🕒 8:00 PM ET @ John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
💰 Moneyline: Duke -1500 / Virginia +775 | Total: 132 (-110 over / -110 under)
Virginia’s defense is solid, but their scoring? Not so much. Duke’s shooting efficiency and rebounding edge should be too much for a Cavaliers squad that struggles to put up points. Even in a slow-paced game, Duke should have no problem covering.
Key betting trends:
Duke: 15-10 ATS overall, dominant on the road (7-1 SU).
Virginia: 12-13 ATS, 50% cover rate as a home team (7-7 ATS).
Head-to-Head: Duke has won the last two meetings, but Virginia won the last matchup in Charlottesville 69-62 in 2023.
Matchup analysis
Duke Blue Devils
Record: 22-3, 15-10 ATS
✅ Elite scoring margin (+20.2, #1 in NCAA)
✅ Strong three-point shooting (37.8%, #24)
✅ Lockdown defense (60.8 PPG allowed, #4)
✅ Efficient ball movement (1.71 assist-to-turnover ratio, #5)
✅ High shooting efficiency (57.2% eFG, #6)
❌ Below-average free throw rate (FTA/FGA 0.320, #211)
❌ Struggles forcing turnovers (11.9 opponent TO per game, #180)
Virginia Cavaliers
Record: 13-12, 12-13 ATS
✅ Solid defensive team (64.9 PPG allowed, #22)
✅ Strong assist-to-FG ratio (67%, #2 in NCAA)
✅ Effective three-point shooting (37.7%, #27)
✅ Low foul rate (15.0 per game, #33)
✅ Good half-court execution (slowest tempo in NCAA, limiting possessions)
❌ Poor scoring output (64.6 PPG, #343)
❌ Weak rebounding (30.7 RPG, #336)
❌ Low free throw attempts (13.6 per game, #357)
Key injuries: Caleb Bliss (questionable – foot), Elijah Gertrude (out – knee), Chase Lang (out – redshirt).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Duke 72 - Virginia 57
Outcome: Duke covers the spread | Key factors: Duke’s offensive efficiency, Virginia’s scoring struggles, and Duke’s rebounding edge.
Spread pick | Duke -14 (-115) - Reasoning: Duke’s size and shooting efficiency should overpower Virginia’s limited offense, especially with the Cavaliers' rebounding struggles. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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