🏀 College Basketball + Premier League - Saturday, February 22

What is up, premium!? I’ll be sending out two emails — this one goes out tonight because we got one soccer match at 4:30 AM my time and several top 25 college basketball games tipping off in the AM.

Enjoy this early taste of action! Share the newsletter with your friends and earn some cash back.

Let’s look deeper at all the top 25 action!

🕒 9:00 AM ET @ KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY

💰 Moneyline: Louisville -1250 / Florida State +720 | Total: 151.5 (-110 over / -110 under)

Key betting trends:
Florida State: 14-12 ATS, struggles on the road (2-6 SU).
Louisville: 16-10 ATS, dominant home record (10-3 SU).
Head-to-Head: Florida State has won 7 of the last 10 matchups, but Louisville won the last meeting 90-76.

Record: 16-10, 14-12 ATS

✅ Strong defensive rebounding (23.1 DRPG, 141st in NCAA)
✅ Forces turnovers (14.1 opponent TOs per game, 44th in NCAA)
✅ Excellent shot-blocking (4.9 BPG, 24th in NCAA)
✅ Gets to the free throw line (FTA/FGA ratio of 0.402, 27th in NCAA)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (31.4%, 297th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles in the first half (33.2 PPG, 224th in NCAA)
❌ Turnover-prone (12.5 TOs per game, 247th in NCAA)

Key injuries: None reported.

Record: 20-6, 16-10 ATS

✅ Efficient shooting (53.3% eFG, 74th in NCAA)
✅ Strong rebounding (38.1 RPG, 35th in NCAA)
✅ Great at limiting opponent free throw attempts (FTA/FGA of 0.269, 40th in NCAA)
✅ Consistently dominant in the first half (38.0 PPG, 39th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles from three (32.8% 3PT, 227th in NCAA)
❌ Inconsistent shot-blocking (3.0 BPG, 217th in NCAA)
❌ Allows too many assists (11.9 opponent APG, 64th in NCAA)

Key injuries: F Kasean Pryor (out), G Koren Johnson (out).

Final score: Louisville 83 - Florida State 65

Outcome: Louisville covers the spread | Key factors: Strong home advantage, rebounding dominance, and FSU’s poor shooting.

Louisville -13.5 (-115) | Reasoning: The Cardinals have covered in 6 of their last 10 games and dominate at home. Florida State’s poor outside shooting and turnover issues make it hard for them to stay competitive.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (8/10)

Louisville ML (-1250) | Reasoning: This is a lopsided matchup, with Louisville having a clear edge in multiple areas. The price is steep, but they should win comfortably.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10)

Under 151.5 (-110) | Reasoning: Florida State has gone under this total in 7 of their last 10 games, and Louisville’s defense limits opponents’ efficiency.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Chucky Hepburn - Over 5.5 assists (-122) 🔒
Reasoning: Hepburn has been the primary facilitator for Louisville, averaging 6.2 APG. He’s hit this line in 4 of the last 5 games.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Jamir Watkins - Over 16.5 points (-110) 🔒
Reasoning: Florida State’s leading scorer should have a high usage rate against Louisville’s defense, which allows perimeter players to get shots up.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Terrance Smith Jr. - Under 7.5 rebounds (-125) 🔒
Reasoning: While Smith has been solid, Florida State ranks 150th in total rebounds per game, and Louisville has a rebounding edge, making this a tough matchup for him.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Louisville -13.5 (-115)
Under 151.5 (-110)
Chucky Hepburn - Over 5.5 assists (-122)

Odds: +375 (approximate)

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10) – Moderate risk, small stake recommended.

🎯 Florida State’s poor three-point shooting makes it hard for them to keep up if Louisville jumps out early.

✅ Louisville’s strong first-half play offers value for live betting them at halftime if the line is reasonable.

📊 The under is the best value play given recent trends and Louisville’s ability to limit possessions.

🔥 Florida State’s turnover issues make it likely Louisville wins comfortably.

💰 If Louisville starts slow, consider betting their live spread in the second half.

