I always run the data and analysis with 10+ inputs for every football game. Today, the projection was Notre Dame to cover. I don’t really agree with the decision so I’ll be playing this differently, but I’ve included my analysis for the game below (untainted by my own feelings!).
My favorite bet is Ohio State ML + OSU -1.5 first half + Under 22.5 first half (parlay). I’m rolling with that and looking for live bets.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame National Championship Matchup Analysis
Game Details
Date: Monday, January 20, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
TV: ESPN
Spread: Ohio State -8.0 (-115), Notre Dame +8.0 (-105)
Moneyline: Ohio State -400, Notre Dame +300
Total: Over 45.5 (-115), Under 45.5 (-105)
Team Profiles
Ohio State Buckeyes (#8)
Record: 13-2
Offense:
Points/Game: 35.8 (#8)
Yards/Game: 428.4 (#25)
Key Players:
QB Will Howard: 3,779 passing yards, 33 TDs, 10 INTs, 72.6% completion rate
RB TreVeyon Henderson: 967 rushing yards, 10 TDs
RB Quinshon Judkins: 960 rushing yards, 12 TDs
WR Jeremiah Smith: 1,227 receiving yards, 14 TDs
WR Emeka Egbuka: 947 receiving yards, 10 TDs
Strengths: Explosive plays, balanced rushing and passing attack
Weaknesses: Occasionally conservative play-calling in big games
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 12.2 (#1)
Sacks: 51 (#1 in CFP)
Key Players:
DE J.T. Tuimoloau: 11.5 sacks
LB Cody Simon: 104 tackles, 7 sacks
Strengths: Elite pass rush, strong run defense
Weaknesses: Susceptible to dynamic, mobile quarterbacks
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (#7)
Record: 14-1
Offense:
Points/Game: 37.0 (#3)
Yards/Game: 405.2 (#43)
Key Players:
QB Riley Leonard: 2,606 passing yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs; 866 rushing yards, 16 TDs
RB Jeremiyah Love: 1,122 rushing yards, 17 TDs
RB Jadarian Price: 733 rushing yards, 7 TDs
WR Jaden Greathouse: 464 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Strengths: Dominant ground game, mobile QB, strong offensive line
Weaknesses: Lack of explosive playmakers in the passing game
Defense:
Points Allowed/Game: 14.3 (#2)
Turnovers Forced: 19 interceptions (#5 in CFP)
Key Players:
S Xavier Watts: 6 INTs
DL Rylie Mills: 7.5 sacks
Strengths: Elite secondary, opportunistic defense
Weaknesses: Vulnerable to strong rushing attacks
Key Matchups
Ohio State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
Jeremiah Smith vs. Irish Secondary:
Notre Dame’s secondary is elite, leading the nation in opponent completion percentage (50.7%). Smith was shut down by Texas but remains the most dangerous player on the field.
Ohio State Rushing Duo vs. Notre Dame Front Seven:
Notre Dame’s defense allows 3.7 yards per carry, but Henderson and Judkins are a dynamic duo capable of exploiting this matchup if the Irish focus too heavily on stopping the pass.
Notre Dame Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Riley Leonard vs. Ohio State Pass Rush:
Leonard has rushed for 866 yards and 16 TDs, making him a dual-threat QB. Ohio State’s 51 sacks this season will test Notre Dame’s pass protection.
Jeremiyah Love vs. Ohio State Run Defense:
Love must play a pivotal role, but Ohio State allows only 90.3 rushing yards per game (#3 in the nation).
Betting Trends
Ohio State:
10-5 ATS in their last 15 games.
7-2 ATS against teams with a winning record.
12-0 SU when scoring at least 28 points.
Notre Dame:
11-3 ATS in their last 14 games.
6-0 SU as an underdog of fewer than 10 points in 2024-25.
13-game win streak since Week 2.
Prediction and Betting Recommendations
Final Score Prediction:
Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 20
Best Bets (According to the Data!):
Notre Dame +8.0 (-105):
The Irish’s defense and ability to control the clock with their run game will keep this game close.
