🕒 8:00 PM ET @ State Farm Center, Champaign, IL
💰 Moneyline: Michigan State -125 / Illinois +105 | Total: 137.5 (-110 over / -110 under)
Key betting trends:
Michigan State: 14-9-1 ATS overall, 3-2-1 ATS on the road.
Illinois: 12-13 ATS overall, 8-6 ATS at home.
Head-to-Head: Home team has won the last four meetings in this rivalry.
Matchup analysis
Michigan State Spartans
Record: 19-5, 14-9-1 ATS
✅ Strong rebounding team (8th in total rebounds per game)
✅ Elite free throw shooting (81.0%, 3rd in NCAA)
✅ Solid defensive efficiency (39.9% opponent FG%, 19th in NCAA)
❌ Poor three-point shooting (28.8%, 354th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles against size inside (Illinois ranks 5th in two-point defense)
Key injuries: Carson Walton (out - redshirt).
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 17-8, 12-13 ATS
✅ Elite rebounding (1st in total rebounds per game)
✅ Strong inside presence (57.1% two-point shooting, 19th in NCAA)
✅ Stifling perimeter defense (31.1% opponent 3PT%, 46th in NCAA)
❌ Inconsistent from deep (31.6% 3PT%, 289th in NCAA)
❌ Turnover issues (11.9 per game, 188th in NCAA)
Key injuries: Tomislav Ivisic (questionable - ankle), Ty Rodgers (out - redshirt), Tyrese White (probable - illness).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Illinois 70 - Michigan State 66
Outcome: Illinois covers the spread | Key factors: Illinois’ rebounding advantage, Michigan State’s road struggles, and potential impact of Ivisic’s return.
Spread pick | Illinois +1.5 (-110) - Reasoning: Illinois has covered in 61.5% of home games as a favorite and their inside scoring should give them the edge. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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