South Florida (#24) @ North Texas
Kick: 6:30 PM CT
Line: USF +2.5 | UNT -2.5
ML: USF +115 | UNT -135
Total: 67.0
Quick Read
Both teams come in hot off convincing wins. USF is balanced and efficient, while UNT has been one of the nation’s most productive offenses. The storyline: can USF’s varied run/pass attach grind on a UNT front that’s been gashed on the ground — or do the Mean Green’s explosiveness and elite ball security carry the night at home?
Matchup Edges (strength vs. weakness)
USF rush O (173.0 YPG; 4.7 YPC) vs UNT run D (217.8 YPG allowed; opp rush play% #134): Clear trench edge for the Bulls to keep chains moving and finish drives (USF RZ score% 93.3%, #31).
UNT pass D (147.8 PYPG, #6; 6.1 YPA, #26; opp comp% #13) vs USF pass O (7.5 YPA, #51): If UNT forces more 3rd-and-mediums, they can cap USF’s explosive pass plays.
UNT offense (0.641 pts/play, #3; 5.7 YPC, #12; 67.4% comp, #26; INT% #1) vs USF D takeaways (#2): Best-on-best: UNT never gives it away, USF takes it away. Turnover swing likely decides the side.
Tempo/possession: Both teams have low TOP% (USF #126; UNT #120) and strong red-zone numbers (UNT 100%, #1) → points come in bunches.
Fresno State @ Colorado State
Kick: 8:00 PM CT
Line: FRES -6.5 | CSU +6.5
ML: FRES -235 | CSU +195
Total: 47.5
Quick Read
Fresno’s riding five straight wins on a defense forcing takeaways and an offense content to lean run-first. CSU’s offense has struggled to sustain, while the defense has leaked chunk runs and 3rd-down conversions.
Matchup Edges (strength vs. weakness)
Fresno run O (4.9 YPC; 161.6 YPG) vs CSU run D (5.5 YPC allowed; 224.0 YPG, #128): Big trench mismatch; Bulldogs can script a clock-control plan.
Fresno D (22.0 PPG; 5.2 YPP allowed; takeaways 2.0/g, #13) vs CSU O (16.0 PPG; 4.9 YPP): Sustained success for CSU has been rare; pressure rate on CSU’s QB (sacked% 9.2%, #117) can kill drives.
Turnovers: Fresno throws picks at an elevated rate (INT% #124) but offsets with high defensive INT rate; CSU protects the ball (giveaways 0.5/g, #8). If CSU stays clean, that helps the dog hang — but they still must stop the run.
My Picks [Premium]
Rutgers @ Washington
Kick: 8:00 PM CT
Line: RUTG +11.0 | WASH -11.0
ML: RUTG +325 | WASH -435
Total: 61.5
Quick Read (editorial tightened)
Rutgers’ offense has popped, but the defense has been leaky against quality. Washington is balanced, efficient, and excellent vs the run — a tough road formula for Rutgers if they’re forced one-dimensional.
Matchup Edges (strength vs. weakness)
Washington run D (79.3 YPG, #9; 2.9 YPC, #17) vs Rutgers run O (3.5 YPC, #101): If the Huskies win early downs, Rutgers is pushed into a pass-heavier script.
Washington pass O (9.1 YPA, #15; 74.8% comp, #3) vs Rutgers pass D (8.8 YPA allowed, #120; opp comp% #123): Big efficiency edge through the air for UW.
Pressure caveat: UW’s QB sack% allowed is high (#133), but Rutgers’ pass-rush rate is only middling (#86). If Washington stays ahead of sticks, that mitigates the weakness.
Red zone/penalties: UW RZ score% 92.9% with low giveaways; Rutgers’ D allows TDs/drives to finish (opp points/play #119).