Under 45.5 (-110):
Both teams boast elite defenses, and the game script favors a slow, grind-it-out style.
Jeremiyah Love Anytime TD (+130):
Love is Notre Dame’s offensive centerpiece and a good bet to find the end zone.
TreVeyon Henderson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110):
Henderson’s explosiveness will likely result in a few big gains.
Summary
This game is a clash of blue-blood programs with contrasting styles. Ohio State’s balanced offense and defensive dominance give them an edge, but Notre Dame’s ability to grind out games and create turnovers keeps them competitive. Expect a tightly contested, defensive battle in Atlanta.
NBA Bets & Best Picks for Today, January 20th
Best Picks (Ranked by Confidence)
Kevin Durant Over 27.5 Points (-115)
Confidence: 9/10
Durant’s scoring surge and key offensive role for Phoenix against a tough Cleveland defense.Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-120)
Confidence: 9/10
Edwards has been the Timberwolves' primary scorer, averaging over 30 PPG in his last 10 games.Miles Bridges Over 19.5 Points (-106)
Confidence: 8/10
Consistent scoring output in recent games and a favorable matchup against Dallas' defense.Alperen Sengun Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (-125)
Confidence: 8/10
Sengun’s dominance on the boards and as a facilitator makes this a strong value play.Clippers -6.0 (-110)
Confidence: 8/10
L.A.’s stellar home ATS record and defensive strength against a struggling Bulls team.Desmond Bane Over 18.5 Points (-115)
Confidence: 8/10
Reliable scorer for Memphis, clearing this mark consistently in recent games.Norman Powell Over 22.5 Points (-110)
Confidence: 8/10
Powell’s recent scoring form and the Bulls’ weak perimeter defense make this highly favorable.Pistons +8.0 (-110)
Confidence: 8/10
Detroit’s strong ATS as road underdogs and Houston’s inconsistencies favor the Pistons to cover.Kristaps Porzingis Over 2.5 Threes (-118) Confidence: 8/10
Porzingis has hit this mark in four of his last five games. Against a defense allowing 36.0% from deep, he should find open looks.CJ McCollum Over 3.5 Threes (-120)
Confidence: 8/10
Excellent recent shooting and a favorable matchup against Utah’s struggling perimeter defense.LaMelo Ball Under 30.5 Points: Confidence 8/10
Mavericks vs. Hornets
Game Details:
Date/Time: January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
Location: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Spread: Mavericks -5.5 (-110) | Hornets +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Mavericks -225 | Hornets +185
Total: O/U 223.0 (-110)
Matchup Breakdown:
Dallas Mavericks
Current Form:
Dallas has struggled without Luka Doncic, going 4-8 in their last 12 games. However, Kyrie Irving's recent return provided a spark as they secured a 106-98 win against the Thunder, the top team in the West. Despite the absence of Luka, the Mavericks rank 12th in offensive efficiency, averaging 115.4 points per game but have been held below 110 in five of their last eight losses.Key Players:
Kyrie Irving: Averaging 23.9 PPG, 4.8 APG, and 1.3 SPG, Irving is the focal point of the offense in Luka's absence. His return from injury is critical for Dallas' playoff push.
Klay Thompson: Providing 13.7 PPG and a strong perimeter presence with 3.0 3PM per game.
P.J. Washington: A versatile forward averaging 13.1 PPG and 7.8 RPG, contributing on both ends.
Injury Concerns:
Out: Luka Doncic, Dante Exum
Questionable: Dereck Lively II, Dwight Powell, Jaden Hardy
Charlotte Hornets
Current Form:
Charlotte is riding a rare two-game win streak, including close victories over the Jazz and Bulls. Despite their struggles this season, the Hornets have shown signs of life, especially with strong performances from LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges. Offensively, they rank 28th in the league (107.0 PPG), but their 14th-ranked defense (112.7 OPPG) has kept them competitive.Key Players:
LaMelo Ball: The clear leader, averaging 29.5 PPG and 7.5 APG. His playmaking is crucial for Charlotte's offensive flow.
Miles Bridges: Averaging 18.4 PPG and 7.6 RPG, Bridges has scored 21+ points in four straight games.
