1. Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+105) vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Casey Mize vs Bailey Falter creates a clear mismatch. Mize has been excellent since returning from Tommy John surgery, posting a strong performance in recent starts. Meanwhile, Bailey Falter's 3.36 ERA masks deeper issues - his estimators suggest an ERA over 4.50.
The Tigers' offense ranks 5th in slugging while Pittsburgh sits 29th, having scored minimal runs in their recent series. With the Pirates dropping 11 of their last 15 games, this profiles as a potential blowout. The run line offers tremendous value at plus money.
2. Philadelphia Phillies ML (-188) vs Miami Marlins
Jesus Luzardo vs Cal Quantrill is the day's biggest pitching advantage. Luzardo brings his dominant left-handed arsenal against a Marlins team that struggles with southpaws. Quantrill's 0.5% roster percentage in fantasy leagues tells you everything about his current form.
The Phillies are heating up as one of MLB's best teams, while Miami continues to struggle offensively. At -188, the juice is worth it for what should be a straightforward victory.