🏀NBA Best Picks + 🏀NCAAB - Saturday, March 1st

So much action today, guys and girls. I don’t know where to start so let’s just get into it and make some damn money today! Forgive any typos — been hammering on this since 5am and late last night!

The Breakdown: The Charlotte Hornets have been not great this year and it’s getting worse. They've struggled to cover the spread in games where they're favored by 4 points or more. Ball is declining and beat up as the year goes on so there is not much spark for this team right now. He’s also questionable for this game. The Washington Wizards have had a tough season overall, but they've shown some resilience against the odds, covering the spread in 25 of their 58 games as underdogs.​ Both teams combine for an average of 213.5 points per game, which is a tad below the set total of 220.5. Given these stats, the Wizards catching 4 points seems enticing, but I’m staying away.​ Please don’t watch this game and you probably shouldn’t bet it on it either.

The Play: Wizards +4.0

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]:

The Breakdown: The Detroit Pistons finally got taken down at home by the Nuggets (called that one). This is a lot of points, but Detroit is really solid at home. The Nets have had a rocky season, especially on the road. Their defense has been solid in stretches, but they've struggled to find a consistent scoring threat. Given Detroit's momentum and home-court advantage, the spread makes sense but it’s still a little big for me.​ I would probably take the Nets at +11 because the Nets play hard and have been covering these larger spreads. I don’t think we’re sure how good the Pistons are yet, but as a first-time playoff team in awhile, we know they are not elite. 11 point spreads are for elite level teams. Cover or not, the Nets are the smarter pick. The Nets are also +7 in the first half, which may be more value than the +11 full game pick. Not playing any player bets here outside of Cunningham.

The Play: Nets +11

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

The Breakdown: The Memphis Grizzlies have been a force at home this season and I’ve been banking on them in just about every 1st quarter bet. It’s hard to really get a read on the Spurs night to night without Wemby — they just lack consistency and defense but can score sometimes like crazy.​ Memphis's defense has been average, and their offense is firing on all cylinders. The Spurs defense is pretty poor overall. I like the Grizzlies more in this spot even though they’re coming off less rest. My instinct is to lean to the under as well in this game.

The Play: Grizzlies -9.5

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

The Breakdown: The Houston Rockets have turned the Toyota Center into a fortress, with a 20-9 home record. The team is just loaded with young talent. The Sacramento Kings are not great on the road and have yet to crack the code against Houston this season, dropping both previous matchups.​ The Kings just don’t really play any defense and the Rockets can step up on defense and rebound very well. Malik Monk was playing great when Fox was on the Kings and has since gone downhill big time. Dillon Brooks always has to seem good value against a poor defense I like Houston to cover this spread.

The Play: Rockets -5.0

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

The Breakdown: The Bucks have faced challenges on the road this season. Will it continue or can they pull one off on the road and stay hot? The Mavs are tough at home, where they hold a 19-11 record, but a lot of that was done with their old lineup with Luka.​ With the Bucks' recent road woes and potential absences, the Mavericks covering the 4-point spread seems plausible.​ However, the Bucks are running pretty hot right now, and it’s hard to bet against the better team. Really tough one to call… I’ll take the Bucks if I can get better value on the live bet. I don’t see this being a high scoring game… Bucks aren’t great on the road and Dallas does not have the firepower right now.

The Play: Bucks — live bet if they start slow.

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

The Breakdown: The Golden State Warriors have had an up-and-down season, but they’re rounding into form with their new squad. The 76ers, without Joel Embiid (out for the season - bruised ego/knee), will lean on Tyrese Maxey to shoulder the load.​ While the Warriors are favored, their road inconsistencies paired with the Sixers' resilience suggest this game could be tighter than anticipated.​ It’s tough to take Philly when we all know they want to lose and keep that top 6 draft pick. I’m not in love with this number for Golden State on the road but I can’t take the other side. This spread is bouncing between 7.5 and 8 as of this morning. I’m probably avoiding that spread and playing for more of a low scoring game with GS on the road and defense traveling well. Another way to play this if you think the spread number is too big would be to play 76ers first half +5, assuming they’ll hang for a while and then get beat up as the game goes on.

The Play: Warriors ML + Under 227 (+140)

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

📍 #13 Clemson at Virginia (+7.0) ⏰ 9:00 AM ET

The Breakdown: Clemson has been on a tear, boasting a 15-2 conference record and riding a five-game winning streak. Their offense is clicking, averaging 82.6 points per game, making them a formidable force. On the other hand, Virginia has struggled this season, with a sub-.500 record in conference play. Their defense has been porous, and they've had trouble keeping up with high-octane offenses like Clemson's. Given the Tigers' momentum and the Cavaliers' defensive woes, Clemson covering the 7-point spread seems like the move.

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📍 #16 Maryland at Penn State (+5.5) ⏰ 9:00 AM ET

The Breakdown: Maryland has been solid this season. Their defense has been particularly stout, holding opponents to an average of 65 points per game. Penn State, meanwhile, has struggled offensively, averaging just 68 points per game. With Maryland's defensive prowess and Penn State's offensive struggles, the Terrapins should be able to cover the 5.5-point spread. Maryland is also a solid first half team so you might find some extra value there.

