Pirates vs. Rockies
Pick: Pirates –1.5 (–140)
Paul Skenes is the top arm on the slate (14.7 FPTS projection), and the Pirates are heavy favorites at –300. Colorado’s bats project bottom-tier vs. righties, and PNC is a park downgrade for the Rockies. Runline is safer than laying –300.
Phillies vs. Nationals
Pick: Phillies –1.5 (–135)
Ranger Suárez has a 70% win projection against a weak Washington lineup, while Jake Irvin projects poorly. Nationals’ pitchers have today’s worst matchup (expected ERA 5.47). Philly should roll at home.
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Pick: Yankees –1.5 (+130)
Carlos Rodón projects well (13 FPTS), and the Yankees get a big edge vs. Boston’s shaky pitching staff. NYY bats also have one of the best hitter matchups today. With plus money on the runline, this is a strong angle.
Mariners vs. Athletics
Pick: Under 7.5 (EVEN)
Logan Gilbert projects for 12.3 FPTS, and Jacob Lopez has been dominant (0.70 ERA in August). Both are in the best pitcher’s park in MLB. Runs should be scarce in Seattle.