🕒 9:00 PM ET @ Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
💰 Moneyline: Houston -700 / Arizona State +450 | Total: 134.5 (-105 over / -115 under)
Houston has an elite defense and a disciplined playstyle, but their slow pace makes covering large spreads a challenge. Arizona State has been scrappy as a double-digit underdog, keeping things close against top-tier opponents. With the Sun Devils’ ability to hang around and Houston’s tempo limiting blowout potential, we’re rolling with the underdog to cover.
Key betting trends:
Houston: 14-11 ATS overall, 8-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
Arizona State: 13-10-1 ATS overall, 3-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog.
Head-to-Head: These teams have not met since Arizona State joined the Big 12.
Matchup analysis
Houston Cougars
Record: 21-4, 14-11 ATS
✅ Elite defense (1st in opponent PPG at 57.3)
✅ Strong rebounding (67th in total rebounds per game, but 6th in offensive rebounding %)
✅ Efficient shooting (39.1% from three, 9th in NCAA)
✅ Disciplined play (4th in turnovers per game)
✅ Excellent shot-blocking (7th in block %)
❌ Struggles at the free-throw line (72.5%, 170th)
❌ Slow offensive pace (360th in tempo)
Key injuries: R. Walker (out - hand), J. McFarland (out - leg).
Arizona State Sun Devils
Record: 12-13, 13-10-1 ATS
✅ Decent outside shooting (9.1 threes per game, 60th in NCAA)
✅ Competitive rebounding (6th in Big 12 in rebounding rate)
✅ High steal rate (top 50 in steals per play)
✅ Strong shot-blocking (Quaintance averages 2.8 BPG)
✅ Resilient as an underdog (covered against Texas Tech, Cincinnati, WVU)
❌ Poor interior defense (opponents shoot 42.3% inside)
❌ Inconsistent offense (96th in offensive efficiency, 181st in PPG)
❌ Free-throw issues (71.4%, 227th)
Key injuries: J. Quaintance (questionable - ankle), A. Nunez (out - foot).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Houston 75 - Arizona State 66
Outcome: Arizona State covers the spread | Key factors: Houston’s elite defense, Arizona State’s resilience as a big underdog, and slow pace limiting blowout potential.
Spread pick | Arizona State +11.5 (-110) - Reasoning: Houston’s slow tempo makes it tough to cover large spreads, and ASU has covered in similar spots against top competition. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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