These college bowl games have been wildly unpredictable. The NFL games have been pretty boring lately. Hopefully, we get some good action this weekend. I also feel like I’ve been waiting forever for the college football playoffs to resume! 🤣
I’m still taking in the sunshine in Florida right now and hanging with the family. I’m off to Puerto Rico to visit my old stomping grounds in a couple days to spend New Years there. There’s actually a Bet MGM sports book there so maybe I’ll get some action down. Also, there’s a pro Puerto Rican basketball league — pretty sure the games are rigged — sometimes the power goes out with 10 seconds left! Maybe I’ll find some good action there 👀.
As the football season is winding down, I’m trying to dial in to the NBA more, but it’s a challenging beast for sure…
Other Things I’m Working On 💻
I’m also spending my time looking into other money making opportunities, specifically diving into some new things inside of Tik Tok, an app called Flip, and then other crypto themes and ideas. In terms of investments and stuff like that, one super hot sector right now is quantum computing — several stocks are up 100-200% the past week. Just a thing to keep an eye on moving forward.
Random Stuff From This Week 🤔
Got this notification on my watch because I went to a Seahawks game this year. talk about reaching for success!
CJ Stroud just got traded to McDonalds.
Joel Embiid is practicing again and the team has implemented an injury prevention system.
Poor Spencer Rattler…
December 27th College Football Bowl Games: Deep Dive With Data
Here’s some extra info for betting purposes. Take it or leave it! I like to form an opinion of my own first and then confirm or change based on the data.
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Betting Preview
Date/Time: December 27, 2024, 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
Line: Georgia Tech -3.0, Total 49.5
Team Profiles
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Offense:
Points/Game: 26.4 (#72)
Yards/Game: 413.9 (#40)
Rush Yards/Game: 186.5 (#29)
Pass Yards/Game: 227.5 (#60)
Key Players: QB Haynes King (dual-threat with 22 combined touchdowns), RB Jamal Haynes. WR Eric Singleton Jr. has opted out.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 26.5 (#70)
Yards Allowed/Game: 368.9 (#58)
Strengths: Strong against the run (#12 in Line Yards).
Weaknesses: Vulnerable to big plays in the secondary (88th in completion % allowed).
Vanderbilt Commodores
Offense:
Points/Game: 24.1 (#86)
Yards/Game: 317.4 (#118)
Rush Yards/Game: 129.9 (#90)
Pass Yards/Game: 187.5 (#108)
Key Players: QB Diego Pavia (dual-threat, accurate passer), TE Eli Stowers (team-leading 583 yards and 4 TDs).
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 25.2 (#62)
Yards Allowed/Game: 402.6 (#87)
Strengths: Red zone defense (#54 in opponent RZ scoring %).
Weaknesses: Poor tackling (111th per PFF), struggles against the pass (#128 in opponent completion %).
Key Matchup Analysis
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
Advantage: Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech's rushing attack, led by Haynes King and Jamal Haynes, should excel against Vanderbilt's porous run defense, which ranks outside the top 100 in success rate allowed.
Vanderbilt’s struggles in tackling could exacerbate issues containing Georgia Tech’s mobile QB and strong ground game.
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
Advantage: Even
While Georgia Tech’s run defense is solid, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback who can create opportunities both on the ground and through the air.
TE Eli Stowers could exploit Georgia Tech’s vulnerable secondary, particularly with the Yellow Jackets missing key defensive starters.
Key Factors to Consider
Injuries and Opt-Outs:
Georgia Tech is missing key contributors, including WR Eric Singleton Jr. (transfer), a starting left tackle, and multiple defensive starters.
Vanderbilt is relatively intact, aside from a starting offensive lineman.
Rushing vs. Passing Battle:
Georgia Tech will rely on its ground game, while Vanderbilt may lean on Diego Pavia’s dual-threat abilities to exploit Georgia Tech’s depleted defense.
Game Pace:
Both teams rely heavily on the run, which could lead to fewer possessions and a lower-scoring game.
