🕒 6:00 PM ET @ The Pavilion, Oxford, MS
💰 Moneyline: Ole Miss -200 / Mississippi State +170 | Total: 146.5 (-110 over / -110 under)
Key betting trends:
Mississippi State: 10-14 ATS, 1-8 ATS in last nine games.
Ole Miss: 14-10-1 ATS, 8-7 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 or more.
Head-to-Head: Mississippi State won the last matchup 84-81 in OT, but Ole Miss is 10-3 at home.
Matchup analysis
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record: 17-7, 10-14 ATS
✅ Strong rebounding (29th in total rebounds per game)
✅ Tough interior defense (90th in opponent two-point %)
✅ Forces turnovers (67th in opponent turnover rate)
❌ Struggles from three (283rd in 3PT%)
❌ Poor free throw shooting (309th in FT%)
Key injuries: Kanye Clary (out - leg).
Ole Miss Rebels
Record: 19-6, 14-10-1 ATS
✅ Elite ball security (1st in turnovers per game)
✅ Efficient shooting (91st in 3PT%, 104th in shooting efficiency)
✅ Strong perimeter defense (57th in opponent 3PT%)
❌ Weak rebounding (239th in total rebounds per game)
Key injuries: Matthew Murrell (probable - undisclosed).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Ole Miss 78 - Mississippi State 72
Outcome: Ole Miss covers | Key factors: Turnover battle, three-point shooting efficiency, home-court advantage.
Spread pick | Ole Miss -4.5 (-110) - Reasoning: The Rebels are 8-4 in conference play and have won three straight. Mississippi State’s struggles from deep and at the free throw line will be costly. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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