🕒 2:00 PM ET @ McKale Center, Tucson, AZ
💰 Moneyline: Houston -125 / Arizona +105 | Total: 137.5 (-110 over / -110 under)
Key betting trends:
Houston: 13-11 ATS overall, 6-2 ATS with 4+ days off.
Arizona: 14-10 ATS overall, 5-1 ATS vs. ranked opponents.
Head-to-Head: Houston won last meeting 72-60.
Matchup analysis
Houston Cougars
Record: 20-4, 13-11 ATS
✅ Elite defense (1st in opponent PPG, 57.3)
✅ Strong rebounding (4th in offensive rebound %)
✅ Low turnover rate (4th in turnovers per game)
❌ Free throw struggles (171st in FT%)
❌ Limited half-court offense (85th in effective FG%)
Key injuries: Ramon Walker (out – hand), Joseph McFarland (out – leg).
Arizona Wildcats
Record: 17-7, 14-10 ATS
✅ High-scoring offense (16th in PPG, 82.3)
✅ Strong rebounding (5th in total rebounds per game)
✅ Home-court dominance (12-3 at home)
❌ Perimeter struggles (276th in 3PT%)
❌ Turnover concerns (185th in turnovers per game)
Key injuries: Tautvilas Tubelis (questionable – concussion), Motiejus Krivas (out – lower leg).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Houston 70 - Arizona 65
Outcome: Houston covers the spread | Key factors: Defensive efficiency, rebounding edge, and turnover disparity.
Spread pick | Houston -1.5 (-110) - Reasoning: The Cougars’ defensive structure forces Arizona into an uncomfortable half-court game, limiting their transition offense. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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