College Football Best Picks Today - Saturday, 9/27

Already bet under 57.5 early in the week.

Louisville clearly has a lot of edges on paper here in the important positions. They have a very good defense and they have great QB play.

Pitt also has a great defense but they struggle on offense. 

The clear and obvious bet here is the under, with defense potentially taking control of this game. Neither of these teams has had to face any sort of good defense yet this year, so I believe the total is inflated, which is why i grabbed it at 57.5 early in the week (now 56).

The most eye-opening detail is how good Louisville defensive line is graded so far this year. Will Pitt be able to block these guys?

On the other side, Pitt’s entire defensive front and LBs are very legit. The difference maker in this game will be Miller Moss. If he can throw and not make mistakes, they’ll win this game.

I was leaning to Louisville early in the week but it seems like sharp money has brought this down from -4.5 to -3.5. It’s a no bet for me now, but I do favor the Louisville side based on the matchups. I have not seen Pitt play much but they appear to be a feisty team and one that can generate mistakes – Louisville will have to play some clean football to win.

I’m on the under just because of how strong these defenses are, specifically the fronts. I’m not ignore the fact that the over is in play given both teams will likely need to pass vs. run the ball in this game, but I still like going against that higher total because of Pitt’s weak QB play.

USC -6.5 & USC ML

IL got absolutely wiped by a much better Indiana team last week – they were way overrated and Indiana was underrated. The question coming into this game is how poor is IL and how good is USC (similar question to IL vs. IN last week). My best guess is USC is legit and IL is just decent – so I think USC should win by 14 points here.

The big thing with USC this season is a much improved defense. It feels like they’re catching disrespect from the last few years of having consistently bad D. Oh, and by the way, their offense appears to be elite so far this season.

The one thing that is worrisome as a USC bettor is traveling to a different time zone and playing early in the morning, plus IL coming off a big loss. However, I think IL is just overrated still at this point.

The USC defense does not show any major weaknesses so far and they could potentially take advantage of a poor IL right side of their offensive line.

The matchup with USC on offense up front appears to be fairly even. The advantages for USC will be in their passing game, if they’re able to turn it loose and hit big plays, it will be a long day for IL.

I’m fine to be on USC for the pick at -6.5, mostly because I don’t think Illinois is that great. It’s not a big bet because there are a few factors going against USC → travel and game time / time change, IL coming off bad loss, and USC has not played any top tier competition yet so are not quite sure how good they are.

Already bet big on Indiana -7

Over 47.5

Isn’t this exactly what happened with Indiana last year? They were underrated and beating the shit out of bad teams and then beating the shit even more out of conference teams and still not getting respect. I know this is a very tough game going to Iowa on the road, but I think Indiana has potential to win by 3 scores here just like last week.

Iowa defense is not as good as it has been in years past, but the offense is better. They should’ve probably lost last week to Rutgers and could not stop that offense. How will they stop Indiana this week?

Indiana is the #1 rated PFF team in the country, meaning they execute better than any other team so far, regardless of competition. It was the exact same as last year. We ride Indiana until they play a talent-superior team and then bet against them big (remember ohio state last year vs. indiana?).

Iowa does have a great coach and a solid record in this position but the eye test wins here.

Iowa has a great offensive line and Indiana has a great defensive line (and overall defense). This is a key battle to watch!

Indiana will have some advantages attacking the secondary of Iowa but Iowa appears to be pretty stout up front also.

I love the bet at -7 but you had to grab that early in the week. At -8.5 or -9 now, it’s tough to bet but I do feel like Indiana will run away with this one. If it’s a super tight game, that plays into Iowa’s favor.

Keep an eye out early – if indiana gets going quickly, they’ll step on the gas. 

The over might also be a good bet in this one.

Already bet on Washington +9.5

It appears that Washington is pretty underrated so far this season, although their defense does not look great, but they’re one of the best teams so far on offense.

This is a tough travel test for OSU going across the country as a decent-sized favorite. I’m ok taking the points with Washington at 8.5 – I’m on 9.5 but either they keep this close and cover or get blown out. I don’t see OSU barely covering this one and there’s a chance Washington could pull an upset here, just given that OSU has a young QB.

One big issue is the Huskies best CB is now doubtful and that could hurt them on defense even more.

This OSU defense is absolutely loaded (as usual), but the Huskies do have a great OL and this will be the most key battle of the game

The OSU OL is not great this year but they also are not facing a tough challenge against Washington

This is more of a feel bet and situational bet that OSU could have a let down game.

On paper, the Washington defense is worrisome, but if they can get into a shootout, it might be to their advantage given OSU has a young QB.

Arizona +5.5 vs. Iowa State – AZ is underrated on defense and has the run game to attack Iowa State

Penn State ML – hard to see Oregon coming in and taking them down in the white out at night.

South Carolina – Are they going to lose to Kentucky at home with Sellers? I don’t see it. I think they win by 7 or more.

During my research it felt like the better picks in these games were Arkansas and Cincinnati. 

However, I have a lot of respect for ND and Kansas so I could not make these picks.

I would say that if you’re on ND or Kansas big to be very careful because there are some significant advantages on the side of Arkansas (especially being at home) and Cincinnati being very underrated. Both could be good legs in teasers as I expect these games to be tight and you could get those lines up to +11.