rebounds per game)
✅ Solid three-point shooting (77th in 3PT%)
✅ Balanced scoring (multiple double-digit scorers)
✅ Plays well in slower-paced games (297th in adjusted tempo)
❌ Weak overall defense (239th in opponent effective FG%)
❌ Struggles against high-pressure defenses (315th in opponent assists per game)
❌ Inconsistent against top teams (2-4-1 ATS vs. ranked opponents)
Picks & predictions
Final score: Baylor 75 - Arizona 72
Outcome: Baylor covers the spread | Key factors: Arizona’s poor three-point shooting, Baylor’s home dominance, and rebounding battle.
Spread pick | Baylor -1.5 (-105) - Reasoning: Baylor is 13-1 at home and has played significantly better in Waco. Arizona's struggles from beyond the arc could be costly. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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