Both defenses are top-5 in points allowed (KC #5, JAX #4). Red-zone: KC def #9, JAX def #4 → drives stall into FGs.

Jacksonville’s run game vs. KC’s run D is the swing matchup: JAX rush 5.0 YPC (#5) and 144 YPG (#4); KC allows 4.9 YPC (#27). That supports clock control and shorter game.

Explosives capped: JAX pass D is smothering (Opp Comp% 59.6% #6, Opp YPA 6.3 #6) and they’re #2 in INT rate; KC pass D is top-10 in yards allowed. Is this defense legit or have they just faced bad competition so far?

Tempo/possession: JAX TOP% 53.3% (#5), balanced run rate 43.9%; KC is more pass-leaning but middling in yards/play and red-zone TD rate (57% #20).

QB edge = KC, but Mahomes’ efficiency this year is modest (Comp% 61.3%, YPA 6.6) and JAX is #1 in takeaways (3.3/g). That nudges toward a tighter, field-goal script.