Tik Tok Ban Update — We Are Back! (Probably… for 90 Days)
Good news — it looks like Trump is going to do a 90-day extension on the Tik Tok ban. Who knows what happens after that but the good news is that keeps the lights on and you’ll see me once again on Tik Tok either tomorrow (if it’s not dark!) or Monday.
Let’s stack decks today… we have a big day in front of us! I’m so amped for these games. Massive email today — every NFL game plus all the NBA games. Forgive any errors and typos. So much data and info here. Let’s get into it…
NFL Divisional Round Deep Dive 🏈
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Game Details
Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025
Time: 4:30 PM ET
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Broadcast: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
Odds
Spread: Chiefs -8.0 (-120), Texans +8.0 (EVEN)
Moneyline: Chiefs -550, Texans +390
Total: Over 42.0 (-105), Under 42.0 (-115)
Kansas City Chiefs Overview
Record: 15-2 (3-5 ATS at home)
Key Stats:
Points/Game: 22.6 (15th)
Points Allowed/Game: 19.2 (4th)
Yards/Game: 327.6 (16th)
Yards Allowed/Game: 320.6 (8th)
Strengths:
Defense: Ranked 4th in points allowed and 3rd in sack percentage, Kansas City’s defense is the backbone of this team.
Patrick Mahomes in the Playoffs: Mahomes is 6-0 in the Divisional Round, rarely making mistakes in these critical games.
Experience: The Chiefs boast two Super Bowl wins in the last three seasons and are built for postseason success.
Weaknesses:
Rushing Attack: Ranked 29th in yards per rush, Kansas City struggles to establish a consistent ground game.
Offensive Consistency: Despite Mahomes' talent, the offense has lacked explosiveness, with no regular-season game exceeding 30 points.
Red Zone Efficiency: The Chiefs rank just 22nd in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns.
Injury Updates:
Key Return: CB Jaylen Watson, a critical piece of the secondary, is expected to play after missing significant time.
Limited: WR Mecole Hardman remains a question mark.
Houston Texans Overview
Record: 10-7 (4-3 ATS as underdogs)
Key Stats:
Points/Game: 22.4 (16th)
Points Allowed/Game: 21.3 (11th)
Yards/Game: 325.8 (18th)
Yards Allowed/Game: 312.0 (3rd)
Strengths:
Turnover Margin: The Texans rank 4th in the NFL with a +0.6 turnover margin per game, highlighted by four interceptions against Justin Herbert last week.
Run Defense: Ranked 10th in yards per rush allowed, Houston has been stout against the ground game.
Emerging QB: C.J. Stroud has demonstrated poise and playmaking ability, even if inconsistencies remain.
Weaknesses:
Offensive Line: Ranked 28th by PFF, Houston’s O-line has allowed 52 sacks this season, the second-most in the league.
Injuries: Missing WRs Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell significantly hampers the passing game.
Cold Weather Performance: Stroud struggles outdoors, particularly in sub-freezing conditions, with a passer rating nearly 15 points lower than in indoor games.
Injury Updates:
Key Absences: WR Stefon Diggs and WR Tank Dell remain out.
Questionable: RB Joe Mixon (ankle), OG Shaq Mason (knee).
Matchup Analysis
Chiefs Defense vs. Texans Offense:
Kansas City’s defense has been elite, ranking 4th in points allowed and excelling in pass rush metrics (5th in pressure rate). They face a Texans O-line that has struggled to protect Stroud all season.
With cold weather and gusty winds, Stroud’s ability to deliver accurate throws will be tested. The Chiefs will likely exploit his outdoor struggles with blitz packages.
Texans Defense vs. Chiefs Offense:
Houston’s secondary has been opportunistic (4 interceptions last week), but they’re missing key players like Jalen Pitre. Mahomes, who hasn’t thrown an interception in six straight games, is unlikely to replicate Herbert’s errors.
The Texans’ run defense is solid, but with Kansas City’s limited rushing attack, the game will hinge on Mahomes connecting with Travis Kelce and his wide receivers.
Special Teams and Intangibles:
Arrowhead Stadium is a significant home-field advantage, especially in the playoffs. The freezing conditions and loud crowd will make it challenging for the Texans to execute effectively.
Coaching edge goes to Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who have extensive playoff success.
Betting Trends
Chiefs:
6-0 SU in the Divisional Round under Mahomes.
3-5 ATS as home favorites this season.
10-7 to the Under.
Texans:
2-2 ATS as road underdogs this season.
11-7 to the Under.
8-8-2 ATS overall this season.
Predictions
Final Score: Chiefs 24, Texans 14
Spread: Chiefs -8.0 (-120)
Total: Under 42.0 (-115)
Best Bets
Chiefs -8.0: Mahomes’ postseason record and Houston’s offensive struggles in cold weather favor Kansas City covering the spread.
Under 42.0: With both defenses playing at a high level and weather conditions limiting scoring, the Under is a strong play.
