Hey everyone,
This is your daily reminder to give the PREMIUM a shot! I feel like I’m super dialed into the NBA right now and I’ve recently turned about $450 into $8,900 the the past 4-5 days. We’re definitely winning a lot more than losing lately and we got March Madness coming up so if you pick a month, this is the best month to upgrade!
🏀 NBA Betting & Matchup Analysis – March 12, 2025
Charlotte Hornets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Game Overview
Venue: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Spread: Hawks -8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Hornets +275 | Hawks -350
Total (O/U): 233.5 (-110)
Key Betting Trends
Hawks are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Hawks are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hawks' last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 21 of Hawks' last 32 home games.
Matchup Breakdown
Charlotte Hornets (16-48)
Strengths:
Decent three-point shooting (35.9%).
Play at a fast tempo (top 10 in pace).
Weaknesses:
Defensive struggles (28th in defensive rating).
Turnover-prone offense (24th in TO margin).
Atlanta Hawks (31-34, 17-16 ATS at home)
Strengths:
Elite scoring (8th in PPG).
Strong rebounding (5th in total rebounds).
Weaknesses:
Defensive inconsistencies (21st in opponent PPG).
Inconsistent ATS record.
Spread Pick: Hawks -8.5 (-110)
Atlanta’s home dominance and offensive firepower should help them cover.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Total Points (O/U): Over 233.5 (-110)
The Hawks’ tendency for high-scoring games favors the over. We just have to hope the Hornets can keep up!
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Trae Young - Over 26.5 Points (-115) (7/10 Confidence)
LaMelo Ball - Under 25.5 Points (-108) (6/10 Confidence)
Parlay Play
Hawks ML (-350)
Over 233.5 (-110)
Trae Young Over 26.5 Points (-115)
Odds: +380 (Approximate)
Confidence Level: 6/10
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics
Game Overview
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Spread: Celtics -4.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder +145 | Celtics -170
Total (O/U): 228.0 (-110)
Key Betting Trends
Celtics are 30-35-0 ATS this season.
Thunder are 40-24-1 ATS this season.
The average total in Celtics’ games is 227.8, slightly lower than this matchup’s O/U.
Matchup Breakdown
Oklahoma City Thunder (53-12, 40-24-1 ATS)
Strengths:
Strong ATS performance.
Elite perimeter defense (top 5 in opponent 3PT%).
Weaknesses:
Rebounding struggles (bottom 10 in total rebounds).
Jalen Williams out this game.
Boston Celtics (47-18, 30-35 ATS)
Strengths:
Elite home-court record.
Balanced offensive and defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses:
Occasionally struggle against elite defenses.
Can go hot and cold shooting too many threes.
Spread Pick: Thunder +4.0 (-110)
OKC’s ATS strength makes them a live underdog. I might even take that +150 ML, but I am very aware Boston is good at home.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Total Points (O/U): Over 228.0 (-110)
Both teams rank top 10 in scoring efficiency.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Jayson Tatum - Over 27.5 Points (-112) (7/10 Confidence)
Chet Holmgren Over 25.5 PRA (-110) (6/10 Confidence)
Parlay Play
No parlay here - I feel like this game is unpredictable at the player level. So many good players and guys are a little banged up — we just don’t know who is going to take over this game.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors
Game Overview
Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Spread: Raptors -4.0 (-110)
Moneyline: 76ers +145 | Raptors -170
Total (O/U): 218.5 (-110)
Key Betting Trends
Raptors are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Raptors are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 3 of Raptors' last 5 games.
Matchup Breakdown
Barrett, Quickley, and Maxey are all out.
Philadelphia 76ers (22-41)
Strengths:
Not many this year with a depleted roster.
High free-throw rate.
Weaknesses:
Injuries affecting roster depth.
Not a great passing team, ranking 28th in assists.
Toronto Raptors (21-43, 17-12 ATS at home)
Strengths:
Defensive intensity at home.
Strong transition play.
Weaknesses:
Inconsistent perimeter shooting.
