Today, I’m covering 9 NBA games, 2 college basketball Top 25 games, and 1 Premier League Soccer match. The NBA picks are on a separate page with every game so don’t miss that. The other sports are right here in the body of the email.
I’ll send out all the best picks today in a separate email.
PREMIUM will get all the picks across 3 sports. We’re still dialing in NCAAB slowly and I’m feeling great about where we are with NBA down the home stretch. Let’s get some money!
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NBA Picks Today
We got 9 NBA matchups to dive into so click the button below to go to the full NBA analysis page and read about every game. If I drop them all here, your email will short-circuit on us.
College Basketball Picks Today - Top 25 Action
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Villanova Wildcats (-2)
🕒 4:00 PM ET @ Finneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA
💰 Moneyline: Marquette +110 / Villanova -130 | Total: 142.5 (-110 over / -110 under)
Key betting trends:
Marquette: 12-14 ATS, 5-5 ATS in last 10 games.
Villanova: 14-13 ATS, 6-4 ATS in last 10 games.
Head-to-Head: Marquette is 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.
Matchup analysis
Marquette Golden Eagles
Record: 20-6, 12-14 ATS
✅ Efficient offense (55.2% effective FG, 37th in NCAA)
✅ Strong defensive pressure (5th in steals per game)
✅ Forces turnovers (10th in opponent turnovers per game)
✅ Elite assist-to-turnover ratio (21st in NCAA)
❌ Struggles at the free-throw line (72.8%, 154th in NCAA)
❌ Mediocre rebounding (223rd in total rebounds per game)
Key injuries: None reported.
Villanova Wildcats
Record: 15-12, 14-13 ATS
✅ Elite free throw shooting (80.9%, 3rd in NCAA)
✅ Efficient from three (39.6%, 4th in NCAA)
✅ Limits opponent offensive rebounds (16th in NCAA)
✅ Strong defensive rebounding (13th in defensive rebounds per game)
❌ Inconsistent offensive production (137th in points per game)
❌ Weak shot-blocking (315th in blocks per game)
Key injuries: None reported.
Final score: Marquette 71 - Villanova 68
Outcome: Marquette wins outright | Key factors: Marquette’s defensive pressure, Villanova’s reliance on three-point shooting, and head-to-head dominance.
Spread pick
Marquette +2 (-110) | Reasoning: Marquette has covered in 8 of the last 10 matchups against Villanova and has an edge in forcing turnovers.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)
Moneyline pick 🔒
Marquette ML (+110) | Reasoning: Marquette's defense is capable of disrupting Villanova’s three-point shooting, and they have been the better team in recent matchups.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10)
Total points 🔒
Under 142.5 (-110) | Reasoning: Both teams have strong defenses, and the under has hit in 5 of Marquette’s last 7 and 4 of Villanova’s last 6 games.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)
🚀 Parlay play (high-risk, high-reward) 🔒
Marquette ML (+110)
Under 142.5 (-110)
Kam Jones - Over 2.5 threes (-115)
Odds: +425 (approximate)
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10) – Moderate risk, small stake recommended
💡 Betting strategy notes 🔒
🎯 Marquette’s defense should force Villanova into difficult shots, keeping the score lower.
✅ Villanova struggles to score inside, relying on threes—if they’re cold, Marquette wins outright.
📊 Marquette’s assist-to-turnover ratio gives them a major edge in ball movement.
🔥 If Marquette starts fast, there could be value in a Villanova live bet at a better number.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines (-3.5)
🕒 5:00 PM ET @ Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
💰 Moneyline: Michigan -164 / Michigan State +140 | Total: 152.5 (-110 over / -110 under)
Key betting trends:
Michigan State: 16-9-1 ATS overall, 3-1-1 ATS in last 5 games.
Michigan: 12-13 ATS, just 1-8 ATS in last 9 games.
Head-to-Head: Michigan State is 6-4 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings, covering the last two matchups.
Matchup analysis
Michigan State Spartans
Record: 21-5, 16-9-1 ATS
✅ Strong rebounding (13th in total rebounds per game)
✅ Excellent assist-to-FGM ratio (7th in NCAA)
✅ Elite free-throw shooting (80.3%, 7th in NCAA)
✅ Great ball movement (8th in assists per game)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (29.1%, 354th in NCAA)
❌ Below-average turnover rate (173rd in turnovers per game)
Key injuries: None reported.
Michigan Wolverines
Record: 20-5, 12-13 ATS
✅ High-scoring offense (81.6 PPG, 18th in NCAA)
✅ Efficient shooting (56.9% eFG, 10th in NCAA)
✅ Strong inside scoring (59.1% on two-pointers, 5th in NCAA)
✅ Tough perimeter defense (31.2% opponent three-point shooting)
❌ Turns the ball over too often (345th in turnovers per game)
❌ Below-average defense (71.0 opponent PPG, 130th in NCAA)
Key injuries: None reported.
Picks & predictions
Final score: Michigan 77 - Michigan State 73
Outcome: Michigan wins but fails to cover | Key factors: Michigan’s offensive efficiency vs. Michigan State’s defense, Spartans’ rebounding edge.