C.J. Stroud Under 230.5 Passing Yards: Stroud’s outdoor struggles and the Chiefs’ pass rush should keep his yardage in check.
Props to Watch
Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 Interceptions (-160): Mahomes’ clean play in the postseason makes this a valuable prop.
Trent McDuffie Over 2.5 Tackles (-170): With the Texans targeting McDuffie’s side, this prop looks solid.
Isiah Pacheco Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110): The Chiefs are likely to rely on Pacheco to grind out the clock in the second half.
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
Game Details
Date: Saturday, January 18, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Broadcast: FOX
Odds
Spread: Lions -9.0 (-115), Commanders +9.0 (-105)
Moneyline: Lions -575, Commanders +400
Total: Over 55.5 (-120), Under 55.5 (EVEN)
Detroit Lions Overview
Record: 13-4 (NFC #1 seed)
Key Stats:
Points/Game: 33.2 (#1)
Yards/Game: 409.5 (#2)
Opp Points/Game: 20.1 (#7)
Opp Yards/Game: 342.4 (#20)
Strengths:
Elite Offense: The Lions lead the league in points and rank 2nd in yards per game. They excel at sustaining drives and converting in the red zone.
Aggressive Passing Game: Jared Goff has been efficient, complemented by one of the league's best offensive lines and weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Home-Field Advantage: Detroit is 7-1 at Ford Field this season, where their offense has been particularly dominant.
Weaknesses:
Defensive Vulnerabilities: Injuries in the secondary have left Detroit vulnerable to big plays, particularly against explosive passing attacks.
Struggles Against Mobile QBs: Historically, the Lions have had trouble containing mobile quarterbacks, a trait that Jayden Daniels brings to the table.
Red Zone Defense: Despite ranking 7th in points allowed, their red-zone defense is only middle-of-the-pack.
Washington Commanders Overview
Record: 12-5 (NFC #6 seed)
Key Stats:
Points/Game: 28.2 (#5)
Yards/Game: 368.6 (#6)
Opp Points/Game: 22.8 (#18)
Opp Yards/Game: 324.6 (#10)
Strengths:
Dual-Threat QB: Rookie Jayden Daniels has been exceptional, combining 3,568 passing yards, 891 rushing yards, and 31 total touchdowns.
Strong Rushing Attack: Ranked 3rd in rushing yards per game, the Commanders use Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., and Austin Ekeler effectively.
Underdog Mentality: The Commanders are riding a six-game win streak, including last week’s upset of Tampa Bay.
Weaknesses:
Defensive Inconsistencies: While solid against the pass (3rd in passing yards allowed), they’ve struggled against the run and allowed 22.8 points per game.
Inexperience: Relying on a rookie quarterback in a high-pressure road playoff game against the NFC’s top seed is a tough challenge.
Offensive Line Issues: Ranked 24th in sack percentage allowed, the Commanders' offensive line is a liability against Detroit’s aggressive pass rush.
Matchup Analysis
Detroit Offense vs. Washington Defense
Detroit boasts the league’s most efficient offense, led by Jared Goff and a versatile run game featuring Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Lions’ offensive line provides Goff with excellent protection (10th in sack percentage allowed).
Washington’s defense will need to generate pressure, but their pass rush faces a tough task against Detroit’s O-line. Expect the Lions to exploit Washington’s average secondary with quick passes to Amon-Ra St. Brown and deep shots to Jameson Williams.
Washington Offense vs. Detroit Defense
Jayden Daniels is a dynamic playmaker, and his ability to extend plays will be critical. Detroit may opt for a more disciplined pass rush to keep Daniels in the pocket.
The Lions’ defense, 27th in yards per play allowed, could struggle against Washington’s balanced attack. Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz are key targets, especially against Detroit’s injury-plagued secondary.
Key Factors
Game Script: If Detroit builds an early lead, Washington’s run-heavy offense may struggle to keep pace. However, if the Commanders can control the clock with long drives, they’ll limit Detroit’s offensive opportunities.
Turnovers: Detroit has a +0.5 turnover margin per game, while Washington is at +0.1. Turnovers could swing the game if Daniels forces throws under pressure.
Betting Trends
Lions:
7-1 SU at home this season.
4-1 ATS as home favorites of 7+ points.
10-7 to the Over this season.
Commanders:
4-2 ATS as road underdogs.
3-3 SU against playoff teams.
9-8 to the Over this season.
Predictions
Final Score: Lions 34, Commanders 27
Spread: Commanders +9.0 (-105)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Game Details
Date: Sunday, January 19, 2025
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Broadcast: NBC/Peacock
Weather: 32°F, definite snow, 9 mph wind
Odds
Spread: Eagles -6.0 (-120), Rams +6.0 (EVEN)
Moneyline: Eagles -280, Rams +230
Total: Over 43.0 (-115), Under 43.0 (-105)
Los Angeles Rams Overview
Record: 11-7 (NFC #4 seed)
Key Stats:
Points/Game: 21.9 (#19)
Yards/Game: 329.2 (#15)
Opp Points/Game: 21.9 (#15)
Rush Yards/Game: 103.1 (#24)
Strengths:
Experienced QB: Matthew Stafford remains a clutch playoff performer with the ability to find key targets like Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in crucial moments.
