Game 1 — Bills (4-1) @ Falcons (2-2)
Line: BUF -3.5 (-115) | ATL +3.5 (-105) Total: 50 ML: BUF -200 / ATL +170
Team snapshot
Bills: #1 overall PFF Power Rank (Off #2 | Def #15)
Falcons: #18 overall (Off #22 | Def #11)
QB edge: Allen (PFF 86.3, EPA / pass 0.30) ≫ Penix (61.1, 0.04)
SOS: BUF 31st (easy slate) | ATL 14th
Key trends / context
Bills rank #2 in offense & #3 in scoring (30.6 PPG). Last week’s sloppy L vs NE was turnover-driven.
Falcons coming off a bye, balanced attack (44.7 % run) but average efficiency (-0.08 EPA / run).
ATL missing WR Darnell Mooney; CB Terrell limited → bad timing vs Josh Allen deep shots.
Bettor splits: Bills 76 % tickets / 56 % money on spread; Over 67 %.
Model & market
PFF proj BUF -4.1 (-4 market) → fair line but Buffalo favored in every efficiency metric.
EPA gap ( +0.37 per pass ) is massive.
Game 2 — Bears (2-2) @ Commanders (3-2)
Line: CHI +5 (-120) | WAS -5 (EVEN) Total: 49.5 ML: CHI +195 / WAS -235
Team snapshot
Bears: #19 overall (Off #20 | Def #20) — Caleb Williams PFF 75.0 | EPA pass 0.07
Commanders: #7 overall (Off #7 | Def #22) — Daniels 78.5 | EPA pass 0.13
Rush offense: WAS #1 in NFL (156 ypg) vs CHI rush D #31 (165 ypg allowed).
Injuries: McLaurin OUT (quad), Deebo Samuel Q — expected limited snaps if active.
Matchup notes
Bears’ defense yields 29.3 PPG (29th); Commanders score 26.8 PPG (9th).
Daniels healthy again (4:0 TD:INT). With extra mobility, expect play-action success vs soft front.
Washington is 2-0 at home allowing just 15 PPG combined.
Bettor splits: WAS 83 % money / 87 % tickets; Under 62 %.