I’m prepping a full deep dive into the NFL playoffs for tomorrow and I’ll keep dropping NBA analysis.
People, just keep in mind that I drop several suggested picks for NBA games based on the research, data, and matchup analysis that I do every day. This does not mean you should go out and bet every single thing that I suggest — I don’t even do that. It’s ideas and thoughts that help you paint a picture to make smarter and better bets.
Tik Tok Ban Incoming? Maybe, maybe not…
With the Tik Tok ban possibly coming, I’d love to stay in touch and will be going live more often either way. I’m not quite sure which platform I will focus on yet, but it will be one of the following… I’m leaning towards YouTube we’ll see.
Here’s where you can follow me:
NBA Picks for Today 1/16
Here are my 7 favorite picks for today and some honorable mentions.
Favorite NBA Picks Today
1. Cade Cunningham Over 8.5 Assists (-115)
Reason: Cunningham has been the Pistons' primary playmaker, averaging over 10 assists in 4 of his last 6 games. Against a Pacers team missing key players and ranking 14th in opponent assists per game, this is a highly favorable spot.
Confidence Level: High
2. Suns -11.5 (-110)
Reason: The Wizards have the league’s worst defense (30th in efficiency) and are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. Phoenix’s offensive firepower, led by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, should dominate this overmatched opponent.
Confidence Level: High
3. Jalen Green Over 27.5 Points (-110)
Reason: Green has been on a tear, scoring 27+ in six consecutive games. He faces a Kings defense ranked 26th in opponent three-point percentage, providing an opportunity to continue his scoring streak.
Confidence Level: High
4. Cavaliers +1.5 (-110)
Reason: Cleveland is 14-3 on the road and 11-0 against Western Conference teams this season. Their size advantage with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley gives them a significant edge against the Thunder’s depleted frontcourt.
Confidence Level: Medium-High
5. Norman Powell Over 22.5 Points (-110)
Reason: Powell has scored 25+ in three of his last four games. Facing the Trail Blazers’ porous defense (116.8 PPG allowed), he has an excellent chance to surpass this line.
Confidence Level: Medium-High
6. Rockets +3.5 (-105)
Reason: Houston has covered the spread in seven straight road games following a road win. Their elite rebounding and strong defensive metrics make them a solid underdog play against the Kings.
Confidence Level: Medium-High
7. Jarrett Allen Over 12.5 Rebounds (+120)
Reason: Allen faces a Thunder team missing key frontcourt players. He grabbed 11 rebounds in their last matchup and is averaging 10.7 RPG in January, making this an excellent value prop.
Confidence Level: Medium
Honorable Mentions
Devin Booker Over 7.5 Assists (-110): Booker is thriving as the Suns' playmaker, with 8.1 APG over his last 10 games.
Clippers -7.0 (-105): Their #2 defensive efficiency over the last 10 games and recent blowout win over Brooklyn support this play.
Pacers vs. Pistons Full Betting and Matchup Analysis
Game Overview
Date/Time: 1/16/25, 7:00 PM ET
Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Spread: Pistons -3.0 (-115), Pacers +3.0 (-105)
Total: O/U 228.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Pistons -145, Pacers +125
The Indiana Pacers, likely without Tyrese Haliburton (questionable, groin), face the surging Detroit Pistons, led by Cade Cunningham, who are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. The Pistons’ defense has significantly improved, ranking 8th in efficiency over the past 10 games. Indiana, while strong offensively (9th in offensive efficiency), has struggled defensively, ranking 22nd in points allowed per game.
Key Insights and Matchups
Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham's Dominance:
Cunningham is averaging 24.5 PPG, 9.4 APG, and 6.6 RPG.
He has elevated Detroit's three-point shooting and playmaking, making them dangerous offensively.
Improved Defense:
Pistons’ defense ranks 8th in efficiency over the last 10 games, allowing just 107.8 points per 100 possessions.
They excel at defending fast breaks (18th) and points in the paint (7th).
Home-Court Advantage:
Detroit’s recent form at home has been impressive, winning seven of their last eight games.
Indiana Pacers
Offensive Efficiency:
Indiana ranks 9th in offensive efficiency, scoring 115.3 PPG (11th).
They boast a 37.3% three-point percentage (8th), but Haliburton’s absence could significantly hinder their offensive flow.
Defensive Struggles:
The Pacers rank 22nd in points allowed per game and struggle with interior defense, allowing 50.0 points in the paint (26th).
Key Injuries:
Tyrese Haliburton and Aaron Nesmith are questionable. Bennedict Mathurin is suspended, further limiting the team’s depth.
Player Prop Bets
Cade Cunningham Over 8.5 Assists (-115):
Cunningham is Detroit's primary playmaker, and Indiana ranks 14th in opponent assists per game. His recent form (10+ assists in 4 of the last 6 games) supports this line.