Pass Protection: The Rams rank 6th in sack percentage allowed, crucial against the Eagles’ pass rush.
Defense Peaking: Nine sacks and 12 QB hits against Minnesota in the Wild Card round showcased their ability to disrupt opposing offenses.
Weaknesses:
Inconsistent Run Game: Ranked 24th in rushing yards per game, which could be a problem in snowy conditions.
Travel and Weather: Playing outdoors on the East Coast, in snowy conditions, after a short week and a cross-country trip, poses challenges.
Defensive Depth: The Rams’ defense is effective but has struggled against high-powered offenses like Philadelphia’s.
Philadelphia Eagles Overview
Record: 15-3 (NFC #2 seed)
Key Stats:
Points/Game: 26.9 (#7)
Yards/Game: 362.9 (#10)
Opp Points/Game: 17.4 (#1)
Rush Yards/Game: 178.7 (#2)
Strengths:
Dominant Defense: Ranked 1st in points allowed and yards allowed per game, the Eagles excel at disrupting both the pass and run games.
Elite Rushing Attack: Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts lead a ground game that’s second in the NFL, averaging 178.7 rushing yards per game.
Home Field Advantage: 7-1 at home this season, with a dominant defense that thrives in bad weather.
Weaknesses:
Passing Offense: Ranked 30th in passing yards per game, the Eagles lean heavily on their rushing attack.
Injury Concerns: Key players like A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert are questionable, and Jalen Hurts’ passing ability may still be impacted by recent rust.
Weather Impact: Snowy conditions could limit their ability to rely on the passing game, putting more pressure on the ground attack.
Matchup Analysis
Eagles Offense vs. Rams Defense
The Eagles’ run-heavy offense is their strength, but snowy conditions will make their rushing game even more critical. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts will look to exploit the Rams’ 22nd-ranked run defense.
The Rams’ pass rush could pressure Hurts, but Philly’s offensive line is elite and ranks among the best in preventing sacks.
Rams Offense vs. Eagles Defense
Matthew Stafford faces a tough challenge against the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense, especially with snow potentially disrupting his rhythm.
The Rams will rely on quick passes to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, as their run game is unlikely to gain much traction against the Eagles’ strong rush defense.
Key Factors
Weather: Snowy conditions will favor the Eagles, who have a superior run game and defense.
Turnovers: The Eagles have a +0.8 turnover margin per game, and the Rams will need to play mistake-free football to stay competitive.
Game Script: If the Eagles take an early lead, they can lean on their run game and elite defense to control the game.
Betting Trends
Eagles:
12-6 ATS this season.
9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
7-1 SU at home this season.
Rams:
10-8 ATS this season.
6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
5-3 ATS on the road this season.
Predictions
Final Score: Eagles 24, Rams 17
Spread: Eagles -6.0 (-120)
Total: Under 43.0 (-105)
Best Bets
Eagles -6.0: Philadelphia’s superior defense and rushing attack give them a clear edge, especially in adverse weather.
Under 43.0: Snowy conditions and both teams’ defensive strengths point to a lower-scoring game.
Saquon Barkley Over 111.5 Rushing Yards: Barkley has been dominant and should continue to excel against the Rams’ weak run defense.
Player Props
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing TDs: Despite the conditions, Stafford will target Kupp and Nacua in the red zone.
A.J. Brown Under 4.5 Receptions: Weather and game script suggest fewer targets for Brown.
Puka Nacua Over 63.5 Receiving Yards: The Rams will lean on quick, short passes to move the ball.
Same-Game Parlay
Eagles -6.0
Under 43.0
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD
Odds: +500
Summary
The Eagles have the edge in almost every facet of this matchup. Their elite defense, dominant rushing attack, and home-field advantage make them the clear favorites, particularly with snow expected to play a role. The Rams will need a near-perfect performance from Stafford and their defense to pull off the upset.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Game Details
Date: Sunday, January 19, 2025
Time: 6:30 PM ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Weather: Teens with wind chills and likely snow
Odds
Spread: Ravens -1.0 (-110), Bills +1.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Ravens -115, Bills -105
Total: Over 51.0 (-115), Under 51.0 (-105)
Baltimore Ravens Overview
Record: 13-5 (AFC North Champions)
Key Stats:
Points/Game: 30.3 (#3)
Yards/Game: 427.1 (#1)
Rush Yards/Game: 193.8 (#1)
Strengths:
Elite Rushing Attack: Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson have combined to create the league’s top rushing offense, averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
Red Zone Efficiency: Ranked 1st in red zone touchdown percentage at 74.3%.
Explosive Plays: Leads the NFL in yards per play (6.8), which could exploit Buffalo’s 21st-ranked yards allowed per play defense.
Weaknesses:
Pass Defense: Baltimore ranks 31st in opponent passing yards, a concern against Josh Allen’s vertical attack.
