Let’s dive right into the action today. Hope you all make some money!
NY Knicks 1st Q -1.0
✅ Warriors are a bottom 5 first-quarter team on the road.Orlando Magic -7.0 vs. Toronto Raptors
✅ Orlando has been dominant at home and Toronto struggles on the road.Suns 1st Q +0.5
✅ Suns are a great first quarter team at home. Clippers are opposite on the road.
Jalen Green Over 3.5 Assists
✅ Playing against a poor defense and averaging over 4 per game this month.
🏀 NBA Picks Today - Tuesday, 3/4
📍 Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic (-7.0)
The Breakdown:
Orlando has been dominant at home, while Toronto has struggled on the road. The Magic’s defense has been solid, holding teams under 108 PPG, and they have the offensive weapons to take advantage of Toronto’s inconsistencies. The Raptors’ lack of scoring depth makes this a tough spot for them.
The Play:
➡️ Magic -7.0 – Orlando at home has been reliable, and Toronto has been bad on the road.
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📊 Over/Under: Under 209.0 – Both teams struggle offensively, so this could be a grind with Orlando being very tough on D.
👉Immanuel Quickley Under 26.5 PRA — Orlando is good at locking down opposing PGs.
👉Paolo Banchero Over 23.5 Points — Should be able to get to the midrange and get to the rack with Toronto being weak inside.
📌 Extra Insight: The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
📍 Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks (-4.0)
The Breakdown:
The Knicks have been great at Madison Square Garden, while the Warriors struggle on the road. Jalen Brunson has been leading the way, and Golden State’s defense hasn’t been able to stop teams efficiently. They gave up a career high to Grimes even. The Warriors bench is also inconsistent. Curry will probably do his damage but it’s hard for the Warriors to win down the stretch with an older unit that has to play high minutes to be effective. I think the Knicks are the better call here even though they lack consistency against good teams.
The Play:
➡️ Knicks -4.0 – Golden State has been rough on the road, and New York is rolling at home.
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📊 Over/Under: Over 228.0 – Both teams can score in bunches, and the pace should be fast.
👉NY Knicks 1st Q -1.0 — Golden State is a poor first quarter team and bottom 5 in the league on the road.
👉Karl Anthony-Towns Over 22.5 Points — Not a lot on the inside defensively for Golden State. Assuming he is healthy again, I expect a good game from KAT.
📌 Extra Insight: The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning record.
📍 Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5) at Atlanta Hawks
The Breakdown:
The Bucks are one of the best teams in the league right now since the All-Star break, while Atlanta has been struggling defensively all year. Atlanta had a big come from behind win at Memphis and coming off a back-to-back. Giannis should have a huge advantage inside against the Hawks’ weak interior defense. Atlanta’s offense is capable of keeping up, but their defensive struggles make them hard to trust.
The Play:
➡️ Bucks -6.5 – Milwaukee has too much firepower for an Atlanta team that doesn’t defend well. This spread was -5 last night and I really liked that. -6.5 is starting to get a little high so maybe wait for value on the live bet.
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👉Zaccharie Risacher Over 18.5 Points — Massive night against Memphis and the youth should help in a b2b situation.
👉Brook Lopez Under 14.5 Points — Expecting Lopez to get less looks this game from deep, which will limit is scoring upside.
📊 Over/Under: Under 240.5 – This total feels a bit inflated, especially if the Bucks control the pace.
📌 Extra Insight: The Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after a win.
📍 Cleveland Cavaliers (-12.0) at Chicago Bulls
The Breakdown:
Cleveland has been shutting teams down with their elite defense, while Chicago has struggled to put up points and have been poor defensively all year. The Bulls’ lack of scoring depth and reliance on inconsistent shooting makes them a tough bet against a top-tier Cavs defense. Going to roll with the Cavs but not super interested in this game.
The Play:
➡️ Cavaliers -12.0 – Chicago’s won’t be able to keep up against Cleveland in any way.
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📊 Over/Under: Under 242.5 – The Bulls don’t score much, and the Cavs control the pace and play defense well against guards so it’ll be tough for White and Giddey to get going.
👉Josh Giddey Over 26.5 Points + Rebs (+105) — Giddey has been hot all month and his point total is still set pretty low — I like matching it with rebounds because it is less dependent on the Cavs defensively shutting down the Bulls.
