Astros vs. Rockies
Pick: Astros –1.5 (–140)
Framber Valdez (13.1 FPTS) is one of the slate’s top arms and projects well against a weak Rockies lineup. Houston’s offense should take care of business, and with Valdez at home this looks like a runline cover spot.
Braves @ Marlins
Pick: Braves –1.5 (+135)
Max Fried (13.0 FPTS) has been steady and lines up well against Miami. Atlanta’s offense has an edge and the +135 runline price is great value with Fried projected to limit runs.
Guardians vs. Rays
Pick: Guardians ML (–120)
Nolan McLean (11.7 FPTS) projects stronger than Drew Rasmussen here. Tampa’s offense has been inconsistent, and Cleveland’s –120 line provides a reasonable price for the win.
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Pick: Cardinals –1.5 (+125)
Sonny Gray (12.2 FPTS) is one of the better arms on the slate, and Pittsburgh is sending Quinn Priester, who projects for trouble. At +125, the runline is the play.
Dodgers vs. Reds
Pick: Dodgers –1.5 (+110)
Shohei Ohtani is still being managed carefully, but the matchup is brutal for the Reds — they’re facing one of the slate’s worst expected pitcher/hitter spots. With LA at home, the plus-money runline is the value.