College Basketball Best Picks Today - Saturday 3/29
Texas Tech vs. Florida
I have been riding Florida for most of this tournament, but I can’t help but be disappointed in their style of play. While Clayton is an amazing offensive player, he’s extremely lazy on defense and does not set the tone for his team. I really like how Richards plays and Condon clearly is important to Florida since they struggled big time with him off the floor. I think Texas Tech has a chance to hang in this one and will fight to stay in it, especially in the first half. Florida has been really weak in the first half the past two games with poor performances on the defensive side and taking care of the ball. Maybe I am getting on them too hard at the wrong time, but it takes a very solid team at this stage to beat a legit Texas Tech team by 7+ points and Florida has shown too many lapses up to this point for me.
Over 157.5 Total Points
Both teams have demonstrated strong offensive capabilities throughout the season. Florida averages 85.5 points per game (3rd nationally), while Texas Tech averages 80.9 points per game (23rd). Additionally, Florida’s games have consistently gone over in their last ten outings, and Texas Tech has seen the over hit in their last five games. These trends suggest a high-scoring affair.
Texas Tech +4 1st Half
Texas Tech has shown resilience, notably overcoming a significant deficit against Arkansas in the Sweet 16. With key players like JT Toppin, the Big 12 Player of the Year, the Red Raiders have the potential to keep the game competitive. Florida’s recent turnover issues and the injury concern of Alex Condon further support the possibility of Texas Tech covering at least in the first half. Underdogs have been hanging first half anyway, and Florida could get hot second half and run away so I like this bet more than the full game.
Additional Considerations:
Player Props:
JT Toppin (Texas Tech): Toppin has been great, averaging 18.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Considering his recent performances, betting on him to exceed his points or rebounds average could be a solid move, especially if Condon is out.
Walter Clayton Jr. (Florida): Leading the Gators with 17.7 points per game, Clayton Jr. is a consistent scorer. He had 13 against Maryland so I assume he will bounce back.
Final Thoughts:
The offensive firepower of both teams indicates a high-scoring matchup, and I don’t anticipate Florida pulling away until the end. This Texas Tech team has some fight.
Alabama vs. Duke
Alabama was lights out against BYU. I don’t think Sears is going to shoot like that again, but I’ve come away very impressed with Alabama this tournament. They’ve stepped up on defense. However, they’re going against what appears to be the most solid team in the tournament. I don’t think many teams left would’ve been able to hold off Arizona — a vet team that just did not go away and hit big shots. Duke is solid all around with no weaknesses and I think they’re still hitting the upside potential of the team now getting fully healthy as well. Alabama is going to have to go lights out shooting to win this one (or keep it close). We know Bama is going to get out and run, but if they can’t stop Duke from scoring, they won’t be able to get out and go.
PREMIUM PICKS & ANALYSIS
Duke -7.0
Duke has been dominant on both ends of the floor, with an average score margin of +21.1, the highest in the country. Their defense is elite, holding opponents to just 62.5 points per game (5th nationally). Alabama thrives on high-scoring shootouts, but against Duke’s top-tier defensive efficiency, they will likely struggle to replicate their previous offensive explosions. Duke’s balanced attack and ability to limit high-percentage shots make them a strong pick to cover the spread. I also think Duke’s efficiency on offense will limit Alabama’s ability to get out and run.
Under 175.0 Total Points
While Alabama leads the country in scoring at 91.4 points per game, they are running into an elite Duke defense that holds opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4% (best in the nation). Alabama also plays at a high tempo, but Duke has the ability to slow the game down and force difficult shots. Expect a more controlled pace, making the under a solid bet. This should only be a smaller bet and it is more speculative than anything.
Additional Considerations:
Player Props:
Cooper Flagg (Duke): He should step up and exceed his points and rebounds projections, although his points are set all the way up to 25.5, which is pretty high so maybe focus more on rebounding.
Mark Sears (Alabama): Sears is coming off a massive 34-point performance with 10 three-pointers. However, against Duke’s perimeter defense, he is unlikely to have the same success. Betting on the under for his three-point makes or total points could be a sharp play.
Mark Sears - Under 20.5 Points
Final Thoughts:
Duke’s defense and rebounding advantage give them a clear edge in this matchup. Alabama will struggle to generate their usual offensive production against an elite defensive unit and a more methodical offense that converts. Duke is the best pick to cover.
