🕒 3:00 PM ET @ Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
💰 Moneyline: St. John’s -290 / Creighton +240 | Total: 141.5 (-115 over / -105 under)
Creighton has been an underdog bettor’s dream, covering in ten straight games when getting points. St. John’s might have the defensive edge, but their three-point shooting is atrocious, which could keep things closer than the line suggests. We’re rolling with the Bluejays to cover.
Key betting trends:
Creighton: 15-8-2 ATS overall, 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog.
St. John’s: 15-9-1 ATS, 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Head-to-Head: Creighton has won 8 of the last 10 matchups, including a 57-56 victory earlier this season.
Matchup analysis
Creighton Bluejays
Record: 18-7, 15-8-2 ATS
✅ Efficient shooting (47.5% FG, 34.4% 3PT)
✅ Strong rebounding (37.3 RPG)
✅ Solid defense (40.2% opponent FG%)
✅ Disciplined team (fewest fouls in Big East at 10.5 per game)
✅ Clutch in close games (5-0-1 ATS as an underdog)
❌ Struggles against pressure (8.4 turnovers per game, lowest in conference)
❌ Inconsistent bench production
❌ Free throw issues in crunch time (70.0% FT)
Key injuries: P. Isaacs (out - hip)
St. John’s Red Storm
Record: 21-4, 15-9-1 ATS
✅ Elite defense (65.3 PPG allowed, 39.9% opponent FG%)
✅ Dominant rebounding (40.8 RPG, 6th in NCAA)
✅ Forces turnovers (15.8 opponent turnovers per game)
✅ Strong second-half team (+7.7 margin after halftime)
✅ Top shot-blocking unit (5.5 blocks per game)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (29.2% 3PT, 349th in NCAA)
❌ Below-average free throw shooting (68.7%)
❌ Turnover-prone (11.4 TOs per game)
Key injuries: D. Smith (doubtful - neck), B. Dunlap (out - hand)
Picks & predictions
Final score: St. John’s 70 - Creighton 66
Outcome: Creighton covers the spread | Key factors: Creighton’s ability to keep games close, St. John’s struggles from three, and rebounding battle.
Spread pick | Creighton +7.5 (-115) - Reasoning: The Bluejays have covered in 10 straight games as an underdog, including a head-to-head win earlier this season. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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