Best Bets
Vanderbilt +3.0 (-110):
Vanderbilt’s offense, led by Diego Pavia, should find success against a decimated Georgia Tech defense. Their ability to control the tempo and stay within striking distance makes the Commodores a solid pick to cover.Under 49.5 (-110):
Both teams will prioritize the run, leading to long drives and limited possessions. Combined with red zone inefficiencies, the under is a strong play.Eli Stowers Anytime TD:
Georgia Tech has struggled to defend athletic tight ends, and Stowers could take advantage in red zone opportunities.
Prediction
This game will likely be a close, methodical contest with both teams leaning on their rushing attacks and dual-threat quarterbacks. Vanderbilt’s momentum from Diego Pavia and their relatively intact roster gives them a slight edge in covering the spread.
Final Score Prediction:
Georgia Tech 23, Vanderbilt 21
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
Date/Time: December 27, 2024, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Line: Texas Tech -2.0, Total 52.5
Team Profiles
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Offense:
Points/Game: 37.4 (#5)
Yards/Game: 453.0 (#7)
Rush Yards/Game: 161.9 (#63)
Pass Yards/Game: 291.1 (#10)
Key Players: RB Tahj Brooks (1,505 yards, 17 TDs), QB Will Hammond (freshman, second start), WR Josh Kelly (opted out).
Strengths: Explosive offense, elite red zone efficiency (#6).
Weaknesses: Turnovers (1.7 giveaways/game, #104), penalties (#114 in penalties/game).
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 33.0 (#111)
Yards Allowed/Game: 439.6 (#117)
Strengths: Top-15 third-down defense (#14), strong takeaways (1.8/game, #21).
Weaknesses: Struggles against the pass (131st in pass yards allowed/game).
Arkansas Razorbacks
Offense:
Points/Game: 26.6 (#69)
Yards/Game: 429.6 (#23)
Rush Yards/Game: 173.2 (#48)
Pass Yards/Game: 256.5 (#33)
Key Players: QB Taylen Green (3,300+ yards, 20 TDs), WR Isaac TeSlaa (25 catches, now WR1), RB Braylen Russell (starting due to opt-outs).
Strengths: Balanced offense, effective in red zone (#39).
Weaknesses: Poor pass protection (111th in QB sack %), significant roster turnover.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 27.2 (#74)
Yards Allowed/Game: 387.5 (#75)
Strengths: Solid run defense (#24 in rush yards allowed).
Weaknesses: Secondary struggles (124th in PFF coverage grade, 119th in contested catch rate).
Key Matchup Analysis
Texas Tech Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
Advantage: Texas Tech
The Red Raiders' potent passing attack, even with a backup QB, matches up well against Arkansas's depleted secondary.
Tahj Brooks provides a consistent rushing threat, particularly against a Razorbacks front missing key players.
Arkansas Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Advantage: Arkansas
While the Razorbacks are short-handed, QB Taylen Green's dual-threat ability should challenge a weak Texas Tech defense.
However, the lack of experienced receivers and offensive linemen could limit their effectiveness.
Key Factors to Consider
Roster Attrition:
Both teams are heavily impacted by opt-outs and injuries, but Arkansas's offensive line and receiver losses are especially concerning.
Quarterback Play:
Texas Tech's Will Hammond is inexperienced but inherits a strong offensive system with playmakers like Tahj Brooks.
Arkansas's Taylen Green has been under pressure all season and may struggle with a patchwork offensive line.
Game Tempo and Style:
Expect Texas Tech to push the pace with their pass-heavy offense, while Arkansas may attempt to control the game with the run.
Best Bets
Texas Tech -2.0 (-110):
Texas Tech's offense should exploit Arkansas's decimated secondary and generate enough scoring to cover the spread.
Over 52.5 (-110):
Both defenses are vulnerable, particularly in the secondary, and this game could turn into a shootout despite offensive uncertainties.
Tahj Brooks Anytime TD:
Brooks is a focal point of Texas Tech's offense and should find the end zone against a Razorbacks defense missing key run-stoppers.