Mark Williams: A dominant presence in the paint, averaging 14.5 PPG and 9.3 RPG, with a recent 19-point, 19-rebound outing.
Injury Concerns:
Out: Brandon Miller
Questionable: Tre Mann
Statistical Insights:
Mavericks:
Points in Paint: 48.9 PPG (13th) vs. Hornets’ 46.9 OPPG (11th).
3-Point Shooting: 37.2% (9th) vs. Hornets’ 35.2% defense (9th).
Struggled ATS on the road (2-9 in their last 11).
Hornets:
Offensive Rebounds: 27.9% (3rd) vs. Mavericks’ 24.9% defensive rebound rate (14th).
Bridges and Williams dominate the boards, giving Charlotte second-chance opportunities.
3-1 ATS in their last 4 games.
Best Bets:
1. Player Prop Bets
Miles Bridges Over 19.5 Points (-106):
Bridges has scored 21+ points in four straight games and is the Hornets’ second offensive option. He faces a Dallas defense ranked 12th but struggling to contain athletic forwards.Kyrie Irving Over 24.5 Points (-125):
Irving is the Mavericks’ primary offensive weapon without Luka. He’s coming off a 25-point game and will need to lead Dallas offensively again.Mark Williams Over 12.5 Rebounds (+110):
Williams is a dominant rebounder, coming off a 19-rebound performance. He faces a Dallas team missing several big men, giving him the opportunity to clean the glass.
2. Game Bets
Spread: Hornets +5.5 (-110)
The Mavericks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games, while the Hornets have covered in three straight. Charlotte’s defense, paired with their rebounding edge, makes them a solid bet to keep this close.Total: Under 223.0 (-110)
Both teams rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency over the last 10 games (Dallas 12th, Charlotte 7th). Combined with offensive inconsistencies, this points to a low-scoring game.
Final Prediction:
The Mavericks are the more talented team, but without Luka Doncic, they’ve struggled on the road. Charlotte’s recent form and rebounding dominance give them a legitimate shot to cover the spread, especially with LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges in strong form.
Prediction: Mavericks 109, Hornets 106
Best Bets: Hornets +5.5, Under 223.0, Bridges Over 19.5 Points.
Detroit Pistons vs. Houston Rockets
The Detroit Pistons (21-21) travel to face the Houston Rockets (28-13) at the Toyota Center. The Rockets are substantial favorites, entering as 8.0-point home chalk, boasting one of the league's best defenses and an offensive rebounding advantage. The Pistons have been competitive against the spread (ATS) in similar situations but face a tough challenge against Houston’s physical and disciplined style of play.
Betting Lines
Spread: Rockets -8.0 (-110), Pistons +8.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Rockets -330, Pistons +265
Total: O223.5 (-110), U223.5 (-110)
Key Matchup Stats
Stat | Pistons | Rockets |
Points/Game | 112.3 (#15) | 114.2 (#12) |
Opponent Points/Game | 113.5 (#16) | 107.9 (#4) |
Rebounds/Game | 53.2 (#8) | 58.4 (#1) |
Offensive Rebounds/Game | 11.2 (#11) | 14.6 (#1) |
Defensive Efficiency (Last 10) | 6th | 13th |
FG% | 46.7% (#14) | 44.9% (#22) |
Opponent FG% | 46.9% (#18) | 45.0% (#3) |
Game Analysis
The Rockets have been dominant at home and boast a defense ranked fourth in points allowed and third in opponent field goal percentage. Their ability to control the boards (league-best offensive rebounding percentage) generates second-chance opportunities, giving them an edge over Detroit’s respectable rebounding squad. Alperen Sengun anchors the Rockets' inside scoring and rebounding, complemented by Jalen Green’s perimeter scoring. The Pistons’ lack of efficient offensive playmakers outside Cade Cunningham leaves them reliant on high-effort defense and transition opportunities.
Detroit, while middle-of-the-pack offensively, is formidable defensively (6th in defensive efficiency over the last 10 games). However, they’ve struggled in recent outings to contain teams with strong interior presences, as seen in losses to Phoenix and Indiana. The Pistons’ challenge will be slowing down Houston’s interior attack and keeping Sengun off the glass.