Dealing with lots of injuries lately.
Spread Pick: Raptors -4.0 (-110)
Toronto’s home defense should help them cover a game where both teams are really beat up. Going with Toronto because they always seem to cover close spreads at home.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Total Points (O/U): Over 218.5 (-110)
Recent trends favor the over.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Jakob Poetl Over 26.5 PRA (-110) (7/10 Confidence)
Parlay Play
Raptors ML (-170)
Over 218.5 (-110)
Odds: +220 (Approximate)
Confidence Level: 6/10
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs (8:00 PM ET)
Game Overview
Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Spread: Spurs -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Mavericks +200 | Spurs -240
Total (O/U): 237.5 (-110)
Key Betting Trends
Mavericks are 33-32-1 ATS this season.
Spurs are 27-36 ATS this season.
The Spurs' average points per game (113.7) is slightly lower than the Mavericks' points allowed (114.5).
Matchup Breakdown
Dallas Mavericks (33-33, 33-32-1 ATS)
Strengths:
Hard to find positives with so many key players out.
Weaknesses:
Poor defense (25th in defensive rating).
Inconsistent rebounding (21st in total rebounds).
San Antonio Spurs (26-37, 27-36 ATS)
Strengths:
Strong fastbreak scoring (top 10 in transition points).
Young, athletic core that plays at a high pace alongside old man Chris Paul.
Weaknesses:
Bottom 5 in three-point defense.
Struggles against teams with elite shot creators.
Spread Pick: No bet. I don’t trust either team and there are too many variables with so many guys out. Play the live bet only.
Total Points (O/U): Under 237.5 (-110)
Both teams' scoring averages suggest this total might be inflated and there’s a massive lack of scoring power on the court. This is the only bet I like for the entire game.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Sometimes you win by staying away :)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Miami Heat (5:00 PM ET)
Game Overview
Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Spread: Heat -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Clippers +105 | Heat -125
Total (O/U): 210.5 (-110)
Key Betting Trends
The Over 210.5 has hit in 16 of the last 20 Clippers games.
The Over 210.5 has hit in 14 of the last 20 Heat home games.
Clippers have lost their last four road games.
Heat are on a four-game losing streak.
Clippers have won 7 of the last 10 H2H matchups.
Matchup Breakdown
Los Angeles Clippers (35-30, 22-10 Home)
Strengths:
Efficient offense
Ivica Zubac dominant on the glass (11.7 RPG).
Weaknesses:
Defensive lapses lately (Allowing 113.2 PPG last 10 games).
Struggles closing out games on the road.
Miami Heat (29-35, 15-15 Home)
Strengths:
Solid defense (110.5 OPP PPG).
Bam Adebayo interior presence (23.3 PPG, 9.5 RPG).
Efficient free-throw shooting (81.7%).
Weaknesses:
Low-scoring offense (109.5 PPG last 10 games).
Struggles against elite playmakers.
Total Pick: Over 208 (-110)
Both teams have hit this total consistently and it just moved down to 208.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Spread Pick: Heat -2.5 (-110) or just go Heat ML -125
Miami has the defensive edge and home-court advantage where they play differently. Clippers struggling without Powel lately.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Bam Adebayo - Over 19.5 Points (-105) (7/10 Confidence)
Ivica Zubac - Over 2.5 Assists (+135) (6/10 Confidence)
James Harden - Over 25.5 Points (-123) (6/10 Confidence)
Tyler Herro - Over 21.5 Points (-120) (7/10 Confidence)
Parlay Play (it’s a big one!)
Over 210.5 (-110)
Heat ML (-125)
Bam Adebayo - Over 19.5 Points (-105) (7/10 Confidence)
Ivica Zubac - Over 2.5 Assists (+135) (6/10 Confidence)
James Harden - Over 25.5 Points (-123) (6/10 Confidence)
Tyler Herro - Over 21.5 Points (-120) (7/10 Confidence)
It’s a real long shot but we can toss a tiny bit on it.
Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies (7:00 PM ET)
Game Overview
Venue: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Spread: Grizzlies -12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Jazz +560 | Grizzlies -833
Total (O/U): 247.0 (-110)
Key Betting Trends
Jazz have covered +13.5 in 8 of their last 10 games.
Grizzlies have failed to cover -12.5 in their last 10 games.
The Under 247.5 has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Jazz have lost 13 straight road games.
Matchup Breakdown
Utah Jazz (15-50)
Strengths:
High rebounding rate (48.5 RPG last 10 games).
Competitive ATS record as larger underdogs.
Weaknesses:
Bottom 5 in defensive rating (119.8 OPP PPG).
Poor free-throw shooting (69.3%).
Memphis Grizzlies (41-24)
Strengths:
High-powered offense but Jackson JR. still out and Aldama still out.
Ja Morant’s elite playmaking and he’s starting to score more now.
Strong rebounding (47.4 RPG).
Weaknesses:
Inconsistent three-point defense.
Struggles covering large spreads due to giving up big scoring runs.
Spread Pick: Jazz +12.5 (-110)
Utah has kept recent games closer than expected.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Total Pick: Under 247.0 (-110)
Grizzlies games have trended under vs. large totals.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Ja Morant - Under 4.5 Rebounds (-125) (7/10 Confidence)
Jaylen Wells - Under 11.5 Points (-114) (6/10 Confidence)
Parlay Play
Jazz +12.5 (-110)
Under 247.0 (-110)
Ja Morant Under 4.5 Rebounds (-125)
Odds: +290 (Approximate)
Confidence Level: 6/10
Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets
Game Overview
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Spread: Rockets -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Suns +150 | Rockets -175
Total (O/U): 229.0 (-110)
Key Betting Trends
Suns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
Rockets are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Suns' last 10 games.
Rockets rank top 5 in rebounding this season.
Matchup Breakdown
Phoenix Suns (30-35)
Strengths:
High offensive output (114.4 PPG).
Strong three-point shooting (37.8%).
Weaknesses:
Poor defense (116.5 PPG allowed, 23rd in the league).
Inconsistent perimeter defense.
Houston Rockets (40-25)
Strengths:
Elite rebounding (48.1 RPG, 1st in NBA).
Solid defense (109.3 PPG allowed, 6th in the league).
Weaknesses:
Below-average three-point shooting percentage (34.5%).
Spread Pick: Rockets -4.5 (-110)
Houston’s rebounding dominance and home-court advantage give them the edge. I really liked this bet at first, but Amen Thompson is likely out and I do think it will be a tighter game.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Total Points (O/U): Over 229.0 (-110)
Both teams have shown trends toward high-scoring games recently, even if the Rockets play D.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Devin Booker - Over 25.5 Points (-115) (7/10 Confidence)
Alperen Şengün - Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110) (6/10 Confidence)
Jalen Green - Over 20.5 Points or over 3.5 Assists (6/10)
Parlay Play
Rockets ML (-175)
Over 229.0 (-110)
Devin Booker Over 25.5 Points (-115)
Jalen Green Over 20.5 Points
Odds: +500 (Approximate)
Confidence Level: 6/10
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Game Overview
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Spread: Nuggets -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Timberwolves +135 | Nuggets -160
Total (O/U): 236.0 (-110)
Key Betting Trends
Nuggets are 42-23 overall and have covered the spread in their last two games.
Timberwolves are 37-29 overall but have gone just 2-3 ATS in their last five games.
Matchup Breakdown
Minnesota Timberwolves (37-29)
Strengths:
Strong defense (109.2 PPG allowed, ranked sixth).
Elite rim protection.
Weaknesses:
Inconsistent offense and struggles against elite teams on the road.
Denver Nuggets (42-23)
Strengths:
Elite offense led by Nikola Jokić that feels like it is hitting stride.
Efficient shooting (60% FG in their last game).
Weaknesses:
Defensive lapses at times, allowing high shooting percentages to opponents.
Poor perimeter D.