Prediction
This matchup will likely be decided by which team can overcome roster turnover and execute offensively. Texas Tech's explosive offense, led by Brooks and a capable supporting cast, gives them the edge over an Arkansas team with significant question marks across the board.
Final Score Prediction:
Texas Tech 34, Arkansas 27
Syracuse vs. Washington State Betting Preview
Date/Time: December 27, 2024, 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Line: Syracuse -17.5, Total 59.5
Team Profiles
Syracuse Orange (9-3, #21)
Offense:
Points/Game: 31.7 (#32)
Yards/Game: 448.8 (#10)
Pass Yards/Game: 358.3 (#2)
Key Players: QB Kyle McCord (4,326 passing yards, 29 TDs), WR Jackson Meeks (911 yards), RB LeQuint Allen (901 rushing yards, 14 TDs).
Strengths: High-powered passing attack, elite third-down conversion rate (#6), and strong time of possession (#4).
Weaknesses: Weak rushing offense (#126 in rush yards/game).
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 30.0 (#93)
Yards Allowed/Game: 384.2 (#71)
Strengths: Solid third-down defense (#58), decent pass defense (#60 in yards allowed/pass).
Weaknesses: Struggles in the red zone (113th in opponent RZ scoring %), below-average rush defense (#127 in yards allowed/rush).
Washington State Cougars (8-4)
Offense:
Points/Game: 33.7 (#21)
Yards/Game: 422.5 (#32)
Pass Yards/Game: 255.7 (#34)
Key Players: QB Zevi Eckhaus (FBS debut), WR Kyle Williams (1,026 yards), RB Wayshawn Parker (opted out).
Strengths: Balanced offensive attack, effective passing game (#15 in yards/pass).
Weaknesses: Inexperienced quarterback and significant opt-outs on offense.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 27.9 (#77)
Yards Allowed/Game: 427.2 (#107)
Strengths: Decent pass rush and turnover margin (+0.8/game, #12).
Weaknesses: Poor tackling (#125 PFF grade), struggling secondary (#118 in pass defense).
Key Matchup Analysis
Syracuse Passing Attack vs. Washington State Secondary
Advantage: Syracuse
Kyle McCord leads one of the nation’s most prolific passing offenses, and Washington State’s secondary has been a glaring weakness all season. With key defensive opt-outs for the Cougars, Syracuse’s receiving corps should thrive.
Washington State Offense vs. Syracuse Defense
Advantage: Syracuse
Without QB John Mateer and RB Wayshawn Parker, the Cougars’ offense will struggle to maintain its usual efficiency. Zevi Eckhaus, stepping in as quarterback, faces a steep learning curve against a competent Syracuse defense.
Key Factors to Consider
Roster Attrition:
Washington State is heavily impacted by opt-outs, with significant losses at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and defense.
Syracuse Momentum:
The Orange ended the season on a high note, winning four of their last five games, including a statement victory over Miami.
Washington State Coaching Turmoil:
The Cougars will play without their head coach and multiple coordinators, adding to the challenges of preparing for a bowl game.
Best Bets
Syracuse -17.5 (-110):
With Washington State’s depleted roster and lack of continuity, Syracuse is poised to dominate both offensively and defensively.
Syracuse Team Total Over 37.5 (-110):
The Orange’s passing attack should exploit a porous Cougars defense, and they have the weapons to put up points quickly and consistently.
Under 59.5 (-110):
Washington State’s offensive struggles with a new quarterback and lack of continuity will likely lead to a lower-scoring game, despite Syracuse’s output.
Prediction
This matchup is heavily tilted in Syracuse’s favor. The Orange’s high-powered offense, led by an elite quarterback and deep receiving corps, should overpower a Washington State team reeling from opt-outs and coaching departures. Expect Syracuse to control the game from start to finish.
Final Score Prediction:
Syracuse 41, Washington State 17
Texas A&M vs. USC Betting Preview
Date/Time: December 27, 2024, 10:30 PM ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Line: Texas A&M -4, Total 52
Team Profiles
Texas A&M Aggies (8-4, 5-3 SEC)
Offense:
Points/Game: 28.4 (#52)
Yards/Game: 391.5 (#53)
Rush Yards/Game: 187.4 (#27)
Key Players: QB Marcel Reed (1,572 passing yards, 12 TDs), RB Amari Daniels (661 yards, 8 TDs).
