1) Houston -4 vs Colorado (8.5/10)
Houston’s defense grades far better than Colorado’s across the board. At home with a conservative run-lean offense, the Cougars are set up to protect a lead and cover.
Play: Houston -4
2) New Mexico +15.5 at UCLA (8/10)
UCLA is 0–2 and hasn’t shown the gear this spread assumes. Turnovers and inconsistency have plagued them, while New Mexico has been competitive. Getting over two TDs is valuable.
Play: New Mexico +15.5
(Optional sprinkle: small ML play, but spread is the real edge.)
3) Arizona +1.5 vs Kansas State (6.5/10)
Arizona grades better across the board early and gets this game at home. Kansas State has red-zone and offensive rhythm issues that make them tough to back as a road favorite.
Play: Arizona +1.5 (ML is fine too)
4) Indiana St at Indiana — UNDER 60.0 (6/10)
This is a huge FBS vs FCS mismatch. Indiana should cruise, then empty the bench. Expect a running clock and fewer possessions after halftime.
Play: Under 60.0
5) Colgate at Syracuse — UNDER 64.0 (5.5/10)
Syracuse should dominate, but blowout scripts often stall in the second half. Even in a dome, most realistic score projections stay under this big number.
Play: Under 64.0