Spread Pick: Nuggets -3.5 (-110)
Denver's home-court dominance and offensive efficiency make them a strong pick.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Total Points (O/U): Under 236.0 (-110)
Minnesota’s defense should help keep this game slightly below the total line.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Nikola Jokić - Over 12.5 Rebounds (-108) (7/10 Confidence)
Anthony Edwards - Over 27.5 Points (-110) (6/10 Confidence)
Russel Westbrook - Under 5.5 Assists (-115) (7/10 Confidence)
Dante Divencenzo - Over 11.5 Points (-110) (7/10 Confidence)
Parlay Play
Nuggets ML (-160)
Russel Westbrook - Under 5.5 Assists
Anthony Edwards - Over 27.5 Points
Dante Divencenzo - Over 11.5 Points
Odds: +1150 (Approximate)
New York Knicks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Game Overview
Venue: Moda Center, Portland, OR
Spread: Knicks -4.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Knicks -170 | Trail Blazers +145
Total (O/U): 227.0 (-105 Over / -115 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Knicks are 38-15 as favorites this season and have covered in over 60% of those games.
Trail Blazers are 23-36 overall but have gone 23-8 ATS when scoring above their opponent’s average points allowed.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the last 8 Knicks games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 5 Trail Blazers home games.
Matchup Breakdown
New York Knicks (43-22)
Strengths:
Efficient interior scoring (Top 10 in paint points).
Defensive toughness (7th in defensive rating).
Weaknesses:
Occasional defensive lapses against perimeter shooting teams.
No Brunsen hurts the offense in the half court.
Portland Trail Blazers (23-36)
Strengths:
Competitive ATS record when scoring well.
Decent offensive efficiency at home.
Weaknesses:
Poor defense overall.
Young shooters can go cold at times.
Spread Pick: Knicks -4.0 (-110)
New York’s superior roster makes them likely to cover even short-handed and on the road.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Total Points (O/U): Over 227.0 (-105)
Portland’s defense trends towards high-scoring games.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Karl-Anthony Towns - Over 25.5 Points (-110) (7/10 Confidence)
Josh Hart - Over 8.5 Rebounds (-112) (6/10 Confidence)
Anfernee Simons - Over 23.5 Points (-115) (6/10 Confidence)
Parlay Play
Knicks ML (-170)
Over 227.0 (-105)
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 24 Points (-110)
Odds: +290 (Approximate)
Confidence Level: 6/10
College Basketball Picks Today
So many games to dive into… I picked a few here that I like.
Early Matchups
📌 Richmond vs. Davidson– Davidson -6
Better team at just about all areas of the game and Richmond has injuries.
📌 Cincinnati vs. Iowa State – Iowa State -9.0
watched Cinci play yesterday and wasn’t impressed with their offense at all.
9 More College Basketball Picks Today! [PREMIUM ONLY]
📌 South Carolina vs. Arkansas – Arkansas -2 (-115)
Revenge spot for the Razorbacks against a struggling South Carolina team.
📌 Notre Dame vs. North Carolina – Under 149.5 (-110)
Both teams' defenses have improved, and scoring environment could be tough.
📌 Northwestern vs. Minnesota – Northwestern -3 (-110)
Northwestern’s defense has been dominant, while Minnesota’s offense is struggling.
📌 Texas vs. Vanderbilt – Over 148.5 (-110)
Both teams play fast with weak defenses, and their last matchup saw 164 points.
📌 CSU Bakersfield vs. UC Santa Barbara – UC Santa Barbara -4.5 (-110)
Santa Barbara has dominated this matchup historically and has the shooting edge.
📌 Texas-Arlington vs. Grand Canyon – Grand Canyon -8 (-110)
Grand Canyon’s defensive pressure should overwhelm UT Arlington’s turnover-prone offense.
📌 Kansas State vs. Baylor – Baylor -6.0
📌 USC vs. Rutgers – Rutgers -1.0
📌 Seton Hall vs. Villanova – Villanova -11.5