Pistons vs. Rockets
Pick Against the Spread: Pistons +8.0 (-110)
The Pistons have been excellent ATS as road underdogs, covering in 11 of their last 15 such contests. They’ve also covered +8.0 in 2 straight games against Houston. Detroit’s defensive efficiency can help keep the game within the number.Total Pick: Under 223.5 (-110)
Both teams rank top-15 in defensive efficiency, with Detroit playing slower-paced games recently. Houston’s defense limiting opponents’ three-point shooting should also suppress scoring opportunities.
Player Prop Bets
Alperen Sengun Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (-125)
Sengun has logged back-to-back double-digit rebound games and averaged 6.0 assists over his last 5 contests. With key Rockets rebounders sidelined, expect Sengun to dominate the glass and facilitate the offense.Cade Cunningham Under 27.5 Points (-133)
Cunningham has faced increased defensive attention and has gone under this mark in 4 of his last 5 games. Houston’s top-5 defense should limit his efficiency.Jalen Green Over 23.5 Points (-110)
Green has averaged 28.7 points over his last 10 games while shooting 46.1% from beyond the arc. With Detroit struggling to defend the perimeter, Green should have a strong scoring output.
Final Score Prediction
Houston Rockets 112, Detroit Pistons 106
The Rockets’ defense and rebounding advantage should secure the win, but Detroit’s recent defensive form makes them a solid pick to cover the spread. Expect a low-scoring, competitive affair dominated by Sengun and Green for Houston, while Cunningham leads Detroit’s efforts.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Game Overview
The Minnesota Timberwolves (22-20) visit the Memphis Grizzlies (27-15) in a Western Conference matchup at FedExForum. Both teams have shown contrasting strengths: Minnesota relies on defensive discipline, while Memphis boasts a high-octane offense. The Grizzlies are slight 5.0-point home favorites with a total set at 235.0 points.
Betting Lines
Spread: Grizzlies -5.0 (-105), Timberwolves +5.0 (-115)
Moneyline: Grizzlies -180, Timberwolves +155
Total: O235.0 (-110), U235.0 (-110)
Key Matchup Stats
Stat | Timberwolves | Grizzlies |
Points/Game | 110.1 (#22) | 123.4 (#1) |
Opponent Points/Game | 108.0 (#5) | 115.1 (#22) |
Avg Score Margin | +2.0 (#12) | +8.3 (#4) |
Effective FG % | 55.1% (#11) | 56.1% (#6) |
Opp Effective FG % | 52.6% (#7) | 52.3% (#3) |
Rebounds/Game | 51.6 (#18) | 57.4 (#2) |
Turnovers/Game | 15.5 (#20) | 16.6 (#30) |
Fastbreak Pts/Gm | 13.4 (#26) | 16.8 (#8) |
Game Analysis
The Grizzlies’ top-ranked offense (123.4 PPG) faces a strong Timberwolves defense allowing just 108.0 PPG (5th). Memphis thrives on their interior dominance (2nd in points in the paint) and elite rebounding (2nd overall), creating second-chance opportunities. Minnesota counters with a defensive approach anchored by Rudy Gobert and efficient three-point shooting (38.4%, 3rd).
Memphis has struggled defensively over the last 10 games (24th in defensive efficiency), allowing too many open looks. Minnesota, meanwhile, has also shown defensive regression (22nd in efficiency) but has maintained a solid rebounding presence and perimeter defense.
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies
Pick Against the Spread: Grizzlies -5.0 (-105)
Memphis’ elite scoring and rebounding should give them the edge against a Minnesota team that has been inconsistent offensively, particularly on the road. Expect Memphis to exploit their home-court advantage and cover the spread.Total Pick: Under 235.0 (-110)
Both teams have seen defensive struggles of late, but their overall defensive rankings and ability to limit possessions suggest a slower-paced game than the total implies.