🕒 9:00 AM ET @ Kohl Center, Madison, WI

💰 Moneyline: Wisconsin -385 / Oregon +290 | Total: 154.5 (-115 over / -105 under)

Key betting trends:
Oregon: 11-15-1 ATS, inconsistent on the road (5-4 SU).
Wisconsin: 17-8-1 ATS, dominant home record (13-1 SU).
Head-to-Head: Wisconsin has won 3 of the last 4 matchups, including a 61-58 victory last season.

Record: 19-8, 11-15-1 ATS

✅ Strong free-throw shooting (76.3%, 49th in NCAA)
✅ Balanced scoring attack (four players averaging double figures)
✅ Forces turnovers (opponents averaging 12.3 TOs per game, 145th in NCAA)
✅ Solid rebounding (35.1 RPG, 159th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles against elite defenses (49.9% opponent eFG, 126th in NCAA)
❌ Below-average three-point shooting (34.6%, 127th in NCAA)
❌ Lack of rim protection (3.6 BPG, 122nd in NCAA)

Key injuries: None reported.

Record: 21-5, 17-8-1 ATS

✅ Elite free-throw shooting (83.4%, 1st in NCAA)
✅ Highly efficient offense (55.6% eFG, 29th in NCAA)
✅ Strong ball movement (15.1 APG, 63rd in NCAA)
✅ Low turnover rate (9.8 TOs per game, 23rd in NCAA)
❌ Weak offensive rebounding (7.4 ORPG, 289th in NCAA)
❌ Poor shot-blocking (2.2 BPG, 327th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles forcing turnovers (opponents commit just 10.4 TOs per game, 310th in NCAA)

Key injuries: None reported.

Final score: Wisconsin 81 - Oregon 69

Outcome: Wisconsin covers the spread | Key factors: Oregon’s road struggles, Wisconsin’s home dominance, and free-throw efficiency.

Wisconsin -8.5 (-110) | Reasoning: The Badgers have covered in 6 of their last 10 games and have been dominant at home (13-1 SU). Oregon struggles to cover on the road.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Wisconsin ML (-385) | Reasoning: Wisconsin’s elite efficiency and home dominance make them the clear favorite, though the price is steep.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Under 154.5 (-105) | Reasoning: Wisconsin’s pace and defense should keep this game from turning into a high-scoring shootout.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Jackson Shelstad - Over 14.5 points (-120) 🔒
Reasoning: Shelstad has taken on a bigger offensive role, averaging 16 PPG in his last five games.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

John Blackwell - Over 5.5 rebounds (-110) 🔒
Reasoning: He has hit this mark in 6 of his last 8 games and should take advantage of Oregon’s rebounding struggles.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Nathan Bittle - Under 7.5 rebounds (-125) 🔒
Reasoning: Wisconsin’s defensive rebounding will limit Bittle’s second-chance opportunities.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Wisconsin -8.5 (-110)
Under 154.5 (-105)
John Blackwell - Over 5.5 rebounds (-110)

Odds: +425 (approximate)

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10) – Moderate risk, small stake recommended.

🎯 Wisconsin’s elite free-throw shooting provides late-game cover potential.

✅ If Oregon starts fast, look for live betting opportunities on Wisconsin at a better number.

📊 Wisconsin’s methodical pace makes the under more valuable.

🔥 Oregon’s three-point struggles could be a major issue against Wisconsin’s defensive scheme.

💰 If Wisconsin controls the boards early, expect a comfortable cover.

🕒 9:00 AM ET @ Reed Arena, College Station, TX

💰 Moneyline: Texas A&M -115 / Tennessee -105 | Total: 130.5 (-110 over / -110 under)

Key betting trends:
Tennessee: 14-11-1 ATS, inconsistent on the road (4-4 SU).
Texas A&M: 14-10-2 ATS, strong home record (13-3 SU).
Head-to-Head: Tennessee has won 6 of the last 9 meetings, but Texas A&M won their last matchup 85-69.