Spread pick
Michigan State +3.5 (-110) | Reasoning: Michigan’s ATS struggles (1-8 last 9 games) and Michigan State’s rebounding advantage make this a close matchup.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)
Moneyline pick 🔒
Michigan ML (-164) | Reasoning: Michigan’s home dominance (12-0) gives them the edge, but expect a tight contest. Either go with Michigan ML or go with Michigan State and the points.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10)
Total points 🔒
Under 152.5 (-110) | Reasoning: Michigan State’s defense (67.4 opponent PPG) and recent trends (last 3 Spartans games hit the under) suggest a lower-scoring game.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10)
🚀 Parlay play (high-risk, high-reward) 🔒
Michigan ML (-164)
Under 152.5 (-110)
Danny Wolf - Under 14.5 points (-120)
Odds: +375 (approximate)
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/10) – Moderate risk, small stake recommended
💡 Betting strategy notes 🔒
🎯 Michigan State’s rebounding edge could dictate the tempo, making them a strong ATS play.
✅ If Michigan starts hot from three, look for a live bet on Michigan State at a better spread.
📊 Michigan’s turnover issues could be a game-changer if Michigan State capitalizes in transition.
🔥 The under is the safest play, given recent trends and both teams’ defensive strengths.
Premier League Action
Leicester City vs. Brentford
📅 Date: February 21, 2025 | 🕛 Time: 12:00 PM ET | 🏟️ Venue: King Power Stadium
🔍 Match Analysis & Best Bets for Leicester vs. Brentford
This Premier League matchup brings two teams on different paths—Leicester fighting relegation, and Brentford pushing for a top-half finish. Can the Foxes pull off a much-needed home win, or will Brentford’s form carry them to another road victory?
🔑 Key Match Insights
✅ Leicester’s Defensive Struggles:
55 goals conceded in 25 games (2nd worst in the league).
Allowing 5.23 shots on target per game at home.
Winless in last five home games.
✅ Brentford’s Away Form & Strengths:
3 wins in last 12 away games, but better recent form.
Forcing opponents into 2+ bookings in 9 of 12 away games.
Higher goal-scoring efficiency than Leicester.
✅ Player to Watch: Bryan Mbeumo
Has attempted 3+ shots in 6 straight games.
Hit a shot on target in 5 straight starts.
Facing one of the league’s weakest defenses.
💰 Best Betting Picks & Predictions 🔒 [PREMIUM ONLY]
🏆 Top Bets
🔹 ✅ Bryan Mbeumo 1+ Shot on Target (-150)
📊 Stats to back it up:
Leicester allows 5.23 shots on target per home game.
Mbeumo has hit this in 5 straight starts and taken 3+ shots in 6 straight.
Brentford will likely dominate possession, giving Mbeumo shooting opportunities.
🎯 Confidence Level: 8/10
🔹 ✅ Leicester to Have 2+ Cards (-125)
📊 Stats to back it up:
Leicester averages 2.38 bookings per home game (3rd most in the PL).
Brentford forces 2+ opponent cards in 9 of 12 away matches.
Leicester’s aggressive midfield, led by Boubakary Soumare, often gets booked.
🎯 Confidence Level: 7/10
🔹 ✅ Over 3.5 Leicester Corners (-120)
📊 Stats to back it up:
Brentford concedes 8.2 corners per away game (most in the league).
Leicester averages 3.58 corners per home match, making 4+ achievable.
Leicester will likely be chasing the game, leading to more attacking plays.
🎯 Confidence Level: 7/10
🔹 ✅ Moneyline Pick: Brentford to Win (+126)
📊 Stats to back it up:
Leicester is in terrible form, struggling defensively and offensively.
Brentford has the better squad and coaching advantage.
Leicester has scored just 1 goal per game this season—3rd worst in the league.
📌 Final Score Prediction: Brentford 2-1 Leicester
🔥 Same-Game Parlay (+750)
💰 Build your bet slip with this high-value SGP:
✅ Bryan Mbeumo 1+ Shot on Target
✅ Over 2.5 Brentford Corners
✅ Over 2.5 Leicester Corners
✅ Over 2.5 Total Cards
💸 Odds: +750 at TonyBet
🧐 Key Matchup
👀 Boubakary Soumare (Leicester) vs. Brentford’s Attack
Leicester’s Boubakary Soumare is one of the most reckless defensive midfielders in the league:
8 yellow cards in 18 games (7 of them at home).
Averaging 1.33 fouls per 90 minutes.
Facing Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo & Mikkel Damsgaard, who thrive on fast, creative play.
⚠️ If you're looking for a player to get booked, Soumare is a great option.
📈 Additional Betting Insights
🔹 Player Prop Picks
🔥 Yoane Wissa Anytime Goal (+190)
Wissa has 78 career goals, scoring in 3 of his last 5 starts.
🔥 Jamie Vardy Over 1.5 Shots (-115)
Leicester’s main attacking outlet and likely to shoot often in desperation mode.
📝 Final Betting Card
✅ Bryan Mbeumo 1+ Shot on Target (-150)
✅ Leicester to Have 2+ Cards (-125)
✅ Over 3.5 Leicester Corners (-120)
✅ Brentford Moneyline (+126)
🎯 Same-Game Parlay (+750):
Mbeumo 1+ Shot on Target
Over 2.5 Brentford Corners
Over 2.5 Leicester Corners
Over 2.5 Total Cards
📌 Final Score Prediction: Brentford 2-1 Leicester
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