Player Prop Bets
Desmond Bane Over 18.5 Points (-115)
Bane has exceeded this mark in 8 of his last 9 games, including strong recent shooting from beyond the arc. He’s a reliable scoring option for Memphis.Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-120)
Edwards has been the Timberwolves’ go-to scorer, averaging 30.6 PPG over his last 10 games. With Minnesota relying heavily on his offensive production, he’s a good bet to clear this line.Rudy Gobert Over 10.5 Rebounds (-125)
Gobert remains a rebounding machine, especially against teams like Memphis that dominate the boards. Expect him to battle hard in the paint and clear this number.
Final Score Prediction
Memphis Grizzlies 119, Minnesota Timberwolves 112
Memphis’ offense will prove too potent for Minnesota to contain, especially on the road. Expect a strong showing from Desmond Bane and Santi Aldama, while the Timberwolves lean on Anthony Edwards to keep the game competitive.
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks
Game Overview
The Atlanta Hawks (22-19) travel to Madison Square Garden to face the New York Knicks (27-16). Atlanta is riding a three-game winning streak and looks to extend it against a Knicks team struggling with injuries and inconsistent play. The Knicks are 6.5-point home favorites with the total set at 236.0 points.
Betting Lines
Spread: Knicks -6.5 (-105), Hawks +6.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Knicks -240, Hawks +200
Total: O236.0 (-110), U236.0 (-110)
Key Matchup Stats
Stat | Hawks | Knicks |
Points/Game | 117.2 (#6) | 117.0 (#7) |
Opponent Points/Game | 119.0 (#28) | 111.1 (#10) |
Avg Score Margin | -1.8 (#20) | +5.9 (#6) |
Effective FG % | 53.4% (#19) | 57.0% (#2) |
Opp Effective FG % | 55.7% (#26) | 54.9% (#20) |
Rebounds/Game | 54.2 (#5) | 51.0 (#22) |
Turnovers/Game | 15.7 (#22) | 13.2 (#5) |
Fastbreak Pts/Gm | 16.8 (#9) | 15.3 (#15) |
Points in Paint/Game | 53.4 (#4) | 52.2 (#5) |
Game Analysis
This matchup pits the Hawks' dynamic offense against a Knicks team known for solid all-around play. Atlanta thrives in transition and excels at creating second-chance opportunities, ranking 5th in total rebounds. However, their defense is among the league's worst (28th in points allowed), making it tough to sustain leads. The Knicks’ high-efficiency offense and strong defense in key areas (5th in opponent free throw attempts) provide them with a slight edge, especially at home.
Hawks vs. Knicks Prediction
Pick Against the Spread: Hawks +6.5 (-115)
Atlanta's ability to compete in close games and its strong recent form make the +6.5 spread appealing. The Hawks have covered the spread in four of their last five games and match up well against New York's weakened frontcourt.Total Pick: Under 236.0 (-110)
Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency over the past 10 games. However, the Hawks' slower pace on the road and the Knicks' offensive struggles without Karl-Anthony Towns suggest a lower-scoring game.
Player Prop Bets
Trae Young Over 23.5 Points (-115)
Young has performed well at Madison Square Garden historically and is averaging 24.4 PPG over his last 10 games. Expect him to continue his strong play in this marquee matchup.Jalen Brunson Over 25.5 Points (-110)
Brunson has been New York's most consistent offensive player, averaging 25.8 PPG in his last 10 games. With Towns questionable, Brunson will need to carry the scoring load.Clint Capela Over 9.5 Rebounds (-125)
Capela’s dominance on the glass will be critical against the Knicks’ weak rebounding effort, especially if Towns remains sidelined.
Final Score Prediction
Atlanta Hawks 116, New York Knicks 114
Expect a tightly contested game with Atlanta's depth and rebounding giving them the edge late. Trae Young’s scoring and Clint Capela’s inside presence will lead the Hawks to cover the spread and possibly secure an outright win.
Phoenix Suns vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Game Overview
The Phoenix Suns (21-20) head to Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse to face the Cleveland Cavaliers (35-6) in an afternoon matchup. Phoenix is coming off a win against Detroit, while Cleveland continued its home dominance with a win over Minnesota. The Cavaliers are 7.5-point favorites with a total set at 233.5 points.
