March Madness Round 2 – Friday, March 22
Yesterday was definitely more challenging than the day before. It was a grind to try to salvage some bets and make enough live hedges.
I’m feeling very good about today so let’s get some money!
Free Picks:
Texas A&M -2.5
Tennessee -5
UCLA/Tennesse Under 131.5
Full Matchup Breakdowns & Analysis for All Games [PREMIUM ONLY 🔒]
(12) McNeese vs. (4) Purdue
Line: Purdue -6.5 (-104) | McNeese +6.5 (-118)
O/U: 143.5 (O -106, U -114)
ML: Purdue -255 | McNeese +205
⏰ 12:10 PM ET
🔥 Pick: McNeese +6.5 (-118)
🔍 Why? McNeese has been one of the best ATS teams all season (covering 67% of the time). Purdue is pretty average, but the Cowboys can keep this within two possessions with their gritty defense and slow tempo. I think Purdue wins in a really tight game but I’ll take McNeese with the points.
I do not currently have money on this game and not planning to bet it.
(10) Arkansas vs. (2) St. John’s
Line: St. John’s -6.5 (-120) | Arkansas +6.5 (-102)
O/U: 144.5 (O -115, U -105)
ML: St. John’s -285 | Arkansas +230
⏰ 2:40 PM ET
🔥 Pick: Over 144.5 (-115)
🔍 Why? Two faster-paced teams with above-average offenses. Expect plenty of transition buckets and we saw St. John’s shooting well in addition to them hitting the glass hard.
I think it’s safe to include St. John’s as a ML in a parlay, but I’m staying away from the -6.5
(5) Michigan vs. (4) Texas A&M
Line: Texas A&M -2.5 (-112) | Michigan +2.5 (-108)
O/U: 141.5 (O -110, U -110)
ML: Texas A&M -142 | Michigan +118
⏰ 5:15 PM ET
🔥 Pick: Texas A&M -2.5
🔍 Why? The Wolverines are just surviving on luck at this point — luck of the draw (good 1st round matchup) and I don’t think they’re that great. I also don’t think Texas A&M is that good so both of these teams are getting a good draw here. Texas A&M will be crashing the boards like crazy, but Michigan has two 7-footers so it’ll be super interesting to see how that plays out. I think the main key to the game and the big advantage her is the A&M defensive pressure against Michigan’s below average guards.
I’m on A&M here.
(11) Drake vs. (3) Texas Tech
Line: Texas Tech -6.5 (-120) | Drake +6.5 (-102)
O/U: 126.5 (O -115, U -105)
ML: Texas Tech -310 | Drake +245
⏰ 6:10 PM ET
🔥 Pick: Drake +6.5
🔍 Why? Texas Tech just doesn’t seem to blow teams out this year. They did jack up a school record three-point attempts last game. It just feels like Drake could force them into their tempo the same way they did with Missouri, and if that happens, Drake has a real shot here. No doubt TT is the better team, but if they fall in love with taking quick or bad shots against a very good defensive team, they could get into trouble.
I’m on Drake but not big.
(9) Creighton vs. (1) Auburn
Line: Auburn -9.5 (-104) | Creighton +9.5 (-118)
O/U: 150.5 (O -110, U -110)
ML: Auburn -450 | Creighton +340
⏰ 7:10 PM ET
🔥 Pick: Creighton +9.5 (-118)
🔍 Why? Creighton has elite shooting and forces turnovers. They can make just enough threes to stay within 10, I think. They also have a big boy inside that can hang. Auburn looked like shit against Alabama State in the first round. They played very undisciplined and had poor shot selection. They’ll have to clean stuff up a lot to cover and win this one. I like Creighton with the points to keep it close and lose by 6-7 points.
I’m on this small.
(6) BYU vs. (3) Wisconsin
Line: Wisconsin -1.5 (-105) | BYU +1.5 (-115)
O/U: 154.5 (O -115, U -105)
ML: Wisconsin -115 | BYU -104
⏰ 7:45 PM ET
🔥 Pick: Wisconsin -1
🔍 Why? This is going to be the game of the day. Both teams have great offenses and can shoot from deep. Wisconsin it feels like has more room for error with guys who can score inside and out. BYU is going to be gunning a lot from deep. The key for BYU is to attack WI down low. I’m expecting a shoot out and I think Wisconsin just has the slightly more talented roster here to come away with a close win.
Only have it in a parlay so far.
