🕒 8:30 PM ET @ Kohl Center, Madison, WI
💰 Moneyline: Wisconsin -185 / Illinois +155 | Total: 160.5 (-115 over / -105 under)
Illinois has elite rebounding and a fast-paced offense, but their poor three-point shooting and turnover issues make them unreliable on the road. Wisconsin, on the other hand, thrives on efficiency, hitting free throws at a ridiculous rate and keeping mistakes to a minimum. With Illinois struggling against disciplined teams, we’re backing the Badgers at home.
Key betting trends:
Illinois: 13-13 ATS, struggles on the road (3-5 ATS).
Wisconsin: 16-9 ATS, strong home record (7-6 ATS).
Head-to-Head: Illinois won the last meeting 86-80 but has lost 3 of the last 5 in Madison.
Matchup analysis
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 17-9, 13-13 ATS
✅ Elite rebounding (1st in rebounds per game)
✅ Strong scoring (6th in PPG at 84.3)
✅ High-tempo offense (16th in pace)
✅ Strong interior scoring (18th in 2PT%)
✅ Solid defensive rebounding (1st in defensive rebounding rate)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (309th in 3PT%)
❌ High turnover rate (180th in turnovers per game)
❌ Defensive inconsistency (147th in opponent PPG)
Key injuries: M. Johnson (out - wrist), T. Rodgers (out - redshirt).
Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 20-5, 16-9 ATS
✅ Efficient offense (6th in offensive efficiency)
✅ Strong three-point shooting (50th in 3PT%)
✅ Elite free throw shooting (1st in FT%)
✅ Balanced scoring (21st in PPG at 81.5)
✅ Low turnover rate (21st in turnovers per game)
❌ Weak offensive rebounding (302nd in offensive rebounding rate)
❌ Below-average perimeter defense (124th in opponent 3PT%)
❌ Mediocre rebounding (125th in total rebounds per game)
Key injuries: J. Robison (questionable - undisclosed).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Wisconsin 81 - Illinois 75
Outcome: Wisconsin covers the spread | Key factors: Wisconsin’s efficiency, Illinois’ struggles from three, home-court advantage.
Spread pick | Wisconsin -4.5 (EVEN) - Reasoning: Wisconsin’s offense is significantly more efficient, and Illinois’ poor three-point shooting makes it difficult to keep pace. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
Moneyline pick 🔒 | The rest of this game’s picks are for premium subscribers. |
Total points 🔒 | The rest of this game’s picks are for premium subscribers. |
The rest of this game’s analysis is for premium subscribers. Get instant access →
Subscribe to Stack Decks Premium
Become a premium subscriber to get access to 5-10 or more picks every day.
Upgrade Now!