Hey! Just another note today that I moved the name of the newsletter back to Minted Bets in case you’re confused at all :). Nothing much changes. I had some extra time today to dive deeper into NBA games and provide more info. Hope you enjoy and best of luck today!
It’s just $20. You can get access to 5+ picks today for each NBA game. The value is definitely there. If you don’t like it, cancel it. But I’m pretty sure it’ll pay off.
NBA Best Picks Today - Sunday, 3/9 [PREMIUM ONLY - 7 Best Picks]
1️⃣ OKC Thunder -7.5
2️⃣ Jalen Williams Over 19.5 Points
3️⃣ Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds
4️⃣ Bucks 1st Q +3.5
5️⃣ Desmond Bane Under 24.5 Points
6️⃣ Pistons 1st Q -0.5
7️⃣ Under 232.5 (-105) (Spurs vs. Timberwolves)
NBA Deep Dive 👇
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Game Overview
Tip-off: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Spread: Thunder -7.5 (-115) | Nuggets +7.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Thunder -300 | Nuggets +250
Total (O/U): 243.0 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Nuggets: 7-3 straight-up in their last 10 games but only 4-6 against the spread (ATS).
Thunder: 8-2 straight-up in their last 10, covering in 5 of those matchups.
Head-to-Head: Teams have split their last 10 matchups (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS), with the under hitting in 6 of those games.
Key Factors:
The Thunder lead the league in defensive efficiency.
Nikola Jokic is coming off a historic performance (31-21-22).
Oklahoma City has covered the spread in 18 of its last 20 home games.
Matchup Breakdown
Denver Nuggets (41-22, 31-31-1 ATS)
Strengths:
Ranked 3rd in offensive rating and 1st in FG% (50.7%)
Elite fast-break offense (1st in fast-break points)
Nikola Jokic: Averaging 28.8 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 10.4 APG
Weaknesses:
Defensive struggles (22nd in opponent PPG)
Inconsistent against the spread in recent matchups
Key Injuries: No major injuries reported.
Oklahoma City Thunder (52-12, 39-21-4 ATS)
Strengths:
Best defense in the NBA (1st in defensive rating)
Efficient shooting team (Top 5 in FG% and 3PT%)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 32.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 6.2 APG
Weaknesses:
Turnover-prone at times
Recent injuries have led to occasional inconsistency
Key Injuries: Several starters rested in the last game but are expected to play.
5+ Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick
Thunder -7.5 (-115)
Oklahoma City has covered in 6 straight games and 18 of their last 20 home games.
Denver has struggled to cover against top-tier teams.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Total Points (O/U)
Under 243 (-110)
The under has hit in 6 of the last 10 matchups between these teams.
Thunder’s elite defense could slow down Denver’s fast-paced attack.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Jalen Williams – Over 19.5 Points (-127)
Has cleared this line in 6 straight games.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Nikola Jokic – Over 12.5 Rebounds (-108)
Has covered this in 5 straight matchups.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Over 32.5 Points (-114)
He’s averaging 33+ PPG and is the Thunder’s go-to scorer.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Parlay Play
Thunder ML (-300)
Under 243 (-110)
Jalen Williams Over 19.5 Points (-127)
Odds: +475 (Approximate)
Confidence Level: 6/10 – Moderate risk, small stake recommended
Betting Strategy Notes
✅ Prioritize Thunder ATS bets based on their strong home record.
⚠️ Consider live betting if Nuggets start strong, as the Thunder dominate second halves.
📊 Player props on Williams (Over Points) and Jokic (Over Rebounds) offer solid value.
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks
Game Overview
Tip-off: 3:30 PM ET
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Spread: Suns -8.0 (-110) | Mavericks +8.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Suns -320 | Mavericks +260
Total (O/U): 228.5 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Suns: 3-7 straight-up in their last 10, 5-5 against the spread (ATS).
Mavericks: 4-6 straight-up and ATS in their last 10.
Head-to-Head: The series is split 5-5 straight-up over the last 10 matchups, with Dallas leading ATS 6-4.
Total Trends: The under has hit in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Key Factors:
Phoenix has won two of three matchups this season, but Dallas won the most recent meeting.
The Suns rank 11th in offensive rating but struggle defensively (27th in defensive rating).