Discipline: The Ravens rank near the bottom in penalties per game, which could be costly in a close matchup.
Road Performance: While strong, Baltimore has a slightly lower point differential on the road compared to at home.
Buffalo Bills Overview
Record: 14-4 (AFC East Champions)
Key Stats:
Points/Game: 30.9 (#2)
Turnover Margin: +1.3/game (#1)
Rush Yards/Game: 135.6 (#9)
Strengths:
Home Dominance: Undefeated at home (9-0) with a +17.5-point differential.
Ball Security: Fewest giveaways in the NFL, led by Josh Allen’s efficient play.
Defensive Playmakers: Top 10 in sacks and takeaways, allowing them to create game-changing plays.
Weaknesses:
Rush Defense: Ranked 12th but struggled in the first meeting, allowing 271 rushing yards.
Inconsistent Start: Buffalo has been prone to slow starts, which could be problematic against Baltimore's explosive offense.
Weather Challenges: While used to cold weather, Buffalo's pass-heavy attack may struggle in poor conditions.
Matchup Analysis
Ravens Offense vs. Bills Defense
Baltimore’s run game, led by Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, poses a significant challenge. Buffalo’s front seven will need to step up after allowing 271 rushing yards in the first meeting.
The Bills' linebackers, including Matt Milano, are critical in containing Jackson’s dual-threat ability.
Bills Offense vs. Ravens Defense
Josh Allen will test Baltimore’s 31st-ranked pass defense.
Buffalo’s offensive line, ranked 1st in fewest sacks allowed, must neutralize Baltimore’s strong pass rush.
Key Factors
Weather: Snow and cold temperatures favor Baltimore’s ground game over Buffalo’s pass-heavy attack.
Turnovers: Both teams excel in ball security, but Buffalo’s league-best turnover margin (+1.3) could be decisive.
Red Zone Efficiency: Baltimore leads the NFL in red zone touchdowns, a potential edge in a close contest.
Betting Trends
Ravens:
11-6-1 ATS this season.
6-3 ATS on the road.
7-1 SU against playoff teams this season.
Bills:
11-7 ATS this season.
6-2 ATS at home in the playoffs under Josh Allen.
9-0 SU at home this season.
Predictions
Final Score: Bills 27, Ravens 24
Spread: Bills +1.0 (-110)
Total: Under 51.0 (-105) — more like under 52 :)
Best Bets
Bills Moneyline (+100): Buffalo’s home dominance and ability to adjust to Baltimore’s rushing attack make them a solid pick.
Under 51.0 (-105): Snowy conditions and two strong defenses point to a lower-scoring game.
Josh Allen Anytime TD (+110): Allen’s rushing ability will be critical in the red zone.
Player Props
Lamar Jackson Over 54.5 Rushing Yards: Jackson will need to use his legs extensively to exploit Buffalo’s defense.
Josh Allen Over 24.5 Rushing Yards + Anytime TD: Allen will use his legs to make plays and score on the goaline.
Same-Game Parlay
Bills Moneyline
Under 51.0
Josh Allen Anytime TD
Odds: +500
Summary
This is a clash between two elite offenses and MVP-caliber quarterbacks. Buffalo’s home-field advantage, coupled with its defensive improvements and Josh Allen’s red zone efficiency, gives the Bills a slight edge in this tightly contested Divisional Round matchup. Snowy conditions favor the under, and turnovers could ultimately decide the outcome.
NBA Today January 18th
Here are the top 7 picks for today, selected based on confidence levels and analysis. The numbers are changing like crazy so do your best!
Spread Bets
Pacers -9.0 (-110)
Indiana’s dominance at home and Philadelphia’s depleted lineup (without Embiid) make this a strong pick.
Confidence Level: 9/10
Celtics -10.5 (-110)
Boston’s elite defense and Atlanta’s injuries give them the upper hand to cover the spread.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Pistons +2.0 (-110)
Detroit has been competitive recently and performs well as home underdogs, with Phoenix struggling ATS.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Totals
Under 227.0 - Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves (-110)
Both teams play at a slower pace, and Minnesota’s defense should limit scoring opportunities.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Over 224.0 - Rockets vs. Blazers (-110)
Defensive weaknesses on both sides and Houston’s fast pace support a high-scoring game.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Player Props
Devin Booker Over 28.5 Points (+110) — odds changed so I updated this!
Booker’s recent scoring surge and Detroit’s weak perimeter defense make this a strong play.
Confidence Level: 9/10
Jalen Green Over 23.5 Points (-109)
Green’s scoring streak and Portland’s defensive struggles align well for another big game.
Confidence Level: 9/10
Other NBA Prop Bets To Check Out
Jalen Duren Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120)
Duren has been a rebounding force, and Phoenix struggles on the glass (26th in total rebounds per game).
