This is a long email — if you can’t read it all inside of your email, just go to the MintedBets website and everyone can see the full email there.
Yesterday, was a MASSIVE day btw, which is why I am adding more to Minted Bets so we can continue to win together.
We are celebrating today by giving away this entire newsletter to all subscribers and opening up some more ways to make money!
🚨Big Announcement Today!
Some big things to discuss today…
I am rolling out new features to Premium Subscribers at no additional cost. You will now have access to my premium betting Discord!
The Discord has over 500 people in it, including several very good sports bettors. We have picks coming from various people daily across basketball, football, soccer, UFC, hockey, and more!
This is where I will be able to post live bets, updates, and other opportunities that come through out the day. Yesterday alone, we hit 10+ live bets in college basketball!
We have picks from myself going in there as well as 3 other longtime members. The Discord has been private for the past year so we have a really good group in there. I only ask that you be respectful or you will be booted out.
If you like watching games with other people and chatting, we do that also.
👉Upgrade to Premium Now and get Access to the Discord —> Right Here
Once you upgrade, reply back to this email, and I will add you to the Discord immediately. We are using private links that expire so it is very exclusive and not available to everyone.
So, if you upgrade, reply back. I will continue sending out a new Discord link for Premium subscribers each week as a reminder to join so you don’t miss out.
🔒Premium Only💰
Access the Discord right here. This link will expire in 7 days so jump in there ASAP.
If you cancel your premium, you will also be removed from Discord. The value of the Discord is insane, guys!
Each week, I will send out a new link to access the Discord via email (in case you miss it this time). We want it to be as private and exclusive as possible.
Jump in there and look around. There are channels for every sport and we have picks as well from different people all over the world. Manage your preferences by silencing stuff you’re not interested in or just be in all the action like me :).
The newsletter will continue as it is. Keep in mind, I do the newsletter early in the morning and the night before. This is why the addition of the Discord is so valuable — things change throughout the day!
However, the value in the newsletter is to have perspective on the day and understand the context of picks. This helps you adjust to what happens later in the day or to live bets. Yesterday, for example, I hedged over 5 bets live because I had several parlays and other bets coming down to one single team (good problem to have!). The bets were made early, and the hedges were made live.
Alright, let’s get into the action!
🏀College Basketball Conference Championship Picks - 3/16
1️⃣ Yale -5.5 vs. Cornell
2️⃣ VCU -8.0 vs. George Mason (more so ML in parlays)
3️⃣ Florida -5.0 vs. Tennessee
4️⃣ UAB +4.5 vs. Memphis (look for over +5 if you can)
5️⃣ Wisconsin -3.5 vs. Michigan (look for under -3 if you can)
All times below are in Pacific Time.
1. Cornell vs. Yale (9:00 AM)
Pick: Yale -5.5
Moneyline: Cornell +205, Yale -245
Over/Under: 159.5
Prediction: Yale is the stronger team overall with a solid defense and efficient offense. Cornell has an explosive offense but struggles defensively. Expect Yale to control the tempo and cover the spread.
2. George Mason vs. Virginia Commonwealth (10:00 AM)
Pick: VCU -8.0
Moneyline: George Mason +300, VCU -400
Over/Under: 127.5
Prediction: Really love George Mason, but this is a bad matchup. VCU’s defensive pressure will likely disrupt George Mason's offensive rhythm — GM does not have a point guard and will struggle with pressure. VCU has the matchup here.
3. Tennessee (#8) vs. Florida (#4) (10:00 AM)
Pick: Florida -5.0
Moneyline: Tennessee +175, Florida -210
Over/Under: 143.0
Prediction: This should be a competitive matchup, but Florida has the edge with a balanced attack and more consistency. Expect Florida to win and cover easily — not big — but in control of the game.
4. UAB vs. Memphis (#16) (12:15 PM)
Pick: UAB +4.5
Moneyline: UAB +175, Memphis -210
Over/Under: 160.5
Prediction: Memphis plays with strong defensive intensity, which should help them control UAB’s offense. However, Memphis has been pretty lazy throughout this tournament and they’ve been turning the ball over while giving up tons of points. They will need to step it up and play a full game — I don’t see it happening now.
