🏀NBA Best Picks Today - Monday, 3/24

Good morning, everyone! What a crazy weekend that was. Lots ups and downs. Looking across the industry and the people that I know and follow, everyone had a pretty rough betting weekend overall. I was able to salvage a few things with live bet hedges and a huge bet on Alabama -3 first half that I added to the Discord. Win or lose, it’s always onto the next day. It’s about consistency over time, and that is why we make smart bets vs. tons of parlays — we stay alive to hit the big opportunities. Let’s get into it!

I already locked in Florida -6 and I think I like Kentucky at the +4.5. To me, Kentucky is playing solid defense right now, and that should be a tight game so I like having the points there. Maryland is lucky to be alive — I think FL steps up this next game after a scare against a tough UCONN team.

I think I like Arizona at +9. Duke is looking like the best team right now, but Arizona did a lot of little things right, including making FTs, hitting big shots, and being physical down low. That’s a lot of points.

I was impressed with Alabama vs. St Mary’s. I think BYU has a shot in an uptempo game if Alabama decides to slack off on defense.

I’m leaning towards liking Ole Miss because I feel like MSU just keeps getting by in grinding games and if Ole Miss opens up a big enough lead it will be over.

I’ll take Michigan +8 even though I do not think they’re that good. I also don’t love Auburn so I think Michigan has proven they can hang and fight. I assume they will not get blown out. Houston and Purdue is tough to call. I am leaning towards Houston.

Of course, I may change my mind on several of these, but not Florida -6!

Analysis: The Lakers have the squad back and are ready to make a run now. The Magic, with a 32-38 record, have struggled against top-tier teams, and their offense, averaging 104.6 points per game, may find it challenging to keep pace with the Lakers' firepower.​ The Lakers got destroyed by the Bulls at home so it’ll be interesting to see if they can find the right pace to control the game against the Magic in a different style of game. I think they will do alright here.

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Analysis: The Timberwolves face uncertainty with Anthony Edwards listed as questionable due to right thumb injury. Without Edwards, Minnesota's offense, averaging 113.4 points per game, could struggle. The Pacers, led by Tyrese Haliburton's 11.4 assists per game, have been efficient offensively and boast a strong home record.​ I like the Pacers at home here with that potential lack of scoring on the Minnesota side.

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Analysis: The Raptors have struggled defensively, allowing 115.8 points per game. The Wizards, despite a disappointing season, have shown offensive flashes, averaging 108.8 points per game. This matchup could be a high-scoring affair, with both defenses having vulnerabilities, but it’s hard to trust either team. I have zero idea who will win this game. I would lean Raptors given they just got destroyed by the Spurs at home.

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Analysis: The Mavericks are without Anthony Davis still. Brooklyn's home-court advantage feels like it’s the better side. I’ll probably stay way because I love betting on the Nets when they are bigger underdogs vs. a favorite.​

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Analysis: The 76ers and Pelicans are two bad teams that can occasionally show up to score some points. I don’t have a great read on this one. New Orleans' home-court advantage should give them the nod here over Philly. If Zion wants to, he could dominate this game, but that remains to be seen!​ After hitting Justin Edwards for four straight games — I think it is time to lay off him here.

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Analysis:
The Bulls are on fire, especially if you’re a gambler, because they’re covering nonstop. Jokic is “unlikely” to play in this game. Denver has a pretty good home court advantage here so I think I will back off the Bulls and just see how this game plays out early on. Giddey and Coby White are as hot as any two players in the league right now so it’s hard to not back these guys in a great matchup.

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Analysis: The Bucks are playing well lately, but will be without key players Damian Lillard (calf), Bobby Portis Jr. (suspension), and Jericho Sims (thumb). Giannis Antetokounmpo is carrying the team and there are a few key contributors off the bench to keep an eye on (Porter Jr). The Suns are also on a two-game win streak and are 3-0 during their current homestand. I feel like the Bucks have the better supporting cast here and will grind out a win.

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Analysis: The Celtics, with a 52-19 record, are on a five-game win streak and have been dominant on the road even with injuries. Jayson Tatum leads the team with 30.2 points per game. The Kings are fighting for playoff positioning but have lost two consecutive games. Boston's defense and recent form give them the edge in this contest.​ It could actually be a higher scoring game. I like Porzingis being able to take advantage of a smaller defender here and shoot over the top.

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