Dallas is dealing with significant injuries, including Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis.
Matchup Breakdown
Phoenix Suns (29-34, 23-39-1 ATS)
Strengths:
Efficient offense (10th in FG%, 4th in 3PT%).
Top-tier scoring duo with Kevin Durant (26.9 PPG) and Devin Booker (25.9 PPG).
Decent ball movement (10th in assists per game).
Weaknesses:
Poor defense (27th in defensive rating, allowing 116.0 PPG).
Struggles on the boards (27th in rebounding).
Key Injuries: SF Cody Martin (abdomen) and PG Monte Morris (back) are questionable.
Dallas Mavericks (32-31, 30-30-3 ATS)
Strengths:
Balanced offense (9th in offensive rating).
Solid three-point shooting (8th in 3PT%).
Weaknesses:
Struggling defense (14th in defensive rating).
Injury concerns impacting performance.
Key Injuries: Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis are out. PF P.J. Washington (ankle) is questionable.
5+ Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick
Suns -8.0 (-110)
Phoenix has covered in 4 of its last 5 road games.
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Total Points (O/U)
Over 228.5 (-110)
The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 Suns games.
Dallas struggles defensively, and Phoenix can take advantage.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Top Player Props
Bradley Beal – Over 16.5 Points (-109)
Averaging 21.8 PPG over his last five road games.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Kevin Durant – Over 3.5 Assists (-156)
Has covered this in 4 of his last 5 games.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Parlay Play
Suns ML (-320)
Over 228.5 (-110)
Bradley Beal Over 16.5 Points (-109)
Odds: +475 (Approximate)
Confidence Level: 6/10 – Moderate risk, small stake recommended
Betting Strategy Notes
✅ Prioritize Suns ATS bets given Dallas’ injury struggles.
⚠️ Monitor injury reports for any last-minute updates on P.J. Washington.
📊 Player props on Beal (Over Points) and Durant (Over Assists) provide strong value.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Game Overview
Tip-off: 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Spread: Grizzlies -9.0 (-115) | Pelicans +9.0 (-105)
Moneyline: Grizzlies -390 | Pelicans +295
Total (O/U): 238.0 (-115 Over / -105 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Grizzlies: 3-7 straight-up in their last 10, but 5-5 against the spread (ATS).
Pelicans: 5-5 straight-up and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.
Head-to-Head: Memphis has won 7 of the last 10 meetings and is on a three-game win streak vs. New Orleans.
Total Trends: The over has hit in 6 of the last 10 matchups between these teams.
Key Factors:
Memphis is 2nd in the NBA in scoring at 122.9 PPG.
New Orleans allows 119.3 PPG, ranking 26th in defense.
The Pelicans are 2-11 in back-to-back games this season, with a -11.7 PPG margin in those matchups.
Matchup Breakdown
Memphis Grizzlies (39-24, 36-26-1 ATS)
Strengths:
Elite offense: 2nd in PPG (122.9), 5th in FG% (48.3%).
Strong rebounding: 2nd in total rebounds per game (56.9).
Dominant in the paint: 2nd in PPG in the paint (56.4).
Weaknesses:
High turnover rate (29th in TO/game at 16.2).
Defense gives up points (25th in defensive rating).
Key Injuries:
Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle) – Likely out.
Santi Aldama (calf) – Out.
Luke Kennard (back) – Doubtful.
New Orleans Pelicans (17-47, 25-38-1 ATS)
Strengths:
Decent steals per game (5th in NBA).
Respectable offensive rebounding (7th in ORB/game).
Weaknesses:
Poor defense (26th in opponent PPG at 119.3).
Struggle in back-to-backs (2-11 with a -11.7 margin).
Below-average shooting (24th in FG%, 23rd in 3PT%).
Key Injuries:
Herb Jones (shoulder) – Out for season.
Dejounte Murray (Achilles) – Out for season.
Brandon Boston Jr. (ankle) – Out.
Bruce Brown (rest) – Questionable.
5+ Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick
Grizzlies -9.0 (-115)
Memphis is 59.5% ATS as favorites and has won 7 of 10 vs. New Orleans.
Pelicans are 2-11 in back-to-backs with a -11.7 PPG margin.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Total Points (O/U)
Under 238.0 (-105)
The under has hit in 5 of the last 7 Pelicans home games.