Betting Lines
Spread: Cavaliers -7.5 (-110), Suns +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cavaliers -285, Suns +235
Total: O233.5 (-110), U233.5 (-110)
Key Matchup Stats
Stat | Suns | Cavaliers |
Points/Game | 113.2 (#14) | 122.1 (#2) |
Opponent Points/Game | 114.3 (#20) | 112.1 (#13) |
Avg Score Margin | -1.1 (#17) | +10.0 (#2) |
Effective FG % | 55.6% (#7) | 59.0% (#1) |
Opp Effective FG % | 54.0% (#15) | 53.3% (#11) |
Rebounds/Game | 50.5 (#26) | 50.8 (#24) |
Turnovers/Game | 13.9 (#10) | 13.1 (#3) |
Fastbreak Pts/Gm | 14.4 (#21) | 15.2 (#16) |
Points in Paint/Game | 42.4 (#28) | 50.8 (#8) |
Game Analysis
This game features two teams in vastly different situations. The Cavaliers boast one of the best records in the NBA, with an elite offense (1st in effective FG%) and a solid defense. Meanwhile, the Suns are hovering around .500, struggling on defense but relying on their star power to keep games competitive.
Phoenix’s recent performance has been bolstered by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, while Cleveland has leaned on Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. The Suns' 20th-ranked defense will be tested against the Cavaliers' 2nd-ranked scoring offense.
Suns vs. Cavaliers Prediction
Pick Against the Spread: Suns +7.5 (-110)
Phoenix has covered the spread in their last 6 games and is capable of keeping this game close with their offensive firepower. Cleveland has struggled to cover large spreads at home recently.Total Pick: Under 233.5 (-110)
Both teams have capable defenses, and the pace of play may slow in this matchup. Cleveland's home games often feature lower-scoring contests, making the under a viable play.
Player Prop Bets
Kevin Durant Over 27.5 Points (-115)
Durant has been on fire, averaging 33.4 points over his last 5 games. He’ll be the focal point for Phoenix against Cleveland’s tough defense.Darius Garland Over 6.5 Assists (-120)
Garland has been Cleveland’s primary playmaker and should easily exceed this mark against a Suns team that struggles to contain guards.Donovan Mitchell Under 24.5 Points - I like Mitchell to go under here and look to distribute more in this game.
Final Score Prediction
Cleveland Cavaliers 120, Phoenix Suns 115
Expect a competitive game with Phoenix keeping it close but falling short due to Cleveland’s offensive efficiency. The Suns' star power will help them stay within the spread.
Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors
Game Overview
The Boston Celtics (31-12) head to Chase Center to face the Golden State Warriors (24-20). The Celtics are slight road favorites and aim to bounce back after a tough loss to the Hawks. The Warriors, on the other hand, are looking for consistency after splitting their last ten games. Boston is favored by 9 points with the total set at 224.0 points.
Betting Lines
Spread: Celtics -9.0 (-115), Warriors +9.0 (-105)
Moneyline: Celtics -400, Warriors +300
Total: O224.0 (-110), U224.0 (-110)
Key Matchup Stats
Stat | Celtics | Warriors |
Points/Game | 117.5 (#4) | 111.4 (#17) |
Opponent Points/Game | 108.6 (#6) | 110.8 (#9) |
Avg Score Margin | +8.9 (#3) | +0.6 (#15) |
Effective FG % | 55.4% (#9) | 53.0% (#22) |
Opp Effective FG % | 52.4% (#5) | 53.3% (#9) |
Rebounds/Game | 53.6 (#7) | 55.7 (#3) |
Turnovers/Game | 11.9 (#2) | 14.3 (#17) |
Fastbreak Pts/Gm | 12.0 (#30) | 15.0 (#18) |
Points in Paint/Game | 42.0 (#30) | 46.0 (#18) |
Game Analysis
This game features two teams trending in different directions. The Celtics, despite their recent slump, remain one of the most efficient teams in the league, ranking 4th in defensive efficiency and averaging 117.5 points per game. Their three-point shooting (17.8 3PM per game, 1st in the league) and strong defensive rebounding make them tough to beat.