Record: 21-5, 14-11-1 ATS

✅ Elite defense (60.5 opponent PPG, 3rd in NCAA)
✅ Strong rebounding (37.9 RPG, 38th in NCAA)
✅ Efficient scoring (52.8% eFG, 89th in NCAA)
✅ Balanced offensive attack (four players averaging 10+ PPG)
❌ Inconsistent three-point shooting (34.1%, 158th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles at drawing fouls (18.6 FTA per game, 210th in NCAA)
❌ Scoring drop-off in first halves (34.3 PPG, 163rd in NCAA)

Key injuries: None reported.

Record: 20-6, 14-10-2 ATS

✅ Elite rebounding (40.9 RPG, 5th in NCAA)
✅ Strong defensive presence (65.5 opponent PPG, 26th in NCAA)
✅ Forces turnovers (14.2 opponent TOs per game, 41st in NCAA)
✅ Excellent offensive rebounding (13.2 ORPG, 1st in NCAA)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (31.3%, 300th in NCAA)
❌ Low offensive efficiency (48.1% eFG, 295th in NCAA)
❌ Free-throw struggles (68.2%, 304th in NCAA)

Key injuries: None reported.

Final score: Texas A&M 66 - Tennessee 63

Outcome: Texas A&M covers the spread | Key factors: Texas A&M’s rebounding edge, Tennessee’s inconsistent road play, and defensive battle.

Texas A&M -1.5 (-115) | Reasoning: Texas A&M has covered in 8 of their last 10 home games, and Tennessee has struggled against strong defensive teams on the road.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Texas A&M ML (-115) | Reasoning: The Aggies’ dominant rebounding and ability to control pace should be enough to edge out Tennessee in a close game.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Under 130.5 (-110) | Reasoning: Both teams have elite defenses, ranking in the top 30 in opponent PPG. Expect a slow, grind-it-out game.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Chaz Lanier - Over 15.5 points (-120) 🔒
Reasoning: Lanier has averaged 17.5 PPG this season and should be Tennessee’s primary scorer in a tough matchup.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Wade Taylor IV - Over 4.5 assists (-110) 🔒
Reasoning: Taylor has exceeded this number in 5 of his last 7 games and should be the primary facilitator in a slower-paced game.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Zakai Zeigler - Under 12.5 points (-125) 🔒
Reasoning: Facing Texas A&M’s elite defense, Zeigler may struggle to find his usual scoring rhythm. He’s gone under this number in 4 of his last 6 games.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Texas A&M -1.5 (-115)
Under 130.5 (-110)
Zakai Zeigler - Under 12.5 points (-125)

Odds: +450 (approximate)

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10) – Moderate risk, small stake recommended.

🎯 Texas A&M’s rebounding dominance makes them a strong bet in tight games.

✅ If Tennessee struggles early, live bet Texas A&M at a better number.

📊 Both teams play slower-paced basketball, favoring the under.

🔥 Texas A&M’s free-throw struggles could make late-game situations interesting.

💰 If Tennessee’s defense locks in early, expect a grind-it-out first half.

🕒 10:00 AM ET @ Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK

💰 Moneyline: Mississippi State -165 / Oklahoma +140 | Total: 149.0 (-110 over / -110 under)

Key betting trends:
Mississippi State: 12-14 ATS, strong defensive play (71.0 opponent PPG).
Oklahoma: 11-15 ATS, struggling in SEC play (3-10 conference record).
Head-to-Head: Mississippi State won the last matchup 63-62 in a defensive battle.

Record: 19-7, 12-14 ATS

✅ Strong rebounding team (38.3 RPG, 33rd in NCAA)
✅ Forces turnovers (9.5 SPG, 7th in NCAA)
✅ Efficient inside scoring (55.8% 2PT, 40th in NCAA)
✅ High-tempo offense (79.0 PPG, 48th in NCAA)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (31.6%, 279th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles at the free-throw line (68.5%, 293rd in NCAA)
❌ Road inconsistencies (8-2 away record but 5-5 ATS)

Key injuries: Kanye Clary (out - undisclosed).