5. Wisconsin (#18) vs. Michigan (#22) (12:30 PM)
Spread: Wisconsin -3.5
Moneyline: Wisconsin -165, Michigan +140
Over/Under: 149.5
Prediction: Wisconsin’s disciplined offense and efficient shooters give them the upper hand here. Expect them to control this game and cover the spread. Michigan is too inconsistent.
Okay, okay… how about a big parlay for tomorrow’s games?
🏀NBA Picks & Analysis Today - 3/16
Overall, my bets are going to be on the Hornets, Suns, 76ers (all underdogs and taking the points) — also taking the Thunder -4. I’m going to play an alt spread on the 76ers winning by 3 points for +260 as well. I just think Dallas is shot and the fans are not going to help their home court advantage.
Not a super high confidence NBA slate today. Better to focus more on college basketball. I made all of the above plays late last night. Sometimes I get value, sometimes not :).
Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tip-off: 1:00 PM (EST)
Venue: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
Spread: Cavaliers -11.0 (-110) | Magic +11.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Cavaliers -525 | Magic +375
Total (O/U): 219.0 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Spread changed overnight to -10
Magic: 31-37 ATS overall, lowest-scoring offense in the league (30th in PPG).
Cavaliers: 42-23-1 ATS, elite offense (1st in PPG), strong defense (2nd in defensive rating).
Head-to-Head: Cavaliers have won the last three meetings, including a 122-82 blowout on February 25, 2025.
Key Factors
Cleveland’s elite scoring, Orlando’s defensive capabilities, and potential injuries to Donovan Mitchell (groin) and Evan Mobley (foot). Both are questionable but I think there’s good reason to like CLE if one or both plays. If not, still a good chance to cover at home. Orlando probably can’t hang with the top team in the league right now.
Matchup Breakdown
Orlando Magic (31-37)
Strengths:
Strong defense (1st in opponent PPG).
Top 5 in opponent effective FG%.
Weaknesses:
Lowest-scoring offense (30th in PPG).
Worst three-point shooting team in the league (30th in 3PT%).
Cleveland Cavaliers (56-10)
Strengths:
Best offense in the league (1st in PPG).
High shooting efficiency (Top 3 in FG% and 3PT%).
Strong defense (2nd in defensive rating).
Weaknesses:
Potential injury concerns for key players. That’s about it.
Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick: Cavaliers -10.0 (-110)
Cleveland dominates at home, and Orlando's offense struggles.
Total Points (O/U): Under 219.0 (-110)
Orlando’s slow tempo and defensive play style lean toward the under.
Top Player Props:
Paolo Banchero - Under 25.5 Points (gambling on CLE defense focusing on him)
Franz Wagner - Under 4.5 Assists
Donovan Mitchell - Over 4.5 Assists
Parlay Play:
Betting Notes:
Cavaliers ATS and ML are strong plays based on home performance.
Keep an eye on injury reports for Mitchell and Mobley.
Garland props hold value based on recent trends.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tip-off: 1:00 PM (EST)
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Spread: Mavericks -6.0 (-115) | 76ers +6.0 (-105)
Moneyline: Mavericks -250 | 76ers +210
Total (O/U): 225.0 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
76ers: 24-42 ATS, struggling with injuries and depth issues.
Mavericks: 31-34-3 ATS, inconsistent but better at home.
Head-to-Head: 76ers have won the last two meetings, including a 118-116 win on February 4, 2025.
Key Factors
Injuries to key players, recent team form, and home-court advantage for Dallas.
Matchup Breakdown
Philadelphia 76ers
Strengths:
Bench players stepping up despite injuries.
Weaknesses:
Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey are all sidelined.
Defensive struggles leading to high opponent scoring.
Dallas Mavericks
Strengths:
None, honestly. They might not even have enough players to play the game.