The Warriors rely heavily on Stephen Curry, who continues to perform at an elite level. However, Golden State's inconsistent bench production and poor interior scoring (28th in two-point shooting) have been weaknesses. Their defense has also slipped recently, ranking 17th in efficiency over the past 10 games.
Celtics vs. Warriors Prediction
Pick Against the Spread: Celtics -9.0 (-115)
Boston's superior three-point shooting and rebounding edge make them strong candidates to cover the spread. They’ve also fared well on the road against Western Conference opponents.Total Pick: Under 224.0 (-110)
With two top-10 defenses squaring off, expect a lower-scoring game. Both teams have been inconsistent offensively, and the Celtics’ ability to control pace further supports the under.
Player Prop Bets
Jayson Tatum Over 25.5 Points (-110)
Tatum has been Boston's most reliable scorer and averages 25.3 PPG. With Golden State struggling to defend wings, he’s in a favorable spot.Stephen Curry Over 25.5 Points (-125)
Curry has carried the Warriors’ offense all season, averaging 27.8 PPG. Expect him to rise to the occasion in a big game.Kristaps Porzingis Over 2.5 Threes (-118)
Porzingis has hit this mark in four of his last five games. Against a defense allowing 36.0% from deep, he should find open looks.
Final Score Prediction
Boston Celtics 116, Golden State Warriors 104
The Celtics’ efficiency on both ends of the court, combined with their strong three-point shooting, should give them the edge. Golden State’s reliance on Curry will keep them competitive early, but Boston's depth will secure the win and cover.
Utah Jazz vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Game Overview
The Utah Jazz (10-30) visit the Smoothie King Center to face the New Orleans Pelicans (11-32) in a Western Conference matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, but the Pelicans have shown signs of life, winning three of their last four games. The Jazz are significant underdogs, with New Orleans favored by 11 points. The total for the game is set at 232.0.
Betting Lines
Spread: Pelicans -11.0 (-115), Jazz +11.0 (-105)
Moneyline: Pelicans -625, Jazz +430
Total: O232.0 (-110), U232.0 (-110)
Key Matchup Stats
Stat | Pelicans | Jazz |
Points/Game | 108.9 (#24) | 111.3 (#18) |
Opponent Points/Game | 117.2 (#25) | 118.1 (#26) |
Avg Score Margin | -8.3 (#28) | -6.8 (#25) |
Effective FG % | 51.0% (#28) | 53.9% (#18) |
Opp Effective FG % | 56.0% (#28) | 55.5% (#24) |
Rebounds/Game | 51.3 (#19) | 53.2 (#9) |
Turnovers/Game | 14.2 (#16) | 16.4 (#28) |
Fastbreak Pts/Game | 15.8 (#12) | 12.4 (#29) |
Points in Paint/Game | 45.3 (#21) | 43.9 (#23) |
Game Analysis
The Pelicans are finding momentum with three wins in their last four games, including a recent 136-123 victory over the Jazz. Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum are leading the charge, and the team's offensive efficiency has improved dramatically with Zion back in the lineup. However, New Orleans still struggles defensively, ranking near the bottom of the league in opponent field goal percentage and points allowed per game.
The Jazz, meanwhile, are in freefall. They’ve lost five of their last six games and are riddled with injuries, with key players like Lauri Markkanen and John Collins questionable for tonight’s contest. Utah’s offense has been inconsistent, and their defense is among the worst in the league, particularly in protecting the paint and defending the three-point line.
Jazz vs. Pelicans Prediction
Pick Against the Spread: Jazz +11.0 (-105)
The Pelicans are improving, but covering an 11-point spread is challenging for a team that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency. The Jazz have managed to cover in 8 of their last 10 games as underdogs, and their rebounding advantage could help them stay competitive.Total Pick: Over 232.0 (-110)
Both teams struggle defensively, ranking in the bottom five in opponent points per game. The last meeting saw a combined total of 259 points, and another high-scoring affair is likely given the pace and defensive inefficiencies.
