What a wild week. Where do I even start?
I went on a rant about the college football transfer portal yesterday. Let’s just say this is another stupid decision for how to do things in CFB. In fact, why the fuck do we even have these shitty bowl games anyway? I assume it’s just for advertisers, but come on… we are forced to bet on this shit and we aren’t getting proper information! 🤣
In the financial world, the markets across the board are crashing because this dumb ass Federal Reserve (who should not exist by the way) decided to reduce the amount of rate cuts projected for next year.
So, that means higher risk assets (crypto, tech, etc.) are not as valuable in an environment with higher rates. So, everything got destroyed. Thanks, guys… I’ll buy more down here.
Random Things From This Week 🤔
Never forget the Bears starting QB paints his fingers nails (pink shown here) and rocks a pink phone. This isn’t going to end well for Chicago. It seems like the Bears just caught the tail end of the woke era with their selection.
The story of crypto (see one example below). I don’t think we are completely done for yet on this cycle. There are lots of big-time things happening within technology combining the use of crypto projects with AI and I expect continued growth. As always, it is a bumpy ride — just gotta hold on and pick good spots to get in and out! Right, now I just look away :).
I was watching this live and it had me dying laughing. He did a bunch more before this also. 🤣
I’ve never seen someone empty the quiver into a guy like this
— #Dillon Cheverere (#@DCheverere)
1:27 AM • Dec 19, 2024
Draymond Green made NBA history last night. Stats: 0 PTS 0 REB 0 AST 0 BLK 0-4 FG -42
CFB Betting Analysis and Picks for Dec 20 and Dec 21
Ohio (-4.5) vs. Jacksonville State
Summary: Probably stay away from this one or take the under.
Key Matchups
Ohio's Rushing Attack vs. Jacksonville State’s Run Defense:
Ohio excels at pounding the ball on the ground. Jacksonville State’s inability to consistently stop the run gives the Bobcats a clear edge here.
Jacksonville State’s Ground Game vs. Ohio’s Run Defense:
Jacksonville State relies heavily on their run game, but Ohio’s defense is elite at shutting down the run, allowing just 3.2 YPC (#11).
Coaching Dynamics:
Both teams are under interim coaches, which adds unpredictability. Ohio’s roster stability may give them an edge in executing the game plan.
Betting Recommendations
Spread: Ohio -4.5
Ohio’s dominant rushing attack and stout defense give them a decisive advantage.
Jacksonville State will struggle to replicate its ground-game success against Ohio’s top-tier run defense.
Confidence Level: 8/10.
Moneyline: Ohio (-200)
Safer play, as Ohio’s balanced team profile and lack of key opt-outs make them the more reliable choice.
Confidence Level: 9/10.
Total: Under 56.0
Both teams will lean heavily on the run, which tends to shorten games.
Ohio’s defense should limit Jacksonville State’s scoring opportunities, while the Bobcats’ methodical offense may keep the game low-scoring.
Confidence Level: 7/10.
Florida (-10.5) vs. Tulane
Summary: I like the under and I like Florida even though the movement has been pretty crazy. I’ll probably parlay under and FL Moneyline.
Key Matchups
Tulane’s Rushing Attack vs. Florida’s Run Defense:
Tulane relies heavily on the ground game. Florida’s inconsistent run defense provides an opportunity, but the absence of a passing threat may allow the Gators to load the box.
Florida’s Balanced Offense vs. Tulane’s Defense:
DJ Lagway’s dual-threat ability gives Florida versatility against a Tulane defense that has struggled against SEC-level talent.
Quarterback Play:
Tulane’s backup QB Ty Thompson is a major unknown, while Florida’s DJ Lagway has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly during their late-season surge.
Betting Recommendations
Spread: Florida -10.5
Florida’s superior roster depth and late-season momentum provide a significant edge.
Tulane’s lack of a reliable QB option and recent defensive struggles make it unlikely they can keep pace.
Confidence Level: 8/10.
Moneyline: Florida (-410)
Florida’s SEC-tested talent and recent dominance make them the safer pick.
Confidence Level: 9/10.
Total: Under 49.5
Tulane’s offensive downgrade at QB combined with Florida’s defensive improvements suggest a lower-scoring affair.
Expect both teams to lean heavily on the run, leading to a slower pace of play.
Confidence Level: 7/10.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame (-7)
Summary: I like ND at -7.
Key Matchups
Notre Dame’s Rushing Attack vs. Indiana’s Run Defense:
Notre Dame’s run game is its strength, but Indiana boasts the best rush defense in the country. If Indiana can contain Leonard and Love, they can force Notre Dame into uncomfortable passing situations.
Indiana’s Passing Game vs. Notre Dame’s Secondary:
Kurtis Rourke leads a high-powered passing attack. However, Notre Dame’s secondary is elite and thrives on forcing turnovers.
Red Zone Efficiency:
Indiana leads the nation in red zone offense, while Notre Dame ranks fifth in red zone defense. This battle could decide the game.
Turnovers:
Both teams excel in turnover margin. Whichever team wins this battle will likely have the upper hand.
Why I like Notre Dame (-7)
Indiana’s Struggles vs. Elite Defenses:
Against Ohio State, Indiana’s offense was completely outmatched, putting up just 15 points and struggling to sustain drives. Notre Dame’s defense is comparable to Ohio State’s in both talent and metrics.
Notre Dame allows just 13.6 points per game (#3 in the nation), and they excel at limiting explosive plays and forcing turnovers. If Indiana couldn’t move the ball on Ohio State, they’ll likely face similar issues here.