Record: 16-10, 11-15 ATS

✅ Strong free-throw shooting (79.4%, 10th in NCAA)
✅ Good perimeter defense (29.8% opponent 3PT, 18th in NCAA)
✅ Capable offense (77.2 PPG, 77th in NCAA)
✅ Active hands on defense (8.2 SPG, 45th in NCAA)
❌ Poor rebounding (32.4 RPG, 291st in NCAA)
❌ Inconsistent defense (73.0 opponent PPG, 193rd in NCAA)
❌ Struggled against top teams (five-game losing streak)

Key injuries: None reported.

Final score: Mississippi State 76 - Oklahoma 71

Outcome: Mississippi State covers the spread | Key factors: Bulldogs' inside scoring, rebounding edge, and Oklahoma’s defensive struggles.

Mississippi State -3.5 (-105) | Reasoning: Oklahoma has lost five straight and is struggling defensively. Mississippi State’s inside scoring and rebounding should give them the edge.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Mississippi State ML (-165) | Reasoning: The Bulldogs have dominated in key matchups and are trending upward. Their defense and inside presence should be enough to take down Oklahoma.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Under 149.0 (-110) | Reasoning: Mississippi State’s defense has been excellent, and Oklahoma has struggled offensively during their losing streak. Expect a lower-scoring game.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Josh Hubbard - Over 17.5 points (-120) 🔒
Reasoning: Hubbard has been the Bulldogs' go-to scorer, averaging 17.8 PPG. He put up 25 in his last game and should dominate Oklahoma’s weak interior defense.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Jeremiah Fears - Over 4.5 assists (-110) 🔒
Reasoning: Oklahoma’s offense runs through Fears, and he’s recorded 5+ assists in 4 of his last 6 games. Expect him to facilitate in a fast-paced game.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Jalon Moore - Under 14.5 points (-125) 🔒
Reasoning: Moore has struggled during Oklahoma’s losing streak, averaging just 12.3 PPG in his last five. Mississippi State’s defense should keep him in check.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Mississippi State -3.5 (-105)
Under 149.0 (-110)
Jalon Moore - Under 14.5 points (-125)

Odds: +400 (approximate)

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10) – Moderate risk, small stake recommended.

🎯 Mississippi State’s rebounding edge makes them a solid play.

✅ If Oklahoma starts hot, live bet Mississippi State at a better number.

📊 Oklahoma’s struggles in SEC play suggest fading them against strong teams.

🔥 Mississippi State’s inside scoring advantage should dictate the game.

💰 If the game starts slow, consider doubling down on the under in live betting.

🕒 10:00 AM ET @ United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX

💰 Moneyline: Texas Tech -714 / West Virginia +500 | Total: 135.5 (-110 over / -110 under)

Key betting trends:
West Virginia: 10-16 ATS, struggles offensively (69.2 PPG, 275th in NCAA).
Texas Tech: 14-12 ATS, dominant home team (14-2 SU at home).
Head-to-Head: Texas Tech won the last meeting 81-70 and has covered in 6 of their last 10 home games.

Record: 16-10, 10-16 ATS

✅ Strong defense (64.2 opponent PPG, 12th in NCAA)
✅ Decent three-point defense (28.9% opponent 3PT, 6th in NCAA)
✅ Plays at a slow pace, limiting opponent scoring opportunities
❌ Weak offense (69.2 PPG, 275th in NCAA)
❌ Poor rebounding (33.3 RPG, 255th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles at the free-throw line (73.2%, 139th in NCAA)

Key injuries: None reported.

Record: 20-6, 14-12 ATS

✅ Elite offense (81.8 PPG, 17th in NCAA)
✅ Efficient shooting (38.3% 3PT, 17th in NCAA)
✅ Strong ball movement (17.2 APG, 12th in NCAA)
✅ Solid defense (67.1 opponent PPG, 42nd in NCAA)
❌ Low free-throw attempt rate (FTA/FGA: 0.295, 291st in NCAA)
❌ Below-average shot-blocking (2.8 BPG, 238th in NCAA)

Key injuries: None reported.