Sacramento Kings vs. Orlando Magic
Spread: Kings +1.0 (-115) | Magic -1.0 (-105)
Total: 215.5 (O -115, U -105)
Moneyline: Kings -110 | Magic -110
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Analysis: The Kings have been inconsistent on the road, while the Magic, with Paolo Banchero, have shown resilience at home. Paolo has been impossible to stop lately. Orlando's defense has been alright, and their ability to control the tempo with their defense has really been the key lately. Check out Anthony Black who is starting to come on lately.
Premium Picks:
Spread Bet: Magic -1.0 (-105)
Over/Under Bet: Under 215.5 (-105)
Player Props: Anthony Black - Over 11.5 Points
Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards
Spread: Nets +1.0 (-110) | Wizards -1.0 (-110)
Total: 218.0 (O -110, U -110)
Moneyline: Nets -105 | Wizards -115
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Analysis: Both teams are struggling this season and probably want a good lottery spot. I’d say the Nets are playing harder overall, but coming off a B2B, this is a toss up. I really have no idea how to bet this game.
Premium Picks:
No Bets
Player Prop for upside: Ziaire Williams 15+ points (+200)
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Spread: Heat -7.0 (-115) | 76ers +7.0 (-105)
Total: 216.5 (O -110, U -110)
Moneyline: Heat -285 | 76ers +235
Time: 4:30 PM ET
Analysis: The Heat probably want to win and the 76ers probably want to lose. That’s the high level here. But the 76ers have been playing hard with their younger guys. I think the Heat probably take this one fairly easy.
Premium Picks:
Spread Bet: Heat 1st Quarter -2 / Heat ML
Over/Under Bet: Under 216.5 (-110)
Player Props: Justin Edwards - Over 15.5 Points
Boston Celtics vs. San Antonio Spurs
Spread: Celtics -12.5 (-110) | Spurs +12.5 (-110)
Total: 228.5 (O -110, U -110)
Moneyline: Celtics -750 | Spurs +500
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Analysis: Boston's defense should dominate, and their offense will likely exploit San Antonio's weaknesses. The Spurs young core has been playing alright, but it seems like the youth is leading to inconsistency — getting blown out one night and then playing close to the NBA elite teams the next night. I think Boston wins easy here but too many points to be taking that on the road.
Premium Picks:
Spread Bet: Celtics ML
Player Prop: Jaylen Brown - Over 19.5 Points
Dallas Mavericks vs. Chicago Bulls
Spread: Mavericks +3.0 (-115) | Bulls -3.0 (-105)
Total: 237.5 (O -110, U -110)
Moneyline: Mavericks +120 | Bulls -140
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Analysis: The Mavericks have AD coming back but he’s looked a bit rusty. The Bulls are super hot and have been strong at home. Josh Giddey and Coby White are looking like the best tandem in the league the last 10 games. Their lines are super jacked up now but they keep hitting!
Premium Picks:
Spread Bet: Bulls -3.0 (-105)
Over/Under Bet: Over 237.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Coby White - Over 25.5 Points
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Spread: Pacers +10.0 (-115) | Thunder -10.0 (-105)
Total: 238.0 (O -105, U -115)
Moneyline: Pacers +350 | Thunder -480
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Analysis: I feel like the Thunder will step up on defense here and slow down the Pacers who just dropped over 160 points on the Wizards the other night. The Thunder are great at shutting down guards and I expect them to do that against Haliburton.
Premium Picks:
Spread Bet: Thunder -10.0 (-105)
Player Prop: Tyrese Haliburton - Under 30.5 PRA
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Spread: Lakers +2.5 (-115) | Grizzlies -2.5 (-105)
Total: 237.5 (O -110, U -110)
Moneyline: Lakers +115 | Grizzlies -135
Time: 5:00 PM ET
Analysis: The Lakers have been up and down since Lebron has come back. They’re not as good on the road as they are at home. The Grizzlies just fired their coach 10 days before the playoffs start! That’s crazy. But, this team is not reaching its potential and they are playing zero defense. We’ll see how this impacts them moving forward. Ja Morant appears to be coming back for this game as well.
Premium Picks:
Spread Bet: Keep an eye on the live bet - take either team if you get +8 or more.
Grizzlies 1st Quarter -0.5
Staying away from player props in this game — too many variables, but consider Luka to go over 30.5 Points.