🏀 NBA FINALS GAME 3: Thunder @ Pacers
After splitting the first two games in Oklahoma City, the series shifts to Indianapolis where the Pacers haven't hosted a Finals game in 25 years. The Thunder (-5.5) enter as road favorites with the total set at 228.5.
Key Line Movement: Sharp money pushed OKC from -4.5 to -5.5 despite only 54% of public bets on the Thunder. Classic reverse line movement indicator.
PICK: Pacers +5.5 (-105)
Notes:
Thunder are 0-7 ATS on the road this postseason
Haliburton averages 24.3 PPG at home vs 17.7 on road in playoffs
Pacers 0-4 record in Game 3s this postseason
Sharp money moved the line but public still backing Thunder
The Pacers showed championship mettle with their Game 1 comeback, and history suggests home teams with their backs against the wall perform well in pivotal Game 3s. Taking the points — it’s not an easy call, but over the long run this bet hits more than it doesn’t.
⚾ MLB SLATE: Top Value Plays for June 11
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1. Detroit Tigers ML (+112) @ Baltimore Casey Mize and the league-leading Tigers get no respect as road dogs. Detroit is 5-0 SU in their last 5 vs Baltimore, and sharp money has quietly backed them despite public Orioles bias.
2. Under 9 runs: Nationals @ Mets (-110) Weather conditions favor pitchers at Citi Field tonight. David Peterson's been excellent for NYM (2.90 ERA in 2024), and 8 of Baltimore's last 9 games have gone Under. Public loves Overs = fade opportunity.
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