Weaknesses:
Inconsistent defensive play.
Injuries. Sad fan base.
Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick: 76ers +6.5 (-115)
Both teams are equally injured. Is this even a home court advantage for the Mavs these days? I’ll take Philly. I’m also hunting Philly on the ML here.
Total Points (O/U): Over 225.0 (-110)
Dallas’ fast pace and Philly’s defensive issues lean toward the over.
Top Player Props:
Max Christie - Over 12.5 Points
Parlay Play:
Honestly, I’d probably just stay away from getting extra money involved here.
Betting Notes:
If betting live, look for a strong first-half showing from Dallas and take Philly with more points.
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tip-off: 12:30 PM (EST)
Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Spread: Lakers -4.0 (-110) | Suns +4.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Lakers -175 | Suns +150
Total (O/U): 230.5 (-105 Over / -115 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Suns: 30-33-2 ATS, elite offense but struggling against top-tier defenses.
Lakers: 29-35-1 ATS but dangerous at home.
Head-to-Head: Lakers have won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Key Factors
Matchup of two high-powered offenses, Lakers’ home form, and Suns’ defensive struggles. The Lakers are still very beat up and missing at least 2 starters with Luka also Questionable.
Matchup Breakdown
Phoenix Suns
Strengths:
Kevin Durant and Devin Booker’s scoring duo.
Top 5 in FG% and 3PT%.
Weaknesses:
Defense ranks 26th in opponent PPG.
Poor rebounding (25th in total rebounds).
Los Angeles Lakers
Strengths:
Home-court advantage.
Strong rebounding (7th in total rebounds).
Team is fighting hard without key players.
Weaknesses:
Inconsistent defensive effort.
Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick: Suns +4
At home, the Lakers are great but missing 2-3 starters potentially is going to start wearing them down. Hopefully the Suns show up to play — that’s a big IF. I don’t think the Lakers have the perimeter defense to stop Booker and KD in this game.
Total Points (O/U): Over 230.5 (-105)
Two elite offenses should push the total past 230.
Top Player Props:
Kevin Durant - Over 24.5 Points
Bradley Beal - Over 15.5 Points
Austin Reaves - Over 5.5 Assists
Parlay Play:
PHX ML + Durant Over 24.5 Points (+254)
Betting Notes:
Look for fast-paced, high-scoring action.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tip-off: 3:00 PM (EST)
Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Spread: Hawks -6.0 (-110) | Nets +6.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Hawks -230 | Nets +190
Total (O/U): 228.5 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Hawks: 23-27 ATS; potent offense (5th in PPG) but defensive struggles (26th in opponent PPG).
Nets: Offensive inefficiencies (29th in PPG) and defensive challenges (24th in defensive rating).
Head-to-Head: Hawks have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, covering the spread in each victory.
Key Factors
Atlanta's high-scoring offense led by Trae Young's league-leading assists (11.5 APG) and Dyson Daniels' defensive prowess (3.0 SPG). Brooklyn's injury woes, notably Cam Thomas' absence, impacting their scoring ability. Thomas is now out for the year after having a great run the past week or so.
Matchup Breakdown
Atlanta Hawks
Strengths:
High-paced offense (5th in PPG).
Elite playmaking (1st in APG).
Defensive disruptor in Dyson Daniels (leads league in steals).
Weaknesses:
Defensive lapses (26th in opponent PPG).
Inconsistent three-point shooting (22nd in 3PT%).
Brooklyn Nets
Strengths:
Home-court familiarity.
Potential for bench players to step up amid injuries. In a familiar position with Thomas out, but definitely not the same team missing him.
Weaknesses:
Struggling offense (29th in PPG).
Defensive inefficiencies (24th in defensive rating).
Injuries to key players affecting team cohesion.
Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick: Hawks -6.0 (-110)
Atlanta's offensive firepower and Brooklyn's injury-plagued roster favor the Hawks covering the spread.
Extra Pick: Hawks -3 first half. ATL should get up early and blow them out.
