🕒 8:00 PM ET @ Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA
💰 Moneyline: Iowa State -4000 / Colorado +1300 | Total: 141.5 (-105 over / -115 under)
Colorado’s turnover issues are a major red flag against Iowa State’s aggressive defense, which ranks among the nation’s best at forcing mistakes. The Cyclones have already beaten the Buffaloes twice this season, covering both times, and their strong rebounding should limit second-chance opportunities for Colorado. Given the matchup, we’re riding with Iowa State to dominate once again.
Key betting trends:
Colorado: 10-15 ATS, 4-11 ATS in conference play.
Iowa State: 15-10 ATS, 10-5 ATS in conference games.
Head-to-Head: Iowa State has won both matchups this season, covering both times.
Matchup analysis
Colorado Buffaloes
Record: 10-15, 10-15 ATS
✅ Solid free-throw shooting (75.9%, 54th nationally)
✅ Decent defensive rebounding (23.9 per game, 90th nationally)
✅ Capable of drawing fouls (18.5 opponent fouls per game, 62nd nationally)
✅ Strong assist rate (30th in assists per made FG)
✅ Forces turnovers (9.3% steal rate, 103rd nationally)
❌ Struggles with turnovers (14.9 per game, 352nd nationally)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (33.1%, 203rd nationally)
❌ Inconsistent offense (70.4 PPG, 240th nationally)
Key injuries: A. Crawford (out - redshirt).
Iowa State Cyclones
Record: 20-5, 15-10 ATS
✅ Strong scoring offense (81.4 PPG, 22nd nationally)
✅ Elite turnover creation (15.4 opponent turnovers per game, 12th nationally)
✅ Excellent inside scoring (55.7% two-point FG, 43rd nationally)
✅ High free-throw rate (FTA/FGA ratio of 0.390, 38th nationally)
✅ Strong rebounding margin (+6.3 per game)
❌ Streaky three-point shooting (34.3%, 145th nationally)
❌ Occasional ball-handling issues (11.4 turnovers per game, 133rd nationally)
❌ Foul trouble concerns (15.1 fouls per game)
Key injuries: C. Hawley (out - shoulder).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Iowa State 79 - Colorado 60
Outcome: Iowa State covers the spread | Key factors: Iowa State’s defensive intensity, Colorado’s turnover issues, and the Cyclones' dominance on the glass.
Spread pick | Iowa State -17.5 (-115) - Reasoning: Iowa State has covered in 66.7% of conference games. Their ability to force turnovers and control the tempo should lead to a comfortable win. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (8/10) |
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