🕒 5:00 PM ET @ XFINITY Center, College Park, MD
💰 Moneyline: Maryland -710 / Iowa +490 | Total: 158.5 (-110 over / -110 under)
Maryland is undefeated at home and thrives on defense, while Iowa struggles on the boards and has been unreliable as an underdog. The Terrapins’ interior presence should give them the edge, making it tough for Iowa to keep up. We’re backing Maryland to handle business and cover the number.
Key betting trends:
Iowa: 10-14 ATS overall, 2-7 ATS as an underdog.
Maryland: 12-12-1 ATS overall, 8-6-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Head-to-Head: Maryland has won the last two meetings, covering both times.
Matchup analysis
Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 14-10, 10-14 ATS
✅ High-scoring offense (11th in NCAA at 84.5 PPG)
✅ Efficient shooting (49.6% FG, 37.8% 3PT)
✅ Strong ball movement (5th in assists per game)
✅ Quick tempo (28th in pace of play)
✅ Dangerous from three (10.0 3PM per game, 26th in NCAA)
❌ Weak interior defense (335th in opponent PPG)
❌ Poor rebounding (297th in total rebounds per game)
❌ Inconsistent free throw shooting (68.8%)
Key injuries: Drew Thelwell (Q – Undisclosed), Cooper Koch (Q – Undisclosed), Owen Freeman (OUT – Finger)
Maryland Terrapins
Record: 19-6, 12-12-1 ATS
✅ Balanced scoring (82.8 PPG, 19th in NCAA)
✅ Elite defense (66.8 OPPG, 50th in NCAA)
✅ Strong rebounding (36.9 RPG, 74th in NCAA)
✅ Tough interior presence (Queen & Reese combine for 15.7 RPG)
✅ Excellent home play (13-0 SU at XFINITY Center)
❌ Struggles from the FT line (74.0%, 110th in NCAA)
❌ Turnover-prone (10.4 per game)
❌ Slower tempo (68th in pace)
Key injuries: Jahmir Young (Q – Knee), T. Gapare (Q – Undisclosed), C. Stephens (Q – Undisclosed), B. Pierce (OUT – Eye)
Picks & predictions
Final score: Maryland 85 - Iowa 72
Outcome: Maryland covers the spread | Key factors: Maryland’s defense, Iowa’s rebounding struggles, and the Terrapins' dominance at home.
Spread pick | Maryland -11.5 (-110) - Reasoning: Maryland has covered six of its last 10 games as a double-digit favorite. With Iowa’s interior struggles, Maryland should control the game inside. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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