March Madness Day 4 + NBA Picks Today - Sunday, 3/23

These days are like an eternity with games nonstop all day. I started the day off way up, then got way down, and then got a ton of money back at the end of the night. What a crazy day. Lucky there is only one more day packed with action!

I will be at the college games tomorrow evening in Seattle — Colorado State vs. Maryland and Oregon vs. Arizona. Look for me behind the bench row 1 on the left side! I need to get out of the house after being on the computer for 17 hours per day the last 40 days and consuming zero sugar or alcohol. It’s been quite a run!

To be fair, there were plenty of close misses and disappointments, specifically Texas A&M and Wisconsin, but Tennessee was the biggest bet of the day by far. Coby White just refuses to go under any point total. Also hit some lives on Arkansas.

Analysis: Both teams boast strong defensive units. Florida allows an average of 68.2 points per game, while Connecticut holds opponents to 66.9 points per game. This defensive prowess suggests a lower-scoring affair, making the under on total points a strategic play. Florida is my favorite team in this tournament and I think they’re going to run through most teams, including UCONN.

Analysis: Cooper Flagg looked good and Duke dominated as expected. However, Baylor fights pretty hard, and I don’t think they will win this game, but I do think they could keep it close. If Duke starts really fast, I could see a blowout for Duke. I think we’ll see just how good Duke really is after this game. If they win easy, watch out!

Analysis: Both teams have high-scoring offenses, but tournament games often see tighter defenses, and I really liked how Kentucky played defensively in the first round. The total set at 170.0 is notably high, and I expect a more controlled pace, plus I don’t think IL will shoot like crazy like they did last game. I know Kentucky has a crazy good offense, but I think they might be better served playing more controlled and limiting IL on the rebounds. This is a really tough game to call — one of these teams is going to come out and set the tone early, and I think that will be the team that takes it. I’m going Kentucky.

Analysis: Saint Mary's boasts one of the nation's top defenses, allowing just 60.5 points per game. Their ability to control the game's tempo could frustrate Alabama's high-octane offense, keeping the contest within the spread. Usually when we see these types of contrasting styles, the disciplined team can perform well. The question is whether or not Saint Mary’s can hang with Alabama’s athleticism. St Mary’s shot horribly last game and managed a comeback win. They’re a high quality team and should not be underestimated. We saw how good Gonzaga has been and St Mary’s beat them twice this year. Bama will need to start a lot better in this game compared to last game.

Analysis: Colorado State has been resilient, often outperforming expectations, and they’ve been on a very hot run. Maryland has been a little up and down, making the 7.5-point spread a challenge to cover for them. Maybe I’m just being hopeful because I’d love to see the Rams keep going. When I really dig deep and analyze this game, I realize that CO State has nobody to stop the big men on Maryland. I’m afraid they might get down early and have no chance in this one.

Analysis: Iowa State's defense has been formidable, limiting opponents to an average of 63.8 points per game. Mississippi's offense may struggle against pressure. I don’t know what to make of either of these teams to be honest. It would be an easy Iowa State win if their top player was playing. Iowa State feels like the safer side overall. I don’t know how good or not good Ole Miss is… but I know Iowa State will show up and play defense.

Analysis: Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, with Michigan State averaging 78.5 points per game and New Mexico close behind. It could be a faster paced game. I just don’t have a strong read on either of these teams right now. I think New Mexico coming off a tough win against Marquette might be able to hang for a bit against MSU, but eventually MSU will grind them down.

Analysis: Oregon has been on a late-season surge, showcasing a balanced attack that’s pretty explosive. Arizona's inconsistency makes them vulnerable, and the Ducks have the momentum to not only cover but potentially win outright. Here’s the deal: I loved Arizona coming into this tournament and picked them to go far. That was until I saw Oregon play. Now, it was against Liberty, but it was just very impressive from the standpoint of being able to score in a lot of different ways. I’m not sure Arizona can shoot that well from beyond the arc to run away with this one. The value is definitely on the Oregon side given these teams feel to be both pretty even right now and both playing well.

Analysis: The Pelicans have not been great this season and dealing with a lot of injuries. Detroit was hot for awhile and should take care of business at home where they play very well. Cade should be able to get what we wants against this poor defense, but the Pistons need to lock down their perimeter defense to cover this.

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Analysis: The Cavaliers have been slightly struggling lately on this road trip. It’s hard to trust them right now as they’re slowly coming back down to earth. The Jazz are missing key contributors every other day it seems like. They lack the offensive firepower to challenge Cleveland, but the Jazz tend to cover big spreads at home.

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Analysis: The Celtics face uncertainty with Jaylen Brown ruled out due to a knee injury. Without Brown, Boston's offensive efficiency drops significantly, and Boston has several guys on the injury report. The Trail Blazers, playing at home, have been competitive against top teams, making them a live underdog in this matchup.​ I think it’s worth locking Boston in early in case several of these guys sit out.

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Analysis: The Heat have been inconsistent, especially with injuries affecting their lineup. It looks like Bam and Herro could be out for this one. The Hornets feel like a weird bet here on the road in a tight spread, but weirdness is where it’s at because it usually gets us paid.

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Analysis: The 76ers are dealing with multiple injuries, but the young core is fighting. How many times can I hit this Justin Edwards bet? We hit for +425 the other day on his over 20 points even (sign up for premium if you haven’t yet - jk jk - kinda). The Hawks, with Trae Young leading the league in assists (11.4 APG), have been really good at home. Given Philadelphia's depleted roster, Atlanta should cover but I’m also scared of the Philly youth just gunning against ATL.

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Analysis: The Spurs have been competing, thanks in part to rookie Stephon Castle's impressive playmaking abilities. The Raptors have Jakob Poeltl (rest) out, but I love the Raptors at home. They always seem to cover or win against similar competition. RJ Barrett and Barnes are playing and that’s good enough for me.

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Analysis: Nikola Jokic will still be out. Murray is probable. The Rockets young core is all back on the court together, with Amen Thompson and Jalen Green leading the charge, but Fred VV had a huge game last time out. This could be closer than the spread indicates. If the Nuggets can find some rhythm here, I also like the over. it’s now very tough to tell who will be scoring for the Rockets with so many options. Obviously, Jalen Green continues get up a high volume of shots but there are a lot of guys who can fill it up here.

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Analysis: Both teams enter this matchup on winning streaks. The Thunder have been dominant on both ends of the floor. The Clippers have found their rhythm lately, largely due to the stellar play of James Harden and the return of Kawhi Leonard. However, the Thunder's depth give them a slight edge in this contest. It will be a tight one.​

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