🕒 1:00 PM ET @ Schottenstein Center, Columbus, OH
💰 Moneyline: Ohio State -140 / Michigan +120 | Total: 150.5 (-115 over / -105 under)
Michigan rolls into Columbus on a five-game win streak, and they tend to keep things close. With Ohio State’s high foul rate, the Wolverines should get plenty of chances at the line. We like Michigan to cover as road underdogs in a tight matchup.
Key betting trends:
Michigan: 11-13 ATS overall, 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
Ohio State: 15-10 ATS overall, 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Head-to-Head: The series is tied 5-5 ATS in the last 10 meetings, with the under hitting in six of those matchups.
Matchup analysis
Michigan Wolverines
Record: 19-5, 11-13 ATS
✅ Efficient scoring (49.1% FG, 10th in NCAA)
✅ Strong rebounding (38.0 RPG, 38th in NCAA)
✅ Elite shooting efficiency (1.194, 6th in NCAA)
✅ Solid defense inside (46.5% opponent 2PT%, 31st in NCAA)
✅ Strong first-half performances (40.6 PPG, 7th in NCAA)
❌ High turnover rate (14.5 per game, 345th in NCAA)
❌ Struggles in conference play ATS (4-9 ATS)
Key injuries: None reported.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record: 15-10, 15-10 ATS
✅ Strong three-point shooting (38.4%, 17th in NCAA)
✅ Stout perimeter defense (29.2% opponent 3PT%, 12th in NCAA)
✅ Solid scoring depth (four players averaging 12+ PPG)
✅ Strong home-court advantage (10-4 ATS as a home favorite)
✅ Efficient ball control (11.0 turnovers per game, 92nd in NCAA)
❌ High foul rate (19.8 per game, 347th in NCAA)
❌ Below-average rebounding (34.8 RPG, 182nd in NCAA)
Key injuries: A. Parks (questionable - undisclosed), M. Johnson (out - personal), T. Chatman (out - knee).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Ohio State 77 - Michigan 75
Outcome: Michigan covers the spread | Key factors: Wolverines’ inside presence, Ohio State’s perimeter shooting, and Michigan’s tendency to keep games close.
Spread pick | Michigan +2.5 (-105) - Reasoning: Michigan has won five straight and plays well in tight games. Ohio State’s high foul rate could lead to free points for Michigan late. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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