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Anthony Edwards Over 28.5 Points (-115)
Edwards has averaged nearly 30 PPG over his last 10 games and is heavily relied upon for Minnesota’s offense.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Myles Turner Over 1.5 Blocks (-135)
Turner consistently dominates the paint and faces a depleted 76ers frontcourt, making this a strong defensive play.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points (-110)
Tatum thrives in matchups against weak perimeter defenses like Atlanta’s (30th in Opp 3PT%).
Confidence Level: 9/10
Jordan Poole Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (-120)
Poole’s high shooting volume and motivation to perform against his former team set him up well for this line.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Deep Dive Into Every NBA Game for 11/18
Phoenix Suns vs. Detroit Pistons
Game Overview
Date/Time: January 18, 2025, 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Odds:
Spread: Suns -2.0 (-110), Pistons +2.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Suns -125, Pistons +105
Total Points: Over 226.5 (-110), Under 226.5 (-110)
The Suns, struggling with consistency, face a resurgent Pistons team. Detroit has been solid against the spread and at home, while Phoenix has been one of the league's worst ATS teams.
Matchup Insights
Phoenix Suns
Strengths:
5th in three-point shooting percentage (37.8%).
Offensive Rating: 9th in the NBA.
Devin Booker is in stellar form, scoring 30+ in four straight games.
Weaknesses:
Defensive Rating: 25th in the NBA.
Struggles in the paint (30th in points in the paint per game).
Jusuf Nurkic and Bradley Beal’s absences weaken their interior and playmaking.
Detroit Pistons
Strengths:
Cade Cunningham leads the team (24.4 PPG, 9.4 APG).
Strong rebounding team (9th in total rebounds per game).
Home-court advantage and improved consistency (7-3 in their last 10 games).
Weaknesses:
Inconsistent offense at times (15th in points per game).
Defensive lapses, allowing opponents to shoot 38% from three (29th in the NBA).
Betting Trends
Suns:
13-26-1 ATS this season.
6-16-1 ATS as favorites of 1.5 points or more.
5-7 SU in road games.
Pistons:
21-19-1 ATS this season.
16-10 ATS as underdogs of 1.5 points or more.
10-10 SU at home.
Best Bets
Spread: Pistons +2.0 (-110)
Analysis: Detroit has been competitive in recent games, winning seven of their last nine and performing well ATS as home underdogs. With Phoenix’s poor ATS record and injury concerns, Detroit has the edge to cover and potentially win outright.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Total: Under 226.5 (-110)
Analysis: Both teams average fewer combined points (225) than the total. Detroit’s defensive rebounding limits second-chance points, and Phoenix’s offensive efficiency could dip without Nurkic and Beal. A slower pace is likely.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Player Prop Bets
Devin Booker Over 31.5 Points (-115)
Analysis: Booker is on a tear, averaging 33.5 PPG over his last four games. Detroit’s poor perimeter defense (29th in opponent 3PT%) gives him an excellent chance to clear this line.
Confidence Level: 9/10
Jalen Duren Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120)
Analysis: Duren is a rebounding force, averaging 10.6 RPG in the last 10 games. Phoenix struggles with rebounding (26th in total rebounds per game), making this prop likely to hit.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Cade Cunningham Under 9.5 Assists (-125)
Analysis: Cunningham has gone under this line in nine of his last 10 games. Phoenix’s defensive focus will likely force him to score more than facilitate.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Same Game Parlay
Pistons +2.0
Under 226.5
Devin Booker Over 31.5 Points
Odds: Approx. +450
Prediction
Final Score: Pistons 113, Suns 109
Key Factors: Detroit’s home-court advantage, rebounding edge, and Phoenix’s injuries. Booker will have a big game, but Detroit’s balance and consistency will prevail.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
Game Overview
Date/Time: January 18, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: TD Garden, Boston
Odds:
Spread: Celtics -10.5 (-110), Hawks +10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Celtics -550, Hawks +390
Total Points: Over 235.5 (-110), Under 235.5 (-110)
The Celtics, one of the NBA’s best teams by record, face the Hawks, who have offensive firepower but struggle defensively. Boston's strong defense and efficient offense create a significant edge over Atlanta.
Matchup Insights
Boston Celtics
Strengths:
Elite defense (6th in Opp PPG at 108.4, 6th in FG% allowed at 45.3%).
Balanced scoring with Jayson Tatum (27.7 PPG) and Jaylen Brown (23.4 PPG).
Lead the league in 3PM per game (17.8).
Weaknesses:
Mediocre ATS record (17-24-0).
Can struggle to cover large spreads, especially in slower-paced games.
Atlanta Hawks
Strengths:
High-powered offense (117.2 PPG, 7th in the NBA).
Trae Young’s playmaking (23.1 PPG, 11.9 APG) and Jalen Johnson’s breakout year (19.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG).
Strong rebounding team (5th in total rebounds per game).
Weaknesses:
Weak defense (28th in Opp PPG at 119.1, 30th in Opp 3PT% at 38.1%).
Inconsistent ATS performance, especially on the road (9-13 ATS).
Betting Trends
Celtics:
Have gone under 235.5 points in 8 of their last 10 games.