Pascal Siakam Over 4.5 Assists (-120):
With Haliburton potentially out, Siakam will take on more playmaking duties. He has hit this line in three of his last five games.
Cade Cunningham Over 6.5 Rebounds (-110):
Cunningham has averaged 7.6 RPG over the last 10 games. Indiana’s rebounding ranks 27th, providing an excellent opportunity for him to clear this mark.
Spread and Total Picks
Spread: Pistons -3.0 (-115)
Detroit has been in excellent form, winning 7 of their last 8 games. The Pacers’ injuries and lack of defensive consistency make the Pistons a strong play to cover the small spread.
Total: Under 228.0 (-110)
Detroit’s defense has been top-10 efficient in the last 10 games, and the Pacers will struggle offensively without Haliburton and Mathurin. Expect a slower-paced game with fewer scoring opportunities.
Predicted Outcome
Final Score: Detroit Pistons 114, Indiana Pacers 107
Bet Recommendations:
Spread: Pistons -3.0
Total: Under 228.0
Player Props:
Cade Cunningham Over 8.5 Assists
Pascal Siakam Over 4.5 Assists
Cade Cunningham Over 6.5 Rebounds
The Pistons’ improved defense and balanced scoring led by Cunningham should lead them to a comfortable victory against a shorthanded Pacers team.
Suns vs. Wizards Full Betting and Matchup Analysis
Game Overview
Date/Time: 1/16/25, 7:00 PM ET
Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
Spread: Suns -11.5 (-110), Wizards +11.5 (-110)
Total: O/U 231.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Suns -700, Wizards +475
The Phoenix Suns (19-20) head to Washington to face the Wizards (6-32) in a non-conference matchup. The Suns are struggling to find consistency and come into this game following a loss to Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Wizards have the league’s worst record and are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak. Both teams have struggled against the spread, but Washington’s last-ranked defense creates a favorable opportunity for Phoenix to rebound.
Key Insights and Matchups
Phoenix Suns
Star Power and Efficiency:
Kevin Durant: 27.2 PPG (5th in the NBA), 6.4 RPG, and 4.2 APG. Durant has cleared 30+ points in 3 of his last 5 games.
Devin Booker: Averaging 25.2 PPG and 6.9 APG. Booker has hit 30+ points in his last three games and is thriving as the team's primary playmaker.
Defensive and Rebounding Concerns:
Phoenix ranks 19th in points allowed per game (113.9) and struggles on the glass, sitting 26th in total rebounds per game (50.3).
Pace and Scoring:
Despite ranking 28th in possessions per game, the Suns’ offensive efficiency (14th in PPG and 6th in 3PT%) makes them a formidable scoring unit against a porous Wizards defense.
Washington Wizards
Defensive Woes:
Ranked 30th in defensive efficiency, allowing 122.6 PPG and struggling to defend both the perimeter and the paint. Opponents are shooting 36.4% from beyond the arc (20th) and 56.1% on two-point attempts (25th).
Rebuilding Around Youth:
Jordan Poole: Leading scorer with 21.5 PPG on 40.4% from three.
Kyle Kuzma: Averaging 14.5 PPG, though his production has been inconsistent. Kuzma has scored fewer than 10 points in 2 of his last 3 games.
Scoring Limitations:
Washington ranks 25th in points per game (108.3) and 29th in FG% (44.2%). They’ve failed to surpass 110 points in 4 of their last 5 games.
Player Prop Bets
Devin Booker Over 7.5 Assists (-110)
Booker has assumed a larger playmaking role, averaging 8.1 APG over his last 10 games. Against the Wizards’ 27th-ranked assist defense, this line is achievable.
Tyus Jones Over 5.5 Assists (-115)
Jones is averaging 6.0 APG and will have increased opportunities against a Suns team ranked 19th in opponent assists per game.
Kevin Durant Over 28.5 Points (-115)
Durant faces the league’s worst defense. He has scored 30+ points in 3 of his last 5 games and should dominate against the Wizards’ weak interior.
Spread and Total Picks
Spread: Suns -11.5 (-110)
The Wizards are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. With the league’s worst defense and an inability to score consistently, they are unlikely to cover against a Suns team motivated to rebound from their recent loss.
Total: Under 231.5 (-110)
The Wizards struggle offensively, ranking 25th in scoring and shooting efficiency. Phoenix’s slower pace (28th in possessions per game) also supports a lower-scoring outcome.
