🕒 12:00 PM ET @ Charles Koch Arena, Wichita, KS
💰 Moneyline: Memphis -280 / Wichita State +230 | Total: 151.5 (-105 over / -115 under)
Memphis has dominated this matchup, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings, including a comfortable win earlier this season. Their elite three-point shooting and second-half scoring make them a strong bet to cover, especially against a Wichita State squad that struggles offensively.
Key betting trends:
Memphis: 12-13 ATS overall, 8-1 SU in last nine games.
Wichita State: 8-13-2 ATS, 4-6 ATS in last 10 games.
Head-to-Head: Memphis has won 9 of the last 10 matchups, including a 61-53 win earlier this season.
Matchup analysis
Memphis Tigers
Record: 21-4, 12-13 ATS
✅ Elite three-point shooting (3rd in NCAA at 40.1%)
✅ Strong second-half team (12th in NCAA in 2H PPG)
✅ High free throw rate (26th in FTA/FGA)
✅ Strong defensive rebounding (42nd in opponent DR%)
✅ Forces turnovers (36th in opponent TOs per game)
❌ Turnover-prone (332nd in TOs per game)
❌ Struggles defending offensive rebounds (316th in opponent OR%)
❌ Weak against physical bigs (average height disadvantage in AAC matchups)
Key injuries: None reported.
Wichita State Shockers
Record: 14-10, 8-13-2 ATS
✅ Strong rebounding (39th in total rebounds per game)
✅ Solid defensive presence inside (57th in opponent OR%)
✅ Strong free throw defense (2nd in opponent FT%)
✅ Strong transition defense (top 50 in fast-break points allowed)
✅ Competitive at home (9-4 SU)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (329th in NCAA)
❌ Low assist rate (312th in AST/FGM)
❌ Inconsistent offense (scored under 65 in 4 of last 7 games)
Key injuries: J. Hill (Questionable - Undisclosed), T. Williams (Out - Redshirt), Z. Meeks (Out - Knee).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Memphis 79 - Wichita State 71
Outcome: Memphis covers the spread | Key factors: Memphis’ three-point shooting, Wichita State’s offensive inconsistency, and rebounding battles.
Spread pick | Memphis -6.5 (-115) - Reasoning: Memphis has won 9 of its last 10 matchups against Wichita State, and their offensive efficiency should help them cover. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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