(8) Gonzaga vs. (1) Houston
Line: Houston -5.5 (-102) | Gonzaga +5.5 (-120)
O/U: 139.5 (O -115, U -105)
ML: Houston -215 | Gonzaga +176
⏰ 8:40 PM ET
🔥 Pick: Houston -5.5
🔍 Why? Houston plays slow, and Gonzaga’s size helps keep it close. However, Houston has been so consistent all year and I just think of all the teams, this is a very tough draw for Gonzaga. It could be a tight game throughout, but overall Houston just has an incredible defense and is very sound in all areas of the game. Gonzaga did look good round one and an upset would not shock me, but I’m going with Houston here.
Small bet on Houston -5 and ML in a parlay.
(7) UCLA vs. (2) Tennessee
Line: Tennessee -5.5 (-105) | UCLA +5.5 (-115)
O/U: 131.5 (O -115, U -105)
ML: Tennessee -225 | UCLA +184
⏰ 9:40 PM ET
🔥 Pick: Tennesse -5 / Under 131.5
🔍 Why? Two defensive-minded teams that play at a snail’s pace. This will be ugly and low-scoring. I don’t think UCLA is that good, so I expect Tennessee to take this one. Both teams play very good defense. I’ll do a small parlay on the Under with Tenn to win on the ML.
I’m on Tennessee pretty heavy at -5 and -4.5
NBA Best Picks & Analysis Today - Saturday, 3/22
Brooklyn Nets vs. Indiana Pacers
Spread: Nets+9 (-112) | Pacers -9 (-108)
Total: 220.5 (O -110, U -110)
Moneyline: Nets -370 | Pacers +295
Time: 5:10 PM ET
Analysis: Both teams have shown inconsistencies recently. The Pacers are up and down lately. The Nets have struggled all year but they’re pretty good at covering larger spreads. We just hit this bet recently, so let’s give it another shot.
Premium Picks:
Nets +10 - just moved to 10 this morning.
Player Prop: Ziaire Williams - Over 11.5 Points
Analysis: High minutes, covering often lately and getting looks. He is a GTD so keep that in mind.
Golden State Warriors vs. Atlanta Hawks
Spread: Warriors -3 (-108) | Hawks +3 (-112)
Total: 230.5 (O -110, U -110)
Moneyline: Warriors -148 | Hawks +126
Time: 7:10 PM ET
Analysis: With Stephen Curry sidelined due to a pelvic injury, the Warriors' offensive dynamics shift significantly. The Hawks, playing at home, have been strong against teams missing key players, and overall they’re just much better at home. Taking the points with Atlanta offers value.
Premium Picks:
Hawks +3
Player Prop: Trae Young Under 24.5 Points
Analysis: I think Young will distribute the ball well but the Warriors will key in on him in terms of scoring.
Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Spread: Knicks -15.5 (-108) | Wizards +15.5 (-112)
Total: 221.5 (O -110, U -110)
Moneyline: Knicks -1200 | Wizards +750
Time: 8:10 PM ET
Analysis: Covering large spreads has been challenging for the Knicks, especially with Jalen Brunson's recent injury. The Wizards, while underdogs, have kept games competitive and can stay within this range I think. The Knicks are really struggling right now.
Premium Picks:
Wizards +15.5
Player Prop: OG Anunoby - Over 19.5 Points
Analysis: Really good value from a shot volume perspective and always high minutes.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Sacramento Kings
Spread: Bucks -1 (-108) | Kings +1 (-112)
Total: 228.5 (O -110, U -110)
Moneyline: Bucks -112 | Kings -104
Time: 10:10 PM ET
Analysis: The Bucks have been pretty solid recently, but they do struggle on the road so we have to be careful here. The Kings, while up and down lately, might struggle to contain the Bucks defensively. I like the Bucks here, but I think we might be able to find some better value if the Kings start fast.
Premium Picks:
Bucks +4-5 live bet
Player Prop: Zach Lavine - Over 21.5 Points
Analysis: Takes a pretty high volume of shots and decent matchup against the Bucks weak perimeter defense at home.
Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Spread: Lakers -10.5 (-106) | Bulls +10.5 (-114)
Total: 233.5 (O -110, U -110)
Moneyline: Lakers -460 | Bulls +360
Time: 10:40 PM ET
Analysis: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We have been hitting the Bulls over and over lately. I love them in this spot with 10 points, even though the Lakers are tough at home. The Lakers are still dealing with multiple injuries, including Luka Doncic's recent ankle sprain. He should play but the Bulls are hot with White and Giddey right now..
Premium Picks:
Bulls +10.5 - moved to +9.5 but I locked this in last night.
Player Prop: Josh Giddey - Over 18.5 Points
Analysis: Consistently covering. I don’t get why they do not raise his line. Also, Coby White at 22.5 is great value.