New Orleans' offense struggles in back-to-backs.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Top Player Props
Desmond Bane – Under 24.5 Points (-120)
Averaging 19.2 PPG in his last five road games.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Ja Morant – Under 4.5 Rebounds (-141)
Has hit under 4.5 boards in 6 of his last 7 games.
Confidence Level: 6/10
C.J. McCollum – Over 19.5 Points (-123)
Expected to take on a higher usage rate with injuries.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Parlay Play
Grizzlies -9.0 (-115)
Under 238.0 (-105)
Desmond Bane Under 24.5 Points (-120)
Odds: +475 (Approximate)
Confidence Level: 7/10 – Moderate risk, strong value
Betting Strategy Notes
✅ Grizzlies ATS bets are favorable given New Orleans' struggles in back-to-backs.
📊 Pelicans' defense is weak—fade their spread & back key Memphis props.
Utah Jazz vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Game Overview
Tip-off: 4:30 PM ET
Venue: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
Spread: 76ers -5.5 (-115) | Jazz +5.5 (-105)
Moneyline: 76ers -235 | Jazz +195
Total (O/U): 228.0 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Jazz: 6-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games.
76ers: 2-8 straight-up (SU) and ATS in their last 10 games.
Head-to-Head: The 76ers have won 2 straight vs. the Jazz, including a 114-111 win in December.
Total Trends: The over has hit in 9 of the last 10 Jazz games.
Key Factors:
Both teams are heavily injured and not prioritizing wins.
Utah is ranked 28th in defense (119.7 OPP PPG) but plays at a fast pace.
Philly has the 30th-ranked defense in FG% allowed (48.8%) and struggles against high-volume offenses.
Matchup Breakdown
Utah Jazz (15-48, 33-30 ATS)
Strengths:
High-volume rebounding (4th in total rebounds per game).
Shoots a lot of threes (8th in attempts, 10th in makes).
Weaknesses:
Terrible turnover rate (30th in TO/game at 16.6).
Last in the league in steals per game (30th).
Key Injuries:
Lauri Markkanen
John Collins
Jordan Clarkson
Walker Kessler
Philadelphia 76ers (21-41, 21-39-2 ATS)
Strengths:
Top 5 in steals per game (9.3 SPG).
Decent free throw efficiency (78.7%, ranked 13th).
Weaknesses:
Bottom 5 in total rebounds (30th).
One of the worst shooting defenses (30th in opponent shooting efficiency).
Key Injuries:
Joel Embiid
Tyrese Maxey
Paul George
Jared McCain
Eric Gordon
Kyle Lowry
5+ Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick
Jazz +5.5 (-105)
Jazz have covered 6 of their last 10 games, while Philly has failed to cover in 8 of their last 10.
The 76ers are missing their top 5 scorers, so it's unclear where points will come from.
Even with Utah missing key guys, the 76ers aren't in any position to be trusted as favorites. This feels pretty even.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Total Points (O/U)
Over 228.0 (-110)
The over has hit in 9 of the last 10 Jazz games and in their last 5 straight.
Neither team plays strong defense (Jazz 28th, Sixers 30th in defensive efficiency).
Even with injuries, expect fast-paced, inefficient defense leading to points.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Top Player Props
Quentin Grimes – Under 5.5 Assists (-103)
Has gone under 5.5 assists in 8 of his last 10 games.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Keyonte George – Over 21.5 Points (-104)
With injuries to Utah's main scorers, George will have to carry the offensive load.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Parlay Play
Jazz +5.5 (-105)
Over 228.0 (-110)
Quentin Grimes Under 5.5 A (-128)
Odds: +550 (Approximate)
Confidence Level: 7/10 – Moderate risk, strong value
Betting Strategy Notes
✅ Jazz ATS bets are favorable due to Philly’s lack of firepower.
⚠️ Be cautious with Sixers’ offensive props—they're missing their top players.
📊 Expect a sloppy, high-paced game leading to the over hitting.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Game Overview
Tip-off: 5:00 PM ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Spread: Bucks +9.5 (-105) | Cavaliers -9.5 (-115)
Total (O/U): 238.5 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Cavaliers: 10-2 against the spread (ATS) with 2-3 days of rest.
