New Mexico State @ Liberty
Kick: 6:00 PM CT
Line: NMSU +10.5 | LIB -10.5
ML: NMSU +320 | LIB -430
Total: 47.0
Quick Read
Liberty’s defense has been the steadier unit this season, while the offense has struggled to generate big separation. New Mexico State has been scrappy, running a balanced attack that can shorten the game and limit possessions. The line suggests a slower-paced battle where Liberty’s defense, not its offense, must carry the cover.
Matchup Edges (strength vs. weakness)
Liberty pass defense vs. Aggie passing game: Flames have held opposing QBs below efficiency averages; if NMSU can’t create explosives, they’ll struggle to score quickly.
Tempo and style: Both teams favor longer drives and modest tempo, keeping total plays low.
Cover angle: Liberty hasn’t consistently pulled away — they rely on defensive turnovers rather than offensive firepower.
Arkansas State @ South Alabama
Kick: 6:30 PM CT
Line: ARST +7.0 | USA -7.0
ML: ARST +220 | USA -270
Total: 58.0
Quick Read
South Alabama’s offense thrives when they can stay on schedule with QB Bishop Davenport’s zone-read game, while Arkansas State depends on explosive moments from QB Jaylen Raynor. If South Alabama’s ground game controls the clock, this may not turn into the shootout the total implies.
Matchup Edges (strength vs. weakness)
USA rushing attack vs. ARST front seven: Jaguars have a major efficiency edge and can chew clock while sustaining drives.
Explosives control: Arkansas State’s passing game can strike quickly, but South Alabama’s tempo and possession style naturally reduce those opportunities.
Situational: When Arkansas State is forced into 3rd-and-long, their offensive efficiency drops sharply.
Florida International @ Western Kentucky
Kick: 7:00 PM CT
Line: FIU +10.0 | WKU -10.0
ML: FIU +300 | WKU -400
Total: 56.0
Quick Read
Western Kentucky’s offense remains explosive, driven by its vertical passing game, but their defense has shown leaks. FIU has been inconsistent yet capable of producing points when game flow cooperates. The market expects another wide-open CUSA-style affair.
Matchup Edges (strength vs. weakness)
WKU passing game vs. FIU secondary: Hilltoppers have a clear advantage in both talent and scheme; FIU has given up chunk plays all year.
FIU offensive rhythm: Panthers can sustain scoring if they avoid early 3-and-outs; QB mobility helps them stay balanced.
Total profile: Both teams operate with pace, and WKU’s defense doesn’t slow anyone down.