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📍 #6 Alabama at #5 Tennessee (-3.5) ⏰ 10:00 AM ET

The Breakdown: This is the marquee matchup of the day, featuring two top-10 teams. Alabama leads the nation in scoring offense, averaging 91.5 points per game, while Tennessee boasts one of the stingiest defenses, allowing just 57.8 points per game. It's a classic clash of styles. Given Tennessee's home-court advantage and defensive tenacity, they have a slight edge. However, Alabama's explosive offense will keep them in the game and if it’s tight, give me some points!

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📍 #10 Texas Tech at Kansas (-4.5) ⏰ 11:00 AM ET

The Breakdown: Texas Tech has been impressive this season, with a 21-7 record and an offense averaging 80.7 points per game. Kansas, traditionally a powerhouse, has had an uncharacteristically down year, recently falling out of the rankings for the first time since 2021. Their defense has been suspect, and they've struggled against ranked opponents. Given the Red Raiders' offensive firepower and the Jayhawks' defensive lapses, Texas Tech covering the spread is a reasonable expectation, but be careful of Kansas here. I’d probably stay away from this one overall.

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📍 Seton Hall at #7 St. John's (-21.5) ⏰ 11:15 AM ET

The Breakdown: St. John's has been dominant, with an offense that can light up the scoreboard (but that defense is crazy good!). Seton Hall, meanwhile, has struggled, particularly on the defensive end. However, a 21.5-point spread is substantial, and St. John's has occasionally taken their foot off the gas against lesser opponents. While the Red Storm should win comfortably, Seton Hall might do enough to cover the large spread. Given we have a lower total, I’m expecting this to be too many points for St John’s to cover.

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📍 LSU at #24 Mississippi State (-12.0) ⏰ 12:30 PM ET

The Breakdown: Mississippi State has been solid, more so on the offensive side of things. LSU has been inconsistent, struggling against top-tier competition. I’m feeling LSU for a cover and a potential upset here.

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📍 #1 Auburn at #17 Kentucky (+5.0) ⏰ 1:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: Auburn has been the class of college basketball this season, holding a 25-2 record and the unanimous No. 1 ranking. Their offense is potent, and their defense is suffocating. Kentucky has been good but not great, struggling against elite competition. Given Auburn's dominance, they should be able to cover the 5-point spread on the road.

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📍 #14 Missouri at Vanderbilt (+2.5) ⏰ 3:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: Missouri has been impressive with balanced attack on both ends of the floor. Vanderbilt, while competitive, has struggled against ranked opponents. Given the Tigers' consistency and the manageable spread, Missouri should cover here in a close one.

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📍 Pittsburgh at #19 Louisville (-10.5) ⏰ 3:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: Louisville has been solid and Pittsburgh has had a rough season, particularly on offense. Given the Cardinals' D and home-court advantage, they should cover this 10.5-point spread.

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📍 Florida State at #2 Duke (-23.0) ⏰ 4:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: Duke has been dominant and they don’t seem to have problems covering huge spreads against bad teams. Florida State has struggled big time, particularly on defense. While a 23-point spread is substantial, the Blue Devils have the firepower to cover it, especially at home.

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📍 #12 Texas A&M at #3 Florida (-9.5) ⏰ 5:30 PM ET

The Breakdown: Florida has been impressive, with a 24-3 record and a balanced attack. Texas A&M has been solid but has struggled against top-tier competition. This feels like a lot of points for the Gators in this matchup. Maybe you can catch some better value on a live bet, otherwise I would just avoid this one.

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Arizona has been solid this season, but they've struggled on the road, with a 5-6 record away from home. Their high-powered offense, which ranks top 15 in the nation in scoring, relies heavily on transition buckets and three-point shooting. However, Iowa State boasts one of the best home-court advantages in college basketball, sporting a 14-1 record at Hilton Coliseum. Iowa State plays a physical, defensive-minded game, holding opponents to under 65 points per game. If they can slow the tempo and force Arizona into half-court sets, the Cyclones will have a significant advantage. The key battle here will be Arizona’s transition offense vs. Iowa State’s disciplined half-court defense. Given Iowa State’s home dominance, they should control this game and cover the spread. Arizona will need to hit threes at a high clip to stay in it.

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Saint Mary’s continues to be one of the most underrated mid-major teams in the country, and their defense is elite. The Gaels allow just 59.2 PPG, ranking top five nationally in scoring defense. They slow the pace down and grind opponents into submission with their methodical offense and rebounding advantage.

Oregon State, meanwhile, has struggled in road games, posting a 2-8 record away from home. Their offense has been wildly inconsistent, failing to score over 65 points in five of their last eight games.

Saint Mary’s has covered big spreads against lesser competition all season, and their slow tempo should limit Oregon State's scoring chances. Expect the Gaels to control this one from start to finish. If Oregon State is in it early, you might be able to find some good value on the spread — I’d love to get St Mary’s around -6 or so.

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BYU has been one of the best home teams in the country, playing at an insane pace and averaging 85+ PPG at home. Their three-point shooting is elite, ranking top 10 in the country in three-point percentage, and their ball movement creates open looks constantly. West Virginia, on the other hand, has struggled on the road (4-8 away from home) and has been inconsistent offensively. Their defense has been hit-or-miss, and they lack the perimeter shooting to keep up with BYU’s scoring pace. West Virginia needs to slow the game down and win on the boards to have a shot at covering. However, if BYU gets hot from deep early, this could get ugly quickly. Given BYU’s home dominance and offensive efficiency, I expect them to pull away in the second half and cover. The over seems like a great play at 140.

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