Notre Dame’s Balanced Attack:
Notre Dame has a dominant rushing attack (6.3 yards per carry, #2 in the nation) that wears down opposing defenses. Indiana is strong against the run, but their front will be tested over four quarters.
QB Riley Leonard’s dual-threat ability will also challenge Indiana’s defense, especially if the Irish lean on designed runs and play-action to keep them off balance.
Home-Field Advantage and Momentum:
This is Notre Dame’s first home game in the expanded playoff format, and the atmosphere in South Bend will be electric. The crowd and environment give the Irish an extra edge, especially for a team like Indiana, which hasn’t faced many hostile road environments this season.
Depth and Roster Talent:
Notre Dame has significantly more depth, particularly in the trenches. Indiana has good starters but lacks the depth to rotate effectively against Notre Dame’s physical run game and pass rush.
SMU vs. Penn State (-8)
Summary: I want to like SMU because everyone thinks PSU is going to kill them. SMU has only lost by 3 points or less all year! They’re talented and well-rounded but idk if I can make the bet.
Key Matchups:
1. SMU’s Offense vs. Penn State’s Defense
SMU thrives through the air with Jennings and WRs Roderick Daniels Jr. and Key'Shawn Smith, but they face a Penn State secondary allowing just 6.2 yards per pass (22nd nationally). The Mustangs' rushing attack, led by Brashard Smith, faces a stiff test against the Nittany Lions’ defense, which ranks 6th in rush EPA allowed.
2. Penn State’s Ground Game vs. SMU’s Rush Defense
Penn State leans heavily on its rushing duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who’ve combined for over 1,600 rushing yards. SMU’s defense ranks 7th in rushing yards allowed per game, setting up a physical battle in the trenches.
3. Kevin Jennings’ Mobility
SMU’s quarterback is a dual-threat who has rushed for nearly 400 yards this season. His ability to escape pressure and make plays on the move will be critical against Penn State’s strong defensive line, led by Abdul Carter (10 sacks).
Best Bets:
Over 54.0 (-110)
Both teams feature high-powered offenses, and the total has been trending upward. Expect a back-and-forth game with each team scoring into the 20s.
NFL Betting Analysis and Picks for Dec 21
Texans vs. Chiefs (-3.5)
Key Matchups:
Joe Mixon vs. Chiefs Run Defense
Mixon’s rushing prop is set at 60.5 yards, and he’s projected to see a heavy workload to help Houston control the clock. With Kansas City’s struggles against the run, this is a favorable matchup for the Texans.Texans’ Secondary vs. Mahomes
Houston’s defense leads the league in opponent completion percentage and interceptions. Mahomes will need to be sharp to avoid costly turnovers.Chiefs’ Offensive Line vs. Texans’ Pass Rush
The Texans generate pressure at a high rate, and Mahomes’ mobility could be limited due to his ankle injury. Kansas City’s offensive line must step up to protect their star QB.
Betting Trends:
The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.
The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Under is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games.
Best Bets:
Joe Mixon Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Mixon should see a heavy workload.Texans +3.5 (-110)
With a strong defense and questions surrounding Mahomes’ mobility, Houston can keep this close.Under 42.0 (-110)
Both defenses are solid, and the potential for Mahomes to be less than 100% could limit scoring.
Steelers vs. Ravens (-6.5)
Key Matchups:
Steelers' Run Game vs. Ravens' Rush Defense
Pittsburgh relies heavily on its run game (51.1% run play percentage), but Baltimore allows only 80.7 rushing yards per game, the best in the league. If Najee Harris is bottled up, the Steelers will struggle to move the chains.Lamar Jackson vs. Steelers’ Secondary
Jackson is Pro Football Focus’ top-graded passer in 2024, and the Steelers’ secondary has allowed 7.0 yards per pass. Look for Jackson to connect with Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews for explosive plays.Steelers’ Pass Rush vs. Ravens’ Offensive Line
Pittsburgh’s defense generates pressure, but Baltimore’s offensive line has allowed a sack on just 5.15% of dropbacks. If the Steelers can’t disrupt Jackson, it could be a long day.
Betting Trends:
The Steelers are 13-2-2 ATS as underdogs against the Ravens under Mike Tomlin.
The Ravens are 8-6 ATS this season, including 3-3 as favorites of 6+ points.
The Under has hit in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams.
Best Bets:
Ravens -6.5 (-110)
Baltimore has the offensive firepower and defensive depth to win comfortably, especially with Lamar Jackson in top form and Pittsburgh’s offense struggling without Pickens.Under 45.0 (-115)
AFC North battles are often low-scoring, grind-it-out affairs, and cold December weather could limit offensive production. Pitt is going to have trouble scoring as well.Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+225)
Andrews is a red-zone favorite for Lamar Jackson and has scored in three straight games. Feels like the type of game where he grabs another TD.
This Week & Some Tik Tok
I’ll be diving deeper into every game in my videos so be on the lookout for that and make sure you follow me at https://www.tiktok.com/@mintedbets — I’m putting a lot of effort into building that out.
Pretty funny (to me, at least) that I am on Tik Tok when I spent the last 5 years hating Tik Tok 😬. Idk… I just like the format of being able to talk about things and analyze on the fly and it’s working! In like 3 months I’ve grown from zero to almost 14,000 followers, which is kinda nuts. So, if you’re thinking about doing something on there, just do it and don’t think about it. It’ll work.
That’s all for now! Happy holidays and Merry Christmas!🎅🏻
-Mike