🏀NBA Best Picks + NCAA - Friday 2/28

Here is a summary of the top picks for premium members only. The rest of the breakdowns of games are further down.

📍 Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons (-1.5) ⏰ 7:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: The Denver Nuggets are coming off a 121-112 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, where Nikola Jokić recorded a triple-double. Despite Jokić's consistent performances, the Nuggets have struggled defensively, allowing opponents to score heavily in recent games. The Detroit Pistons have been strong at home and are looking to capitalize on Denver's defensive lapses. This is a tough one where the data and recency says to take Detroit, but my gut says to take Denver because they’re simply the better team (although not playing like it!). I’ll take Denver on the moneyline but it’s going to be a tough one and I won’t be surprised if Detroit gives them a beatdown. If it’s close, I like Denver.

The Play: Nuggets ML (+105)

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

📍 Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (-2.5) ⏰ 7:30 PM ET

The Breakdown: The Cleveland Cavaliers (48-10) boast the best record in the NBA, thanks to their balanced offense and defense. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland have been pivotal in their success, both on the offensive and defensive end. The Boston Celtics (42-17) are really good at home. Boston is also coming off a letdown performance and always seems to get up for the big games. This matchup is expected to be a close contest, with the Celtics slightly favored by 2.5 points. I have a hard time seeing Boston lose at home. I like their height advantage and physical advantage at the wing positions here against Cleveland. I also think Porzingis could be the difference in this one. Give me the Celtics, but my favorite bet is probably the under here — both teams are pretty solid defensively and should step up for a competitive game. Maybe wait for some live value on Boston and the over after the 1st quarter.

The Play: Celtics -2.5

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

📍 Oklahoma City Thunder (-12.0) at Atlanta Hawks ⏰ 7:30 PM ET

The Breakdown: The Oklahoma City Thunder (47-11) have been dominant this season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the league in scoring at 32.3 points per game. The Atlanta Hawks (27-32) have struggled with consistency - mostly because they don’t play defense - and face a tough challenge against the high-powered Thunder offense. This smells like a Thunder blowout because the Hawks just can’t stop them, but ATL can always get hot and stay in the game.

The Play: Thunder -12.0

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

Over/Under: Over 243.5

📍 Portland Trail Blazers at Brooklyn Nets (+2.0) ⏰ 7:30 PM ET

The Breakdown: The Portland Trail Blazers (26-33) are on a three-game winning streak, showing improved cohesion on the court. The Brooklyn Nets (21-37) have faced challenges this season, but this team is scrappy and fighting hard. I love taking the Nets in situations where they are double-digit underdogs and they stay in the game with their defense. So, for this game, I’m not really loving either side. These are not teams you can trust and there’s not a ton of value here on the board. If I have to pick a side it’s Portland.

The Play: Trail Blazers -2

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

📍 Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (+4.5) ⏰ 8:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: The Indiana Pacers (30-29) have been performing pretty well lately and coming around a little bit in the final stretch. The Miami Heat (28-31) have been inconsistent but are known for their strong home-court advantage. The Heat are very tough to get a read on night in night out. The Pacers can be prone to playing no defense at all or scoring 140 points. This game has too many variables to count. I think it’s in the Heat’s interest to keep it lower scoring, but if they play like they did against Atlanta last game, they have a good shot. I’ll be more focused on players for this one, but I do like the Heat at home with the points. One note to watch: Bam is questionable and so is Wiggins so if these guys are out, the Pacers are probably taking this easily.

The Play: Heat +4.5 (pending injuries)

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

📍 New York Knicks at Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5) ⏰ 8:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: The New York Knicks (38-20) have been struggling recently, and overall just underperforming in bigger games against good teams. The Memphis Grizzlies (38-20) are coming off a high-scoring overtime win against the Phoenix Suns. This is a battle of two very good offensive teams with somewhat similar makeups in the sense that they score a lot, could play defense, but seem to just not be interested in playing defense! I think this could be a really close one. I’ll take the Knicks and the points, but I don’t have a strong view here. Some potential injury impacts: KAT is Q, Bane is day-to-day (groin), and Josh Hart is Q (knee). There’s a chance Mitchell Robinson comes back this game for the Knicks also, which could help them out on defense a lot.

The Play: Knicks +4.5 (avoid until KAT is confirmed in - if out, take Memphis)

The best bet might be to just take Grizzlies (-1) 1st Quarter.