Player Prop Bets
Zion Williamson Over 23.5 Points (-115)
Williamson has averaged 20.3 points since returning and faces a Jazz defense that struggles against big men in the paint.CJ McCollum Over 3.5 Threes (-120)
McCollum has been lights out from beyond the arc, hitting 6 triples in the last matchup against Utah.Keyonte George Over 3.5 Rebounds (-108)
George has been consistent on the boards, covering this line in three straight games.
Final Score Prediction
New Orleans Pelicans 124, Utah Jazz 116
While the Pelicans are likely to secure the win, the Jazz’s rebounding edge and ability to cover as underdogs make them a value pick to stay within the spread. Expect Zion and McCollum to shine offensively in a high-scoring contest.
Chicago Bulls vs. L.A. Clippers
Game Overview
The Chicago Bulls (17-30) visit the L.A. Clippers (29-18) at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles. The Clippers are coming off a strong stretch of form with four consecutive wins, while the Bulls have lost five straight games. L.A. is a 6-point home favorite, and the total is set at 227.0.
Betting Lines
Spread: Clippers -6.0 (-110), Bulls +6.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Clippers -225, Bulls +185
Total: O227.0 (-110), U227.0 (-110)
Key Matchup Stats
Stat | Clippers | Bulls |
Points/Game | 109.7 (#23) | 117.2 (#5) |
Opponent Points/Game | 106.5 (#3) | 120.5 (#29) |
Avg Score Margin | +3.2 (#10) | -3.2 (#22) |
Effective FG % | 54.2% (#16) | 55.6% (#8) |
Opp Effective FG % | 52.8% (#8) | 54.3% (#16) |
Rebounds/Game | 52.0 (#17) | 52.7 (#13) |
Turnovers/Game | 16.3 (#27) | 15.1 (#19) |
Fastbreak Pts/Game | 17.0 (#7) | 17.5 (#5) |
Points in Paint/Game | 49.7 (#9) | 49.1 (#11) |
Game Analysis
The Clippers' success has been built on their elite defense, ranking third in opponent points per game (106.5) and eighth in opponent effective field goal percentage (52.8%). On the offensive side, Norman Powell and James Harden have carried the scoring load, with Powell averaging 23.7 PPG in his last 10 games. The Clippers have also excelled in fastbreak points, an area where the Bulls are equally strong.
The Bulls, on the other hand, are in freefall. Despite ranking fifth in scoring (117.2 PPG), their defense has been disastrous, allowing 120.5 PPG (29th). Zach LaVine has been the lone bright spot, averaging 28.6 points in the past 10 games, but their lack of defensive consistency has made it impossible to close out games. Chicago is also one of the worst teams in opponent points in the paint (56.3), which could be exploited by the Clippers’ interior play.
Bulls vs. Clippers Prediction
Pick Against the Spread: Clippers -6.0 (-110)
L.A. has covered the spread in eight straight home games as favorites, and their defense should suffocate a struggling Bulls team. The Clippers have also covered three consecutive spreads against Chicago.Total Pick: Under 227.0 (-110)
The Clippers' defensive strength and slower pace, combined with the Bulls' recent scoring struggles, point toward a lower-scoring game. L.A.’s defense should limit Chicago's high-scoring potential.
Player Prop Bets
Norman Powell Over 22.5 Points (-110)
Powell has been red-hot, averaging 23.7 points over the last 10 games, and faces a Bulls defense that ranks near the bottom in opponent scoring.Zach LaVine Over 4.5 Assists (+109)
LaVine has hit this mark in four straight games and will be a focal point of the Bulls' offense, especially with their backcourt injuries.Josh Giddey Under 11.5 Points (-125)
Giddey has averaged just 6.4 points in his last five games and faces a Clippers defense that excels at limiting guard production.
Final Score Prediction
L.A. Clippers 114, Chicago Bulls 104
The Clippers’ stifling defense and balanced scoring attack should lead them to a comfortable win. Expect the Bulls to struggle against a Clippers team that thrives at home and is trending upward.