Predicted Outcome
Final Score: Phoenix Suns 120, Washington Wizards 104
Bet Recommendations:
Spread: Suns -11.5
Total: Under 231.5
Player Props:
Devin Booker Over 7.5 Assists
Tyus Jones Over 5.5 Assists
Kevin Durant Over 28.5 Points
Phoenix’s offensive firepower, combined with Washington’s defensive inefficiencies, makes this a comfortable spot for the Suns to cover and control the game.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Full Betting and Matchup Analysis
Game Overview
Date/Time: 1/16/25, 7:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Spread: Cavaliers +1.5 (-110), Thunder -1.5 (-110)
Total: O/U 232.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cavaliers EVEN, Thunder -120
This clash between the Cleveland Cavaliers (34-5) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (33-6) features two of the best teams in the NBA. The Cavaliers boast the league’s top offense, while the Thunder counter with the NBA’s best defense. These teams met last week in Cleveland, with the Cavs securing a 129-122 victory. The rematch in Oklahoma City presents another high-stakes battle between these elite squads.
Key Insights and Matchups
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dominant Offense:
Ranked #1 in effective field goal percentage (59.2%) and three-point shooting (39.9%).
They score 122.3 points per game (2nd in the NBA), led by Donovan Mitchell (23.1 PPG), Darius Garland (21 PPG), and Evan Mobley (19 PPG).
Rebounding Concerns:
Cleveland ranks 25th in total rebounds per game (50.6), an area where Oklahoma City has a slight edge.
Key Players:
Jarrett Allen: Averaging 14.1 PPG and 10.2 RPG. With the Thunder’s frontcourt depleted due to injuries, Allen is poised for another big performance.
Donovan Mitchell: Despite struggling in the last meeting, he remains a top scoring threat.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Elite Defense:
The Thunder lead the NBA in opponent points per game (103.2) and opponent effective field goal percentage (49.8%).
They excel in forcing turnovers, leading the league in opponent turnovers per game (18.6).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA):
SGA is averaging 31.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 6 APG. He’s scored 30+ points in 7 of his last 9 games and will look to dominate in this high-profile matchup.
Frontcourt Injuries:
The absence of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein leaves the Thunder vulnerable in the paint. Their small-ball lineup may struggle against Cleveland’s bigs.
Player Prop Bets
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points (-110)
SGA has averaged 32 PPG in January and scored 31 points in the last meeting against Cleveland. With the Cavs’ focus on perimeter defense, SGA’s efficiency inside should shine.
Jarrett Allen Over 12.5 Rebounds (+120)
Allen is set to dominate on the boards with Oklahoma City missing key frontcourt players. He grabbed 11 rebounds in their last matchup and is averaging 10.7 RPG in January.
Darius Garland Over 7.5 Assists (-115)
Garland is the team’s primary playmaker, averaging 6.7 APG this season. With Cleveland’s efficient shooting, he should clear this line comfortably.
Spread and Total Picks
Spread: Cavaliers +1.5 (-110)
Cleveland is 14-3 on the road and 11-0 against Western Conference teams this season. Their size advantage and depth give them the edge in this tight matchup.
Total: Under 232.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City’s defense (1st in opponent points per game) combined with Cleveland’s slower pace should result in a lower-scoring game compared to their last meeting.
Predicted Outcome
Final Score: Cleveland Cavaliers 115, Oklahoma City Thunder 110
Bet Recommendations:
Spread: Cavaliers +1.5
Total: Under 232.5
Player Props:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points
Jarrett Allen Over 12.5 Rebounds
Darius Garland Over 7.5 Assists
Cleveland’s balanced attack and size in the frontcourt should help them edge out a victory in a competitive, defensive-minded game.
Rockets vs. Kings Full Betting and Matchup Analysis
Game Overview
Date/Time: 1/16/25, 10:00 PM ET
Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Spread: Rockets +3.5 (-105), Kings -3.5 (-115)
Total: O/U 224.5 (-115/-105)
Moneyline: Rockets +140, Kings -165
The Houston Rockets (26-12) face the Sacramento Kings (20-20) in a Western Conference battle. The Kings will look to bounce back after a loss to Milwaukee, while the Rockets aim to continue their winning streak despite being on the second night of a back-to-back.
Key Insights and Matchups
Houston Rockets
Dominant Rebounding and Defense:
The Rockets lead the league in total rebounds per game (58.2) and offensive rebound percentage (31.1%).
They rank 4th in opponent points per game (107.4) and 2nd in opponent shooting efficiency (1.089).
Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün Leading Offense:
Green is averaging 27+ points over his last six games and scored 34 in their win against Denver.
Şengün provides consistent inside presence with 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists in the last game.
Fatigue Concerns:
Playing their second game in two nights after a road win in Denver could challenge the Rockets' endurance.
Sacramento Kings
Rest Advantage:
The Kings are coming off a day of rest and return home following a tough loss to Milwaukee.
Balanced Offense:
Sacramento ranks 8th in points per game (116.1) and has scored 120+ points in three of their last five games.