Bucks: 8-2 straight-up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Head-to-Head: Cavs have won the last 4 meetings against the Bucks.
Total Trends: The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 Bucks home games.
Key Factors
Cleveland has the best record in the NBA (53-10) and is on a 13-game winning streak.
The Bucks are playing the second leg of a back-to-back, making fatigue a concern.
The Cavs lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, shooting 49.5% from the field.
Milwaukee is 29th in free throw percentage (74.9%) and struggles to capitalize at the line.
Matchup Breakdown
Cleveland Cavaliers (53-10, 40-22-1 ATS)
Strengths:
Best three-point shooting team in the NBA (39.2%).
Elite defense, allowing just 111.7 PPG (11th in the league).
Dominant fourth-quarter scoring (first in the NBA).
Weaknesses:
Average rebounding team (12th in total rebounds per game).
Struggles in transition defense (15.0 fastbreak points allowed per game).
Key Players:
Donovan Mitchell: 24.4 PPG, 4.7 APG.
Darius Garland: 21.0 PPG, 6.7 APG.
Evan Mobley: 10.0 RPG, 18.5 PPG.
Milwaukee Bucks (36-26, 30-32-1 ATS)
Strengths:
Strong three-point shooting team (38.5%, 2nd in the NBA).
Top rebounding team (1st in defensive rebounds per game).
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard can take over games offensively.
Weaknesses:
Bottom 5 in offensive rebounding (30th).
Free throw struggles (74.9%, 29th in the league).
On a back-to-back, potentially resting key players.
Key Players:
Giannis Antetokounmpo: 30.8 PPG, 12.1 RPG.
Damian Lillard: 25.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG.
Brook Lopez: 10.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG.
5+ Picks & Betting Strategy NotesSpread Pick
Cavaliers -9.5 (-115)
Cleveland is 10-2 ATS with 2-3 days of rest and has won 13 straight.
The Bucks are playing their second game in two nights, a tough scheduling spot.
The Cavs have dominated this matchup, winning the last four meetings.
Confidence Level: 8/10
Total Points (O/U)
Under 238.5 (-110)
The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 Bucks home games.
Cleveland ranks top 10 in defensive efficiency.
The Bucks struggle at the free-throw line, limiting overall scoring.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Top Player Props
Donovan Mitchell – Under 5.5 Assists (-145)
Has recorded under 5.5 assists in 8 of his last 9 games.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Brook Lopez – Over 10.5 Points (-115)
Has gone over this total in 8 of his last 10 games.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Parlay Play
Darius Garland Over 18.5 Points (-115)
Under 238.5 (-110)
Donovan Mitchell Under 5.5 Assists (-145)
Odds: +475 (Approximate)
Confidence Level: 7/10 – Moderate risk, strong value
Betting Strategy Notes
✅ Cavaliers ATS bets are favorable due to Milwaukee’s fatigue concerns.
⚠️ Be cautious with Bucks player props in case of rest.
📊 Expect a controlled, lower-scoring game favoring the Cavs.
Also consider the Bucks 1st Q +3.5. They are a very good 1st Quarter Team (so is Cleveland, but I anticipate a close start).
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Game Overview
Tip-off: 5:00 PM ET
Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Spread: Timberwolves -11.0 (-110) | Spurs +11.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Timberwolves -550 | Spurs +390
Total (O/U): 232.5 (-115 Over / -105 Under)
Key Betting Trends
Spurs: 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games.
Timberwolves: 6-4 straight-up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Head-to-Head: The Timberwolves have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, including the past 2 matchups.
Total Trends: The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 Timberwolves home games.
Key Factors
San Antonio struggles defensively, allowing 115.4 points per game (21st in the NBA).
Minnesota ranks 5th in opponent points per game (109.0), making them one of the better defensive teams.
The Spurs allow the most field goal attempts per game (93.3), creating a defensive liability.
The Timberwolves rank 3rd in opponent three-point percentage, holding teams to just 34.8% from deep.
Matchup Breakdown
San Antonio Spurs (26-35, 27-34 ATS)
Strengths:
✅ Top 10 in assists per game (29.0, ranked 6th).
✅ Lead the NBA in blocks per game (6.2).
✅ Rank 3rd in personal fouls per game (16.4), meaning they don’t give up many free throws.