Total Points (O/U): Over 228.5 (-110)
Both teams' defensive vulnerabilities suggest a high-scoring affair.
Top Player Props:
Trae Young - Over 10.5 Assists
Dyson Daniels - Over 2.5 Steals
Parlay Play:
Hawks -5.5
Hawks 1st Half Winner
Trae Young Over 10.5 Assists
Betting Notes:
Consider live betting if Atlanta starts sluggishly; their offense can surge in later quarters.
Cam Thomas injury changes Brooklyn completely.
Toronto Raptors vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tip-off: 3:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Moda Center, Portland, OR
Spread: Trail Blazers -7.5 (-110) | Raptors +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Trail Blazers -290 | Raptors +240
Total (O/U): 228.5 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Raptors: 24-43 overall; currently on a three-game road win streak.
Trail Blazers: 28-39 overall; have lost five consecutive games.
Head-to-Head: Trail Blazers have won seven of the last ten meetings.
Key Factors
Portland is struggling, losing five straight, but has performed well against weaker teams this season. Toronto is heating up, winning six of its last seven games, showing significant improvement on both ends.
Matchup Breakdown
Toronto Raptors
Strengths:
Riding a three-game win streak, showing strong momentum.
Balanced scoring from Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett.
Weaknesses:Season-long struggles with consistency.
Defensive lapses have led to high opponent scoring.
Portland Trail Blazers
Strengths:
Home-court advantage. Pretty solid at home.
Reliable scoring from Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons.
Weaknesses:
Five-game losing streak, struggling to close games, but all good losses to superior teams.
Key injuries affecting depth and interior defense.
Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick: Raptors +7.5 (-110)
Toronto’s recent form and Portland’s struggles suggest the Raptors can keep it close.
Total Points (O/U): Under 228.5 (-110)
Both teams have shown inconsistency on offense, pointing to a lower-scoring game.
Top Player Props:
Scottie Barnes - Over 19.5 Points
RJ Barrett - Over 20.5 Points (+105) - if he plays.
Anfernee Simons - Over 4.5 Assists
Shaedon Sharpe - Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Parlay Play:
Staying away from a parlay in this one.
Betting Notes:
Monitor injury reports, as Portland is dealing with key player absences.
Worth noting that both of these teams are terrible in the first quarter. It might be worth a gamble to play the under 55.5.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tip-off: 4:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, CA
Spread: Clippers -12.0 (-110) | Hornets +12.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Clippers -750 | Hornets +500
Total (O/U): 222.5 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Spread moved up to 13 overnight.
Hornets: 17-49 overall; have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
Clippers: 37-30 overall; have won five of their last six games.
Head-to-Head: Clippers have won every matchup since 2017.
Key Factors
The Clippers have been solid at home. However, Charlotte has been more competitive lately, covering in four of its last five games.
Matchup Breakdown
Charlotte Hornets (17-49)
Strengths:
Improving defensive effort, ranking in the middle of the league in defensive rating.
Strong offensive rebounding, creating second-chance opportunities.
Lamelo Ball scoring more again.
Weaknesses:
One of the worst offenses in the league, ranking near the bottom in efficiency.
Inconsistent shooting from the field and three-point range. Relying on 1-2 guys every night.
Los Angeles Clippers (37-30)
Strengths:
Elite defensive team, ranking among the best in opponent PPG.
Strong rebounding, limiting second-chance opportunities for opponents.
Weaknesses:
Occasionally struggles with offensive consistency.
Heavy reliance on key players and iso, ball.
Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick: Hornets +13.0 (-110)
Charlotte has been covering in recent games, and a double-digit spread is a lot to lay for a Clippers team that has been average lately and maybe showing their age as the season goes on.
Total Points (O/U): Under 222.5 (-110)
Clippers’ strong defense and Hornets’ offensive struggles lean toward the under.