Final score: Texas Tech 75 - West Virginia 60

Outcome: Texas Tech covers the spread | Key factors: West Virginia’s weak offense, Texas Tech’s home dominance, and defensive intensity.

Texas Tech -11.5 (-110) | Reasoning: The Red Raiders have won 8 of their last 10 at home and should control this game against a struggling West Virginia squad.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Texas Tech ML (-714) | Reasoning: Too much firepower on offense, combined with their strong defense and home-court advantage, makes Texas Tech the clear favorite.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Under 135.5 (-110) | Reasoning: Both teams play at a slow tempo, and West Virginia struggles offensively. Expect a methodical, low-scoring game.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (8/10)

Pop Isaacs - Over 16.5 points (-120) 🔒
Reasoning: Isaacs is Texas Tech’s leading scorer and has cleared this mark in 4 of his last 5 games.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Darrion Williams - Over 5.5 rebounds (-110) 🔒
Reasoning: Williams has hit this in 7 of his last 10 games and should take advantage of West Virginia’s weak rebounding.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Joe Toussaint - Under 11.5 points (-125) 🔒
Reasoning: Toussaint has failed to hit this number in 4 of his last 6 games and faces a tough Texas Tech defense.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Texas Tech -11.5 (-110)
Under 135.5 (-110)
Joe Toussaint - Under 11.5 points (-125)

Odds: +425 (approximate)

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10) – Moderate risk, small stake recommended.

🎯 Texas Tech’s ability to control tempo makes them a strong play at home.

✅ If West Virginia keeps it close early, consider live betting Texas Tech at a better number.

📊 Both teams rank low in pace, making unders a strong trend.

🔥 West Virginia’s lack of rebounding and Texas Tech’s efficiency should dictate the game.

💰 If Texas Tech jumps out to a big lead early, look for live unders as they slow the game down.

🕒 11:00 AM ET @ Fertitta Center, Houston, TX

💰 Moneyline: Houston -909 / Iowa State +590 | Total: 133.5 (-110 over / -110 under)

Key betting trends:
Iowa State: 14-12 ATS, averaging 81.3 PPG (21st in NCAA).
Houston: 15-11 ATS, elite defense allowing just 57.6 PPG (1st in NCAA).
Head-to-Head: Iowa State has won 4 of the last 5 meetings, including a 69-41 win last season.

Record: 21-5, 14-12 ATS

✅ Strong offense (81.3 PPG, 21st in NCAA)
✅ Excellent free-throw shooting (74.8%, 87th in NCAA)
✅ Solid rebounding (36.7 RPG, 83rd in NCAA)
❌ Below-average three-point shooting (34.8%, 121st in NCAA)
❌ Turnover-prone (11.5 TO/G, 143rd in NCAA)
❌ Road struggles (6-4 away record)

Key injuries: None reported.

Record: 22-4, 15-11 ATS

✅ Elite defense (57.6 opponent PPG, 1st in NCAA)
✅ Strong rebounding (37.0 RPG, 67th in NCAA)
✅ Great three-point shooting (39.4%, 6th in NCAA)
✅ Home-court dominance (14-3 at home)
❌ Low free-throw attempt rate (FTA/FGA: 0.269, 337th in NCAA)
❌ Slower offensive pace (75.4 PPG, 108th in NCAA)

Key injuries: None reported.

Final score: Houston 72 - Iowa State 58

Outcome: Houston covers the spread | Key factors: Iowa State’s road struggles, Houston’s defensive dominance, and rebounding advantage.