Weaknesses:
❌ Bottom 5 in total rebounds allowed (53.9 per game).
❌ 21st in effective field goal percentage (53.9%).
❌ 26th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt (0.233).
Minnesota Timberwolves (36-29, 29-35-1 ATS)
Strengths:
✅ 3rd in opponent three-point makes per game (12.6).
✅ 5th in defensive rating (allowing 109.0 PPG).
✅ 5th in three-point percentage (37.7%).
Weaknesses:
❌ Bottom 10 in free throw attempts per game (21.6).
❌ Rank 20th in assists per game (25.6).
❌ Struggle in transition offense (27th in fastbreak points per game).
Picks & Predictions [PREMIUM ONLY🔒]
5+ Picks & Betting Strategy Notes
Spread Pick
✅ Spurs +11.0 (-110)
The Timberwolves have won 4 straight games and are dominant at home against struggling teams. I think rest may be a factor here.
Minnesota doesn’t cover big spreads.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Total Points (O/U)
✅ Under 232.5 (-105)
The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 Timberwolves home games.
The Spurs have scored under 113 points in 6 of their last 10 games.
Minnesota plays at a slower pace, ranking 20th in points per game.
Confidence Level: 7/10
Top Player Props
📌 Devin Vassell – Over 2.5 Assists (+132)
Has had over 2.5 assists in 5 straight games.
Confidence Level: 6/10
Parlay Play
Devin Vassell – Over 2.5 Assists + Spurs +12.5 = +300
Betting Strategy Notes
✅ Not trusting Minnesota to cover a big number yet.
⚠️ Be cautious with Spurs’ offensive props with no Wemby.
📊 Expect Minnesota’s defense to control the pace and keep scoring low.
The Other NBA Games
I’m not as interested in betting either of these games… but here are some picks.
Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trail Blazers (6:00 PM ET)
Spread: POR -3.0 (-110) | DET +3.0 (-110)
Moneyline: POR -140 | DET +120
Total: O/U 233.5 (-110)
Betting Strategy Notes:
✅ Over 233.5 – Both teams are defensive liabilities, and this total isn’t too high given their styles of play.
💡 Lean Pistons 1H Spread or 1st Q – Detroit tends to start games competitively.
Sacramento Kings vs. L.A. Clippers (6:30 PM ET)
Spread: LAC -6.0 (-110) | SAC +6.0 (-110)
Moneyline: LAC -230 | SAC +190
Total: O/U 217.0 (-110)
Betting Strategy Notes:
✅ L.A. Clippers -6.0 – The Kings’ defensive issues and the Clippers' ability to dictate pace give LAC the edge.
✅ Under 217.0 – Sacramento struggles in slow-paced, defensive battles, and the Clippers will force them into one.
💡 Lean Clippers 1H Spread – L.A. has been a strong first-half team at home, and Sacramento’s offense can be sluggish to start.
College Basketball Today - 3/9
Just looking at the battle for Michigan!
College Basketball Betting Analysis: Michigan (#17) vs. Michigan State (#8)
📅 Date: 3/9/25 | 🕘 Time: 9:00 AM ET
🏀 Spread: MSU -7.5 (-115) | MICH +7.5 (-105)
💰 Moneyline: MSU -360 | MICH +280
📊 Total: O/U 147.0 (-110)
Team Analysis:
Michigan (#17):
A solid squad with strong perimeter play but struggles against physical defensive teams.
They lack interior depth, which could be a problem against Michigan State’s size and rebounding.
Tend to perform better in transition and when they control the tempo.
Likely to be competitive early but could fade late against a more disciplined team.
Michigan State (#8):
One of the best defensive teams in the country, known for physicality and elite rebounding.
They control the half-court game and excel at limiting transition buckets.
At home, they are dominant, with a high ATS cover rate when playing in East Lansing.
Their ability to close out games late makes them reliable when protecting a lead.
✅ Michigan State -7.5 (-115) – Michigan struggles against elite defenses, and MSU should control the glass and tempo.
✅ Under 147.0 (-110) – Michigan State’s defense and slower pace should limit Michigan’s scoring opportunities.
💡 Lean Michigan +4.0 1H – Michigan could keep it close early before MSU pulls away late.
Premier League Betting Analysis: Manchester United vs. Arsenal
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