Top Player Props:
LaMelo Ball - Over 28.5 Points + Assists (+105)
Ivica Zubac - Over 16.5 Points
Parlay Play:
Hornets +13
Zubac - Over 16.5 Points
Ball - Over 12 Assists + Reb
Betting Notes:
There’s a chance Normal Powell is coming back this game. His points are set at 17.5.
If Hornets keep it close early, their +13 spread could hold strong.
Zubac is on fire lately.
Utah Jazz vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tip-off: 4:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Spread: Timberwolves -13.5 (-110) | Jazz +13.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Timberwolves -800 | Jazz +525
Total (O/U): 232.5 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Jazz: 15-52 overall; currently on an eight-game losing streak.
Timberwolves: 39-29 overall; riding a seven-game winning streak.
Head-to-Head: Timberwolves have won seven of the last ten meetings against the Jazz.
Key Factors
Minnesota is on fire, winning seven straight, while Utah has been in a free fall, losing eight in a row. The Timberwolves’ elite defense and balanced scoring make them a heavy favorite, while the Jazz continue to struggle on both ends of the court.
Matchup Breakdown
Utah Jazz
Strengths:
Potential for offensive outbursts, especially from perimeter shooting.
Young talent capable of high-energy performances.
Weaknesses:
Defensive lapses leading to high opponent scoring.
Inconsistent offensive execution, particularly against strong defenses.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Strengths:
Balanced offensive attack with multiple scoring options.
Stingy defense, limiting opponents' shooting percentages.
Weaknesses:
Occasional turnovers under defensive pressure.
Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick: Timberwolves -13.5 (-110)
Minnesota’s is healthy and hot — Utah’s struggling and banged up. This is a huge number so I am staying away.
Total Points (O/U): Under 232.5 (-110)
Minnesota’s defense should limit Utah’s scoring, leading to a lower total.
Top Player Props:
Walker Kesler - Over 22.5 PRA
Dante Divencenzo - Over 12.5 Points
Lauri Markkanen - Over 17.5 Points
Parlay Play:
Kesler Over 22.5 PRA
Markkanen Over 15 Points
Timberwolves ML
Betting Notes:
Monitor injury reports for both teams before placing bets.
If Utah starts strong, live betting on Minnesota for a smaller number could offer value.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tip-off: 6:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Spread: Thunder -4.0 (-110) | Bucks +4.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -170 | Bucks +145
Total (O/U): 232.5 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Thunder: 54-12 overall; leading the Western Conference with a strong road record.
Bucks: 37-28 overall; solid home performance with a 23-11 record. Pretty hot since the All-Star break.
Head-to-Head: Thunder dominated the last meeting with a 125-96 victory.
Key Factors
Oklahoma City boasts the best defense in the NBA, allowing just 107.2 points per 100 possessions, while Milwaukee relies on its high-powered offense, ranking among the top in three-point shooting. The Thunder should be getting a few players back and close to full strength.
Matchup Breakdown
Oklahoma City Thunder (54-12)
Strengths:
Elite defense, leading the league in defensive rating.
Efficient offense with balanced scoring options.
Weaknesses:
Occasional reliance on perimeter shooting.
Milwaukee Bucks (37-28)
Strengths:
High-octane offense with strong three-point shooting.
Dominant performances from star players.
Very good at home.
Weaknesses:
Defensive inconsistencies against top-tier offenses.
Having trouble closing out games.
Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick: Thunder -4.0 (-110)
Oklahoma City’s defensive strength and Milwaukee’s inconsistency against elite teams.
Total Points (O/U): Under 232.5 (-110)
Both teams have defensive capabilities and there are good matchups all over the floor.
Top Player Props:
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Over 11.5 Rebounds
Lopez - Under 5.5 Rebs
Parlay Play:
SGA - Under 34.5 Points
Lopez - Under 5.5 Rebs
Kuzma - Over 12.5 Points
Betting Notes:
Oklahoma City’s defense should dictate the pace, leading to a lower-scoring game.
Live betting could be valuable if Milwaukee gets out to an early lead but struggles late against the Thunder’s adjustments. OKC can go on huge runs.