Take Virginia +7
Why Virginia is the bet at +7.
Virginia is a home underdog. They’re not a bad team. They’ve beaten all the bad teams they’ve faced by a lot and only lost to NC state by 4 points on the road – a game they controlled in the first half.
Florida State is in a massive look ahead spot, facing Miami next week.
Over 70% of the cash and money is on FSU. Nearly 99% of cash is on FSU ML and 94% of tickets on FSU ML
Virginia’s QB has been solid and consistent. He’s a 5-year player and rates well again this year on PFF. He’s had 1 INT this year, does not make a lot of mistakes, had 31 TDs last year and can use his legs a bit with two games around 50 yards rushing.
On Defense, Virginia has a really good defensive line and they appear to have solid safety play and LB play. Their weakness is at corner. FSU's offensive line, especially on the left side does not grade very well, which is where VA’s defensive strength is at.
Virginia has a solid offensive line and FSU defense does not appear to be elite in terms of grades so far this year. FSU defense has not graded well against the pass.
Castellanos has been good this year, but he had several games last year where he was inconsistent and he’s prone to injury with his tiny frame – was hurt several times last season.
Virginia appears to have advantages at offensive and defensive line. This is really the most important part of keeping a game close.
Virginia grades out as the #12 overall team on PFF right now, while FSU grades out at #22 overall.
FSU biggest weakness is tackling and pass rush.
Virginia’s biggest weakness is pass blocking. No major advantages for FSU.
Virginia’s defense ranks very high on PFF and so does their special teams.
Summary: This is a great spot to take Virginia with the points. FSU has all the bets on them + look ahead spot to Miami next week + on the road + facing a quality team that has a good offensive and defensive line.