Strengths: Strong ground game and efficient red zone scoring (#9 RZ scoring %).
Weaknesses: Inconsistent passing game (#93 in passing yards/game) and penalties (#122 in penalties/game).
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 22.2 (#29)
Yards Allowed/Game: 372.4 (#63)
Strengths: Effective against the run (#43 in yards/rush allowed).
Weaknesses: Losses on the defensive line due to opt-outs could impact the pass rush.
USC Trojans (6-6, 4-5 Big Ten)
Offense:
Points/Game: 29.8 (#45)
Yards/Game: 440.7 (#17)
Pass Yards/Game: 291.7 (#9)
Key Players: QB Jayden Maiava (906 passing yards, 7 TDs), WR Makai Lemon (665 yards, 3 TDs).
Strengths: High-powered passing attack with efficient pass protection (#7 in QB sack %).
Weaknesses: Running game depth depleted due to opt-outs and portal entries.
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 23.5 (#42)
Yards Allowed/Game: 371.6 (#62)
Strengths: Improved tackling and solid third-down defense (#9 in opponent 3D conversion %).
Weaknesses: Struggles in pass defense (#129 in completion % allowed).
Key Matchup Analysis
Texas A&M Ground Game vs. USC Defensive Front
Advantage: Texas A&M
The Aggies have a physical rushing attack led by Amari Daniels. USC’s defensive line ranks poorly in line yards and front-seven havoc, which could leave them vulnerable to A&M’s ground-and-pound approach.
USC Passing Attack vs. Texas A&M Secondary
Advantage: USC
Despite key opt-outs, USC’s passing attack remains a threat with Makai Lemon in the slot. Texas A&M’s secondary, which ranks 75th in coverage (PFF), will have to step up against the Trojans’ aggressive aerial approach.
Key Factors to Consider
Roster Attrition:
Both teams are missing key players due to opt-outs and transfer portal entries, but USC appears more heavily impacted, especially on offense.
Motivation and Coaching Stability:
Texas A&M enters the game with a strong statement from its players about finishing the season on a high note. USC’s coaching staff and roster are in flux, creating uncertainty.
Defense vs. Offense Trends:
USC’s defense has struggled against the run, which aligns poorly with A&M’s strengths. Conversely, USC’s passing game could challenge A&M’s secondary.
Best Bets
Texas A&M -4 (-110):
With fewer roster disruptions and a balanced attack, the Aggies are in a better position to control the game.
Over 52 (-110):
Both teams have defenses that can be exploited, and USC’s tempo (49th in plays per minute) could contribute to a higher-scoring game.
Amari Daniels Anytime TD (-125):
With Le’Veon Moss out, Daniels is the primary back for A&M and should find success against USC’s weak defensive front.
Prediction
Texas A&M’s superior ground game and overall roster stability give them the edge in this matchup. USC’s depleted roster and defensive shortcomings will likely prevent them from keeping up, though their passing game may allow them to stay competitive for part of the game.
Final Score Prediction:
Texas A&M 34, USC 24
NFL Look Ahead and Thoughts
The Cardinals might show up and give the Rams a tough time. So, I think I like Arizona at +7 and the Rams just haven’t been playing that great lately.
Carolina Panthers +7.5 in a divisional game feels like a ton of points even though I like Tampa a lot. I think it’ll be a tighter game and the Panthers have been playing good lately.
I think the Packers are better than the Vikings and they lost the first matchup with Love hurt (barely) so I feel like GB at -1 is the right call in that game.
I really like the Commanders at -3.5 on SNF and I don’t see why the Lions should not be the shit out of SF on MNF, but maybe I’m missing something there?
Final Thoughts
Hope you all are having a good end to the year! We have a lot of good opportunities to come so don’t force any big bets!
-Mike