Everything You Need To Know For NFL Week 18

I broke it down in some videos but I’ll drop all the games that matter and don’t matter here, along with important player incentive props to be aware of.

But am I the only one looking to fade these juiced player incentive prop bets? Mike Evans over/under at 100.5 receiving yards? Wow, sure, they want to get him the ball, but they still need to win the game… he’s only gone over 100 yards twice this year. Vegas is obviously aware of this stuff. I’ve heard from 10 different people who want to bet on Mike Evans this week. I’ll take the under 100 yards.

Caleb Williams was very bad this year. You can see on the bottom left corner where he sits compared to all other QBs and years in terms of avoiding sacks and throwing catchable balls. It essentially says that he doesn’t throw catchable balls and he takes a ton of unnecessary sacks — both at a historically bad (worst ever?) rate.

Really starting to like this guy below… and the balls on that 4th down call!

PJ Fleck looking like he’s done something like this before… 🤮

First, here’s the lowdown on games with no playoff motivation or seeding at stake.

These are essentially meaningless in terms of postseason impact:

Now, let’s get to the matchups that matter:

Browns vs. Ravens
The Ravens can clinch the AFC North and the #3 seed with a win. They’re massive favorites, but if they pull ahead big, expect key players to rest. A loss, combined with a Steelers win, would drop them to the #5 or #6 seed.

Bengals vs. Steelers
The Steelers need a win and a Ravens loss to take the AFC North and secure the #3 seed. Meanwhile, the Bengals need a win plus losses by the Broncos and Dolphins to sneak into the playoffs. Both teams will be fighting hard.

Chargers vs. Raiders
The Chargers can move up to the #5 seed with a win—but only if the Steelers lose to the Bengals. If the Steelers win, this game becomes meaningless for the Chargers, so keep an eye on Saturday’s results.

Chiefs vs. Broncos
This is huge for Denver. Beat the Chiefs, and they’re in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Kansas City is resting key players, including Patrick Mahomes, making this a golden opportunity for the Broncos.

Dolphins vs. Jets
Miami needs a win over the Jets and a Broncos loss to clinch a playoff spot. Expect the Dolphins to go all out.

Saints vs. Buccaneers
The Bucs clinch the NFC South and the #4 seed with a win. But if they lose, they risk missing the playoffs entirely if the Falcons beat the Panthers.

Panthers vs. Falcons
Atlanta can take the NFC South and the #4 seed with a win and a Tampa Bay loss. These games kick off at the same time, so expect drama.

Commanders vs. Cowboys
Washington has already made the playoffs but can secure the #6 seed with a win. They’ve made it clear they’re playing to win.

Bears vs. Packers
The Packers are locked into the postseason but can move up to the #6 seed if they win and the Commanders lose.

Finally, the biggest game of the week:

Vikings vs. Lions
This one’s for all the marbles in the NFC North. The winner takes the division crown, the #1 seed, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage. The loser? They drop to the #5 seed. Both teams will leave it all on the field.

There are probably plenty more of these to keep an eye on, but these are the big boys that stood out to me…

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers QB):
Mayfield can earn $500,000 if Tampa Bay makes the playoffs and another $500,000 for each postseason round they advance. Plus, if he finishes in the top 10 among QBs in stats like passer rating or passing yards, he could add up to $2.5 million, bringing his total potential earnings to $5 million with a Super Bowl win.

Mike Evans (Buccaneers WR):
Evans is just five catches and 85 yards away from a $3 million bonus. Those yards would also extend his streak of 1,000-yard seasons to 11, tying Jerry Rice’s record.

Geno Smith (Seahawks QB):
Smith can earn $2 million for setting new career highs in categories like passing yards and completion percentage. A Week 18 win could net him another $2 million, totaling $6 million if he hits his marks.

Kyler Murray (Cardinals QB):
Murray is 50 rushing yards and one touchdown away from a $750,000 bonus. His best running game this season was against his Week 18 opponent, the 49ers, so this one’s within reach.

DeAndre Hopkins (Chiefs WR):
Hopkins needs nine catches and 140 yards for two $250,000 bonuses. While those are tough to achieve, just one touchdown would earn him $500,000.

Courtland Sutton (Broncos WR):
Sutton is 82 receiving yards away from hitting 1,065 on the season, which would trigger a $500,000 bonus. He’s already earned $1 million this season from earlier milestones.

J.K. Dobbins (Chargers RB):
Dobbins is 58 rushing yards shy of earning a $150,000 bonus. He’s already collected $300,000 this season for hitting lower yardage thresholds.

Tony Pollard (Titans RB):
Pollard can earn $250,000 with 83 more rushing yards and another $200,000 if he scores two touchdowns. However, injuries may limit his Week 18 performance.

Zach Ertz (Commanders TE):
Ertz is nine catches, 90 yards, and two touchdowns away from three separate $250,000 bonuses. He’s already cashed in $750,000 this season and isn’t done yet.

Not a ton of NFL games I love this week. I’ll probably do a few deep dive videos on Tik Tok today and tomorrow. I’m pretty excited for the playoffs.

In the College Football Playoffs, I really like Penn State to beat Notre Dame at a first glance. I’m pretty surprised they’re not favored. Vertical passing teams can do well against Penn State, but I don’t feel like Notre Dame can take advantage.

I also like Ohio State to beat Texas, which would give us a rematch and Ohio State is just feeling like the clear best team right now for me. We’ll see what happens though.

Good luck out there!

-Mike