Houston -12.5 (-110) | Reasoning: Houston has covered in 9 of its last 10 home games and should overpower Iowa State with elite defense and rebounding.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Houston ML (-909) | Reasoning: The Cougars are nearly unbeatable at home, boasting a 14-3 record and an elite defensive unit.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Under 133.5 (-110) | Reasoning: Houston's defense dictates the tempo, and Iowa State will struggle to score against the best defensive team in the country.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (8/10)

LJ Cryer - Over 14.5 points (-120) 🔒
Reasoning: Cryer has hit this mark in 5 of his last 6 games and remains Houston’s primary scorer.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Curtis Jones - Under 17.5 points (-115) 🔒
Reasoning: Facing Houston’s top-ranked defense, Jones will have difficulty getting clean looks. He has gone under this number in 3 of his last 5 games.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

J’Wan Roberts - Over 7.5 rebounds (-110) 🔒
Reasoning: Roberts has cleared this line in 6 of his last 8 games, and Iowa State struggles on the glass.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10)

Houston -12.5 (-110)
Under 133.5 (-110)
Curtis Jones - Under 17.5 points (-115)

Odds: +450 (approximate)

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10) – Moderate risk, small stake recommended.

🎯 Houston’s elite home record makes them a strong play to cover.

✅ If Iowa State starts hot, look for live betting Houston at a better number.

📊 Houston’s slow pace and defensive dominance make unders a strong trend.

🔥 Iowa State’s turnover issues could be a key factor in Houston covering the spread.

💰 If Houston builds an early lead, expect a methodical second half leading to an easy under.

🕒 4:30 AM PST @ Goodison Park, Liverpool, England

💰 Moneyline: Everton +150 / Manchester United +190 | Total: 2.5 (+118 over / -150 under)

Key betting trends:

Record: 14th in Premier League

✅ Solid home performances, avoiding defeat in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
✅ Forward Beto in excellent form, with 6 shots on target in his last 3 games.
❌ Poor head-to-head record against United, losing the last 5 meetings.

Key injuries: Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Youssef Chermiti, and Armando Broja are unavailable.

Record: 15th in Premier League

✅ Key players Christian Eriksen, Manuel Ugarte, and Leny Yoro returning from injury.
✅ Bruno Fernandes remains a creative force, averaging 2.2 key passes per game.
❌ Defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 35 goals in 25 games (1.4 goals per game).
❌ Scored just once in their last two away matches.

Key injuries: Amad Diallo, Marcus Rashford, and Lisandro Martínez remain out.

Final score: Everton 1 - Manchester United 1

Outcome: Draw | Key factors: Everton’s strong home form and United’s defensive struggles, but neither side is clinical enough to secure all three points.

Spread pick
Everton +0.5 (-125) | Reasoning: Everton has been tough to beat at home, and United’s inconsistencies make a draw or Everton result likely.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Moneyline pick 🔒
Draw (+195) | Reasoning: United’s defensive issues and Everton’s home advantage suggest a tightly contested match with limited scoring.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Total points 🔒
Under 2.5 (-150) | Reasoning: Both teams have struggled offensively, and United’s past meetings with Everton have been low-scoring affairs.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Beto - Over 1.5 shots on target (-110)
Reasoning: Beto has been in electric form with 6 shots on target in his last 3 games.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Carlos Alcaraz - Over 2.5 shots (+120)
Reasoning: Started for the first time vs. Palace, registered 3 shots on target and 5 total shots. United’s defense allows over 5 shots on target per game.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)

Under 9.5 corners (-105)
Reasoning: Neither team is expected to dominate attacking play. This has hit in Everton’s last two games, and United averages just 5 corners per game.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (6/10)

Both teams to score (-140)
Reasoning: United has kept clean sheets in the last 4 head-to-head matchups, but Everton’s home form suggests they’ll get on the scoresheet. United has conceded 35 goals in 25 games (1.4 per game), and key defensive injuries could play a role.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (8/10)

Draw (+195)
Under 2.5 (-150)
Both teams to score (-140)

Odds: +525 (approximate)

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10) – Moderate risk, small stake recommended

🎯 Everton’s home form makes them a solid pick to avoid defeat.

✅ If United scores first, live betting Everton at a better price could hold value.

📊 This match projects as a tight, low-scoring affair with both teams struggling in attack.

🔥 United’s defensive injuries could create value on Everton shot props.