👉Lonzo Ball Under 15.5 Points + Rebs — I don’t see Ball going off against a great Cavs defense and his rebounding is limited always.
📌 Extra Insight: The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 against teams over .500.
📍 Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves (-14)
The Breakdown:
Minnesota has been dominant at home, and Philadelphia is missing key players. The Timberwolves have a size and defensive advantage, which should make things difficult for the 76ers. Without a full roster, it’s hard to see Philly keeping this close.
The Play:
➡️ Avoid – I don’t trust Minnesota with a number this big. 76ers show up when you least expect it but they’re ravaged with injuries and basically trying to lose. I’d just stay away from this one.
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📊 Over/Under: Under 222 – The Sixers’ offense isn’t at full strength, and Minnesota plays great defense and has stretches of struggling to score.
👉Paul George Under 20.5 Points – His line is up due to injuries but I think that actually hurts his game since he’s just not a guy who is going to carry this team on his back.
👉Naz Reid Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds – Looking for another bounce back from Reid in this one. Hitting 10 rebounds pretty consistently.
📌 Extra Insight: The under has hit in seven of Minnesota’s last 10 home games.
📍 Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs (-4.0)
The Breakdown:
The Nets have struggled to stop interior scorers, but the Spurs don’t have a lot inside. The Spurs have been more competitive in recent games, and their young core is gaining some confidence even without Wemby. Spurs seem like the right call here. I think this should be more like -6 so I see value with the Spurs at home. The Nets have trouble scoring in big stretches, but Cam Thomas and Cameron Johnson are both playing and they’ve looked different when totally healthy.
The Play:
➡️ Spurs -4.0 – Brooklyn has been a mess on the interior and can’t score. I don’t trust the Spurs a ton in this spot as favorites but they’re the better side.
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📊 Over/Under: Over 224.5 – The Spurs have been playing at a faster pace, and Brooklyn’s defense is suspect lately.
👉De’Aaron Fox Over 22.5 Points – Fox should be able to get going against the Nets.
📌 Extra Insight: The Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
📍 Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers (-3.0)
The Breakdown:
Houston has been on solid lately, and their young squad has been stepping up. The Pacers have been shaky on defense, giving up too many easy baskets. I find the Pacers to be one of the harder teams to read in the league. It should be a higher scoring team so the Rockets are going to have to hit threes to keep up and try to stop the Pacers late.
The Play:
➡️ Rockets +3.5 – Houston is playing with confidence, and Indiana’s defense isn’t reliable. Houston needs to definitely shoot well to cover.
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📊 Over/Under: Over 231.0 – Both teams like to run, so expect a fast-paced game. The Rockets play good D but against good offensive teams it seems they tend to get into shootouts.
👉Jalen Green Over 3.5 Assists – Green averages 4.4 this month and has 10 assist upside against a poor defensive team.
📌 Extra Insight: The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
📍 Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns (+2.5)
The Breakdown:
The Clippers have been inconsistent lately, while the Suns have really struggled to cover any spread at home. Phoenix’s seems very much in dissaray. The Clippers rely on isolation plays, which might not be the best approach against Phoenix. This is a really tough one to call
The Play:
➡️ Suns +2.5 – Phoenix’s home-court advantage should help them pull this one out as an underdog. I would advise to stay away from this game though.
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📊 Over/Under: Under 225.5 – Both teams have played better defense lately. All the player point projections on the Suns are pointing more towards the under.
👉Suns 1st Q +0.5 – The Suns are a great first quarter team, especially at home and the Clippers struggle in the 1st on the road. This is my favorite bet for this game.
👉Devin Booker Over 24.5 Points – Booker has the better matchup here, but Durant might also be worth a look at 23.5 points.
📌 Extra Insight: The under has hit in four of the Suns’ last five games.
📍 New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers (-8.5)
The Breakdown:
The Lakers have been great at home, and LeBron continues to play at an elite level. The Pelicans have struggled in these types of spots, and their defense has been hit or miss. The Lakers should be able to take care of business, especially if they get an early lead.
The Play:
➡️ Lakers -8.5 – The Pelicans have had issues against good teams, and the Lakers have been very consistent at home.