Domantas Sabonis (16 PPG, 10 RPG) and De’Aaron Fox (20 PPG, 11 APG last game) lead their offensive attack.
Defensive Weaknesses:
The Kings rank 19th in opponent effective FG% (54.6%) and have struggled to defend the three-point line (37.6%, 26th).
Player Prop Bets
Jalen Green Over 27.5 Points (-110)
Green has been on fire, scoring 27+ points in six straight games. He should continue his offensive dominance against a Kings defense that struggles against guards.
Domantas Sabonis Triple-Double (+300)
Sabonis is averaging near triple-double numbers and faces a Rockets team that allows high assist numbers in the paint.
Alperen Şengün Over 8.5 Rebounds (-115)
With the Rockets dominating on the boards, Şengün is a solid bet to clear this number.
Spread and Total Picks
Spread: Rockets +3.5 (-105)
The Rockets have covered the spread in 7 straight road games after a road win. Their strong defensive presence and rebounding could keep this game close despite the back-to-back.
Total: Over 224.5 (-115)
Both teams are averaging over 115 points in recent games, and the Kings’ struggles on defense make the over appealing.
Predicted Outcome
Final Score: Houston Rockets 118, Sacramento Kings 114
Bet Recommendations:
Spread: Rockets +3.5
Total: Over 224.5
Player Props:
Jalen Green Over 27.5 Points
Domantas Sabonis Triple-Double
Alperen Şengün Over 8.5 Rebounds
Despite the back-to-back, the Rockets’ recent form and defensive consistency should allow them to upset the Kings in a high-scoring game.
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Betting and Matchup Analysis
Game Overview
Date/Time: 1/16/25, 10:00 PM ET
Location: Moda Center, Portland, OR
Spread: Clippers -7.0 (-105), Trail Blazers +7.0 (-115)
Total: O/U 219.5 (-110/-110)
Moneyline: Clippers -270, Trail Blazers +220
The Los Angeles Clippers (24-16) take on the Portland Trail Blazers (15-25) in a matchup of teams with contrasting directions. The Clippers seek to build momentum after a dominant win over the Nets, while the Blazers aim to snap a three-game skid.
Key Insights and Matchups
Los Angeles Clippers
Defensive Efficiency:
Ranked #2 in defensive efficiency over the last 10 games, allowing only 108.1 points per game this season (3rd).
They excel at limiting opponent shooting efficiency, holding teams to an effective FG% of 53.1% (9th).
Offensive Stars:
Norman Powell has been red-hot, averaging 23.9 PPG on 39.2% shooting from beyond the arc.
James Harden is averaging 21.5 PPG and 8 APG, providing playmaking and scoring.
Road Struggles:
Despite a strong season overall, the Clippers have lost four consecutive road games.
Portland Trail Blazers
Offensive Inconsistencies:
The Blazers rank 24th in points per game (108.4) and are inefficient, with a 51.7% effective FG% (25th).
They struggle from deep, shooting just 34.1% from three (25th).
Defensive Weaknesses:
Portland allows 116.8 PPG (24th) and struggles to defend the three-point line (37.8%, 27th).
Young Core:
Anfernee Simons (18.7 PPG) and Shaedon Sharpe (18.4 PPG) are bright spots offensively.
Deandre Ayton provides rebounding and interior scoring but has lacked consistency in key moments.
Player Prop Bets
Norman Powell Over 22.5 Points (-110)
Powell has scored 25+ points in three of his last four games. He faces a Blazers defense that struggles to contain perimeter scorers.
Ivica Zubac Over 14.5 Rebounds (-115)
Zubac is averaging 16+ rebounds in three of his last five games and faces a Portland team that ranks 24th in defensive rebounding.
Anfernee Simons Over 23.5 Points (-110)
Simons is Portland's offensive focal point and has a favorable matchup against the Clippers' perimeter defense.
Spread and Total Picks
Spread: Clippers -7.0 (-105)
The Clippers' superior defense and star power should allow them to control this game. Their recent blowout win over Brooklyn showcases their ability to dominate weaker teams.
Total: Over 219.5 (-110)
The Blazers’ defensive struggles combined with the Clippers’ improved offensive efficiency suggest a high-scoring affair.
Predicted Outcome
Final Score: Los Angeles Clippers 116, Portland Trail Blazers 105
Bet Recommendations:
Spread: Clippers -7.0
Total: Over 219.5
Player Props:
Norman Powell Over 22.5 Points
Ivica Zubac Over 14.5 Rebounds
Anfernee Simons Over 23.5 Points
With the Clippers' dominant defense and offensive firepower, expect them to cover the spread and secure a comfortable win against a struggling Trail Blazers squad.
Final Thoughts
Excited to jump into the NFL games and do a deep dive tomorrow. Let’s stack decks tonight on NBA and find some big wins this weekend.
-Mike