Louisville @ Miami (#2)
Line: Louisville +13.5 | Miami -13.5
Total: 50.5
Key Angles
Miami’s defense has been elite this season, allowing ~13.6 PPG.
Louisville’s run D is solid (allow ~111 YPG), but their offense is more pass-leaning; Miami’s front can pressure that.
Louisville’s pass defense has been competent (ranked ~top 15 in pass yard allowed) while Miami’s ground game is respectable (163 YPG).
In betting previews, some models suggest Louisville +14 “or better” is actionable against a favored Miami side.
Picks
Spread: Miami -13.5 — They have the defensive identity and home advantage to win big.
Total: Under 50.5 — Defensive slugfest potential, fewer big plays with Miami controlling the game.
Nebraska (#25) @ Minnesota
Line: Nebraska -7.5 | Minnesota +7.5
Total: 47.5
Key Angles
Nebraska’s offense ranks top in passing (310 YPG) and has a very stingy pass defense (leading in pass defense stats).
Minnesota’s offense leans pass more than run, and their run game has been weak in conference games.
In the Nebraska vs Minnesota stat matchup, Nebraska’s total defense is among the better units, especially vs the pass.
Picks
Spread: Nebraska -7.5 — Strong passing attack + defense matchup gives them room to cover.
Total: Under 47.5 (small) — Expect defense and turnovers to slow pace.
San Jose State @ Utah State
Line: SJSU +4.0 | USU -4.0
Total: 62.0
Key Angles
SJSU leads in passing offense (per previews), and Utah State’s defense has allowed big yardage in recent games.
Matchup breakdown: SJSU passes ~64.7% vs USU’s ~53.1% pass play rate; also, SJSU’s 3rd-down rate strong vs USU’s weakness there.
Utah State tends to lean more balanced; discipline issues (penalties, 3rd-down stops) have hurt them.
Picks
Spread: San Jose State +4.0 — Underestimate the passing efficiency and mismatch in third-down conversions.
Total: Over 62.0 — Expect shootout with back-and-forth passing attacks and big plays.
North Carolina @ California
Line: North Carolina +8.5 | California -8.5
Total: 47.5
Key Angles
California playing at home often leans toward physical defense and underdog suppression.
UNC’s offense has had up-and-down consistency; whether their passing or rushing gets going will be key.
The total is low (47.5), indicating book expects defensive tilt or limited big plays.
Pick(s)
Spread: No bet — Home edge + defense might suppress UNC’s number so maybe Cal is the better side.
Total: Under 47.5 — Both teams are pretty up and down on offense so let’s guess down today.