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📊 Over/Under: Over 229.0 – Fast pace, plenty of scoring, and potential for a late-game explosion. Pelicans are capable of high scoring games
👉Luka Doncic Over 15.5 Assists + Rebs – This is an easy number for Luka to hit in what could be a higher scoring game.
👉Trey Murphy Over 19.5 Points – I like the matchup for Murphy in this one.
📌 Extra Insight: The Lakers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games.
College Basketball Picks Today - Tuesday, 3/4
📍 LSU at #19 Kentucky (-12.5)
The Breakdown:
Kentucky has been good at home, especially against weaker SEC opponents. LSU has struggled on the road all season, particularly against physical teams that dominate the boards. The Wildcats have been scoring efficiently, but their defense has been hit or miss, leading to some closer-than-expected games.
The Play:
➡️ LSU +12.5 – Kentucky should win comfortably, but they’ve been letting teams hang around late. LSU sucks but I think they can potentially cover.
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📊 Over/Under: Over 157.5 – Both teams play fast and push the tempo, expect plenty of scoring.
📍 #16 Memphis (-8.5) at UTSA
The Breakdown:
Memphis has been a force in their conference, and UTSA has been outmatched by top-tier competition. The Tigers are dominant in transition, and UTSA’s defense is one of the worst in the conference. The Roadrunners might keep it close early, but Memphis should pull away in the second half.
The Play:
➡️ Memphis -8.5 – Memphis has too much size and speed for UTSA to handle.
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📊 Over/Under: Over 158.0 – Memphis loves to run, and UTSA’s defense is nonexistent.
📍 Rutgers at #18 Purdue (-10.0)
⏰ 4:00 PM ET
The Breakdown:
Purdue has been dominant at home, but Rutgers has been surprisingly competitive against ranked opponents. The Boilermakers control the paint, but Rutgers has a solid defense. If they can slow the pace, they can stay within this number.
The Play:
➡️ Rutgers +10.0 – Purdue will win, but Rutgers has a tough enough defense to keep this one close.
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📊 Over/Under: Under 154.0 – Rutgers will try to slow this down, making the under a strong play.
📍 Texas at #25 Mississippi State (-7.0)
⏰ 5:00 PM ET
The Breakdown:
Mississippi State is very solid at home, while Texas has been struggling on the road. The Bulldogs’ defense locks down opponents, while Texas relies too much on outside shooting. If the Longhorns get cold, this could get ugly.
The Play:
➡️ Mississippi State -7.0 – The Bulldogs’ defense and home-court advantage are too much for Texas. Just note that Texas is a very good second half team.
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📊 Over/Under: Under 151.0 – Mississippi State’s defensive intensity should keep this from turning into a shootout.
📍 #1 Auburn (-5) at #22 Texas A&M
⏰ 6:00 PM ET
The Breakdown:
Auburn has been elite on both ends, but this is a tough road test. Texas A&M has been one of the best rebounding teams in the country, and they thrive in physical, grind-it-out games. Auburn is still the better team, but this won’t be a walk in the park.
The Play:
➡️ Auburn -5 – The Aggies’ defense and rebounding can keep this close, but Auburn should pull away at the end.
📊 Over/Under: Under 149.0 – Expect a slower-paced, physical battle.
📍 #23 BYU at #10 Iowa State (-8.5)
⏰ 6:00 PM ET
The Breakdown:
Iowa State has been dominating at home, with one of the best defenses in the country. BYU has been solid, but they struggle against elite defenses, although they can score in bunches (more so at home). The Cyclones force a ton of turnovers, and BYU has been careless with the ball on the road.
The Play:
➡️ Iowa State -8.5 – The Cyclones’ defense should overwhelm BYU’s offense.
📊 Over/Under: Under 150.5 – Iowa State will control the tempo, keeping this one from turning into a shootout.
📍 Arizona State at #24 Arizona (-17.5)
⏰ 8:00 PM ET
The Breakdown:
Arizona has been beating up on weaker teams, and Arizona State is overmatched here. The Wildcats push the tempo and have a huge talent gap over ASU. If Arizona gets out to an early lead, this could turn into a rout.
The Play:
➡️ Arizona -17.5 – Arizona State doesn’t have the depth or firepower to keep up.
📊 Over/Under: Over 155.0 – Arizona will push the pace and run up the score. I really like the over in this one.