17-2 when scoring over 119.1 points (Atlanta’s defensive average).
Struggle to cover large spreads at home (8-14 ATS).
Hawks:
Have gone over 235.5 points in 7 of their last 10 games.
16-16 ATS when scoring more than 108.4 points (Boston’s defensive average).
Struggled in previous matchup at TD Garden, losing 123-93.
Best Bets
Spread: Celtics -10.5 (-110)
Analysis: Boston’s elite defense will slow down Atlanta’s offense, especially with Trae Young and Jalen Johnson nursing minor injuries. The Celtics have blown out weaker defensive teams recently and have the firepower to cover this spread.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Total: Under 235.5 (-110)
Analysis: Boston’s slower pace (18th in possessions per game) and elite defense will likely limit Atlanta’s offensive output. The Hawks also struggle defensively, but Boston’s controlled style could prevent a high-scoring shootout.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Player Prop Bets
Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points (-110)
Analysis: Tatum thrives in big games, averaging 30+ in two of his last three. Atlanta’s weak perimeter defense (30th in Opp 3PT%) gives him a favorable matchup.
Confidence Level: 9/10
Trae Young Under 11.5 Assists (-115)
Analysis: Boston’s defense excels at limiting opposing playmakers (4th in Opp Assists/Game). Young may struggle to hit this line if Boston clamps down on secondary scoring.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Jaylen Brown Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120)
Analysis: Brown has hit this mark in 7 of his last 10 games and should take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defensive rebounding efficiency (23rd in Opp Def Rebounds).
Confidence Level: 8/10
Same Game Parlay
Celtics -10.5
Under 235.5
Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points
Odds: Approx. +400
Prediction
Final Score: Celtics 122, Hawks 109
Key Factors: Boston’s defensive dominance and Atlanta’s road struggles. While the Hawks can score, their defensive weaknesses make them vulnerable to a Celtics team that capitalizes on opponents’ inefficiencies.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers
Game Overview
Date/Time: January 18, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Odds:
Spread: Pacers -9.0 (-110), 76ers +9.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Pacers -370, 76ers +285
Total Points: Over 223.0 (-110), Under 223.0 (-110)
The Indiana Pacers, in strong form, host a severely depleted Philadelphia 76ers team. The Pacers are surging with seven wins in their last eight games, while the 76ers have lost four straight and are without MVP Joel Embiid and other key players. This game heavily favors the home team.
Matchup Insights
Indiana Pacers
Strengths:
High-powered offense, averaging 115.2 PPG (11th in NBA).
Excellent shooting efficiency (4th in FG%, 7th in 3PT%).
Balanced scoring from Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, and Tyrese Haliburton.
Weaknesses:
Below-average rebounding (27th in rebounds per game).
Mediocre defense, allowing 114.9 PPG (21st in NBA).
Philadelphia 76ers
Strengths:
Decent defensive metrics (11th in Opp PPG at 111.2).
Tyrese Maxey’s ability to score in isolation (26.0 PPG).
Weaknesses:
Injury-ravaged roster, missing Embiid, George, and others.
Lowest rebounding team in the league.
Struggle offensively, ranking 27th in PPG (107.6).
Betting Trends
Pacers:
Covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.
13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Have scored 115+ points in 8 of their last 10 games.
76ers:
Failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 8 games.
4-10 ATS on the road this season.
Struggling to score without Embiid, averaging 103 PPG in their last 5.
Best Bets
Spread: Pacers -9.0 (-110)
Analysis: Indiana has been dominant at home and is facing a 76ers team without its best player, Joel Embiid. The 76ers’ inability to score efficiently and rebound will allow the Pacers to control the game on both ends.
Confidence Level: 9/10
Total: Over 223.0 (-110)
Analysis: While the 76ers' offense is depleted, their weak defense and Indiana’s fast-paced style should push this game over the total. The Pacers have hit the over in 7 of their last 10 games.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Player Prop Bets
Tyrese Maxey Under 28.5 Points (-110)
Analysis: Maxey has averaged 22.2 PPG in his last 5 games on the road and will face increased defensive attention from Indiana’s perimeter defenders. Without Embiid to draw defenders, Maxey’s efficiency could drop.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points (-120)
Analysis: Siakam has averaged 23.6 PPG over his last 5 games and will exploit Philadelphia’s lack of interior presence without Embiid. Siakam is also shooting efficiently, making this line appealing.
Confidence Level: 9/10
Myles Turner Over 1.5 Blocks (-135)
Analysis: Turner is averaging 2.0 blocks per game and will dominate the paint against Philadelphia’s depleted frontcourt. Expect Turner to exceed this mark easily.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Same Game Parlay
Pacers -9.0
Over 223.0
Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 Points
Odds: Approx. +400
Prediction
Final Score: Pacers 126, 76ers 107
Key Factors: Indiana’s offensive efficiency and depth versus a short-handed 76ers team will lead to a decisive victory. Expect Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner to dominate the interior, while Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates the offense efficiently.
Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors
Game Overview
Date/Time: January 18, 2025, 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Odds:
Spread: Warriors -13.5 (-105), Wizards +13.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Warriors -850, Wizards +550
Total Points: Over 229.0 (-110), Under 229.0 (-110)
Golden State hosts Washington in what looks like a mismatch on paper. The Warriors aim to capitalize on home-court advantage against a Wizards team that has lost eight straight games and is winless in their last 15 road contests.
Matchup Insights
Golden State Warriors
Strengths:
Strong rebounding (3rd in rebounds per game).
Effective three-point shooting (36.5%, ranked 13th).
Top-10 defense in points allowed per game (110.8, ranked 9th).
Stephen Curry’s ability to control games with scoring and playmaking.
Weaknesses:
Struggling free-throw shooting (71.4%, last in NBA).
Key injuries to Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski limit depth.
Washington Wizards
Strengths:
Decent rebounding (17th in rebounds per game).
Scoring contributions from Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma.
Weaknesses:
Worst defense in the league (122.8 points allowed per game).
Poor shooting efficiency (27th in FG%, 29th in 3PT%).
Lack of leadership and injuries to key rotation players (Brogdon, Bagley III).
Betting Trends
Golden State Warriors:
Covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Southeast Division opponents with losing records.
Five straight wins against the Wizards, including a 125-112 road victory earlier this season.
Washington Wizards:
Failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 games as road underdogs on the first leg of a back-to-back.
1-15 on the road this season and 2-30 against teams outside their division.
Best Bets
Spread: Warriors -13.5 (-105)
Analysis: The Wizards’ abysmal defense and inability to compete on the road make it hard to trust them. Golden State has underperformed this season but showed grit in their win against Minnesota. With Curry and Wiggins in good form, the Warriors should easily outpace the Wizards.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Total: Over 229.0 (-110)
Analysis: Washington’s porous defense is likely to push this game over the total. Despite their struggles, the Wizards have consistently allowed high-scoring games, and the Warriors’ three-point shooting should exploit their weaknesses.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Player Prop Bets
Stephen Curry Over 27.5 Points (-115)
Analysis: Curry leads the Warriors in scoring and thrives against weak defenses like Washington’s. With Kuminga out, Curry will carry a heavier load offensively.
Confidence Level: 9/10
Jordan Poole Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (-120)
Analysis: Poole’s volume shooting gives him a good chance to hit this line, especially as he faces his former team in a high-scoring affair.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Kyle Kuzma Under 5.5 Rebounds (+105)
Analysis: Kuzma has gone under this line in 8 of his last 10 games and faces a strong rebounding team in Golden State.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Same Game Parlay
Warriors -13.5
Over 229.0
Stephen Curry Over 27.5 Points
Odds: Approx. +450
Prediction
Final Score: Warriors 126, Wizards 108
Key Factors: Golden State’s defense and rebounding will dominate, while the Wizards’ inability to defend the perimeter will lead to a barrage of three-pointers from Curry and Wiggins. Washington’s offensive struggles will make it difficult to keep pace.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Game Overview
Date/Time: January 18, 2025, 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Odds:
Spread: Cavaliers -7.5 (-110), Timberwolves +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cavaliers -280, Timberwolves +230
Total Points: Over 227.0 (-110), Under 227.0 (-110)
Cleveland is tied for the league’s best record and boasts the NBA’s highest offensive rating. Meanwhile, Minnesota looks to recover from back-to-back losses and remain in playoff contention, relying on a top-10 defense to keep this one close.
Matchup Insights
Cleveland Cavaliers
Strengths:
Elite offense: 122.1 points per game (2nd in NBA).
Best three-point percentage in the league (39.7%).
Strong defense at the rim and in limiting turnovers.
Weaknesses:
Poor offensive rebounding (23rd) and free throw attempts (21st).
Inconsistent three-point defense (21st in opponent 3PT%).
Injuries:
Isaac Okoro (shoulder) and Evan Mobley (calf) are questionable.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Strengths:
Top-10 defense: Allowing just 107.6 points per game (4th).
Strong three-point shooting (38.4%, ranked 4th).
Limiting opponents’ free throw attempts (6th).
Weaknesses:
Offensive struggles: 109.9 points per game (22nd).
Turnover issues (25th in turnover rate).
Injuries:
Terrence Shannon (out), Donte DiVincenzo (questionable), Leonard Miller (questionable).
Betting Trends
Cleveland Cavaliers:
Covered the spread in 27 of 40 games this season (67.5%).
Scored 115+ points in 3 straight games.
8-2 in their last 10 games, with an average margin of victory of 10.1 points.
Minnesota Timberwolves:
Covered the +6.5 line in their last 7 games.
5-5 in their last 10 games, averaging 111.7 points per game.