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

Over/Under: Over 244.5

📍 Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls (-1.5) ⏰ 8:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: The Toronto Raptors (18-41) have faced significant challenges this season, struggling to find consistency on both ends of the floor — they’re decent at home but terrible on the road. The Chicago Bulls (23-36) recently snapped a six-game losing streak, with Josh Giddey delivering standout performances. Giddey is really coming on lately as a scorer and very good all-around player. The over/under total seems pretty jacked up to me at 234.5, especially with the Raptors being very up and down.

The Play: Bulls -1.5

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

Over/Under: Under 234.5

📍 New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns (-7.5) ⏰ 9:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: The New Orleans Pelicans (28-31) are coming off a solid 124-116 road victory over the Phoenix Suns, highlighted by Zion Williamson's first career triple-double. The Phoenix Suns (30-29) have been struggling to cover any spread as a favorite. I don’t know what to do with this one — yesterday, we hit this exact bet pretty much with the Pelicans winning outright. I’m not sure what has changed between now and then, but it feels odd to expect the same outcome, so I am staying away. However, I think the Pelicans still keep this close even if they do not win.

The Play: Pelicans +7.5

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

📍 Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz (+2.5) ⏰ 9:30 PM ET

The Breakdown: The Minnesota Timberwolves (29-30) are looking to bounce back after a 111-102 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers, where LeBron James and Luka Dončić dominated. So, why is the spread so small? Well, Anthony Edwards got ejected with two technicals and is now suspended for the game (pending league review) for his 16th T of the season. The Utah Jazz (27-32) have been inconsistent for sure, so this is no easy win for them with ANT not playing. I feel like the under is a really good play here considering everything, and I’ll take the T’Wolves to play as a team if Ant is out. Looking for Naz Reid to step up here also. A good amount of injuries on the board for both teams — I’ll just take the better team and go with Minnesota.

The Play: Timberwolves -2.5

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

📍 Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers (+4.5) ⏰ 10:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: The Los Angeles Lakers (35-23) are on a four-game winning streak, recently securing a 111-102 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves, with LeBron James and Luka Dončić leading the charge. This team is starting to look a little scary, but let’s see how it plays out against a quality defensive opponent. The Los Angeles Clippers (31-27) have been competitive, but struggling on the road. This game is technically on the road, but right in the backyard for the Clippers. I feel like the Clippers matchup well against the Lakers with their wing players, but how are the Lakers underdogs here at home? I understand the back-to-back a little but the Clippers aren’t exactly a young team either. Does someone know something? I really want to take the Lakers but I feel like I’m getting baited here! There’s a chance Lebron or Luka could sit, I guess that must be it.

The Play: Lakers +4.5 or Lakers 1st Q +120 ML

Over/Under + Player Props [PREMIUM ONLY]

Here’s a parlay for all you parlay junkies — this one is +1200. [PREMIUM ONLY]

Note: I’m currently running cold on college basketball. It’s newer for me compared to NBA where I’m extremely fucking dialed in. I’ll get there, but it might take a week or two catching up on teams and games.

📍 UCLA at #20 Purdue (-5.5)

⏰ February 28, 2025 – 5:00 PM ET

The Breakdown: Purdue enters this matchup with a strong home-court advantage at Mackey Arena, where they’ve covered 62% of their home spreads this season. The Boilermakers rely on their inside presence and rebounding, with a top-10 offensive rebounding rate in the nation. UCLA, on the other hand, has been up and down on the road, struggling to generate consistent offense against physical defenses. Purdue has dropped 4 in a row.

One key factor in this game is Purdue’s size advantage—they play through their bigs, and UCLA's lack of interior defense could be a major issue. Purdue's slow, methodical pace forces opponents into half-court sets, which limits fast-break opportunities—something UCLA thrives on.

The Bruins' best path to covering the spread is through their three-point shooting, which has been hit or miss this season. If they’re cold from deep, Purdue’s defensive length and rebounding will smother them. However, the Bruins are also playing great defense this year. This could be a tight one early with Purdue pulling away late.

The spread feels sharp, but Purdue’s home dominance and size make them the right side. The under also looks solid, given Purdue's slow tempo and UCLA’s struggles in road environments.

The Play: Purdue -5.5