Best Bets
Spread: Cavaliers -7.5 (-110)
Analysis: Cleveland’s offense is built to exploit Minnesota’s vulnerabilities, particularly in forcing turnovers and capitalizing on three-point opportunities. While the Timberwolves boast a strong defense, their offensive inconsistency and high turnover rate are significant concerns against a team with Cleveland’s defensive discipline.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Total: Under 227.0 (-110)
Analysis: Despite Cleveland’s offensive firepower, Minnesota’s slow pace and defensive efficiency should keep this game below the total. Both teams have combined for fewer points than this total in recent matchups, and the Timberwolves struggle to sustain high-scoring games against elite teams.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Player Prop Bets
Darius Garland Over 6.5 Assists (-152)
Analysis: Garland has been distributing at an elite level, hitting this mark in 5 consecutive games. Against Minnesota’s turnover-prone backcourt, he’s primed for another strong playmaking performance.
Confidence Level: 9/10
Anthony Edwards Over 28.5 Points (-115)
Analysis: Edwards has averaged nearly 30 points per game over his last 10 outings. With Minnesota relying heavily on him for offense, he’s likely to clear this line.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Jaden McDaniels Over 10.5 Points (-115)
Analysis: McDaniels has hit this mark in 5 straight home games and will see opportunities as Cleveland focuses on Edwards and Gobert.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Same Game Parlay
Cavaliers -7.5
Under 227.0
Darius Garland Over 6.5 Assists
Odds: Approx. +500
Prediction
Final Score: Cavaliers 116, Timberwolves 104
Key Factors: Cleveland’s efficient offense, led by Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, will overwhelm Minnesota’s turnover-prone attack. The Timberwolves’ defense can keep things competitive early, but the Cavs’ superior depth and execution will wear them down late.
Let me know if you’d like adjustments or more analysis!
Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Game Overview
Date/Time: January 18, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
Venue: Moda Center, Portland, OR
Odds:
Spread: Rockets -11.5 (-110), Trail Blazers +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Rockets -650, Trail Blazers +450
Total Points: Over 224.0 (-110), Under 224.0 (-110)
Matchup Insights
Houston Rockets
Strengths:
Excellent rebounding: #1 in the league in offensive rebounding percentage (31%) and defensive rebounding percentage (75.9%).
Top-5 defense: Allowing just 108.0 points per game (5th).
Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are consistent offensive leaders, averaging 21.5 and 19.3 points per game, respectively.
Weaknesses:
Free throw shooting (75.9%, ranked 27th) and three-point efficiency (33.8%, ranked 28th).
Injuries:
Fred VanVleet (questionable), Jabari Smith Jr. (out), Jock Landale (out).
Portland Trail Blazers
Strengths:
Effective offensive rebounding (27.7%, ranked 4th).
Decent interior presence with DeAndre Ayton and strong shot-blocking (5.5 per game, ranked 8th).
Weaknesses:
Poor defense: 116.9 points allowed per game (24th).
Limited scoring: 107.9 points per game (26th).
High turnover rate (16.4 per game, ranked 29th).
Injuries:
Matisse Thybulle (out), Deni Avdija (questionable), Jerami Grant (questionable), Donovan Clingan (out).
Betting Trends
Houston Rockets:
Covered the spread in 23 of 40 games this season (57.5%).
The total has gone over 224.5 points in their last 6 games.
Averaging 115.6 points in their last 10 games.
Portland Trail Blazers:
Covered the +11.5 spread in 6 of their last 10 games.
The total has gone over 224.5 in 8 of their last 10 home games.
Averaging 108.6 points in their last 10 games.
Best Bets
Spread: Rockets -11.5 (-110)
Analysis: The Rockets have the clear advantage on the glass and defensively, with Portland struggling to score efficiently and committing turnovers at a high rate. Houston’s rebounding dominance, coupled with Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun’s offensive production, should help them cover the double-digit spread.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Total: Over 224.0 (-110)
Analysis: Both teams have defensive weaknesses that should lead to a higher-scoring game. The Rockets have been consistently hitting the over recently, and Portland’s inability to limit opponents’ fast breaks and three-point shooting will contribute to a total over 224.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Player Prop Bets
Jalen Green Over 23.5 Points (-109)
Analysis: Green has averaged 32 points over his last 5 games, and with Portland’s defensive struggles, he is poised for another big performance.
Confidence Level: 9/10
Alperen Sengun Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120)
Analysis: Sengun is averaging 10.4 rebounds this season and will take advantage of Portland’s poor defensive rebounding.
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Anfernee Simons Over 20.5 Points (-103)
Analysis: Simons has hit this mark in 7 of his last 10 games and remains Portland’s most reliable scoring option, especially with potential absences for Grant and Avdija.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Same Game Parlay
Rockets -11.5
Over 224.0
Jalen Green Over 23.5 Points
Odds: Approx. +500
Prediction
Final Score: Rockets 121, Trail Blazers 106
Key Factors: Houston’s defensive strength and rebounding dominance will overwhelm Portland’s depleted and inefficient offense. The Rockets’ balanced scoring attack led by Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun will secure a comfortable victory.
Final Thoughts
Sorry for any errors — moving fast today with so much info and data. Hope you do well on the games.
-Mike