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🏀NBA Picks & Analysis - Monday, March 17
Let’s keep hitting singles and stack that money.
Grizzlies +3
Trail Blazers -5
Nuggets 1st Q +1
Coby White - Under 5.5 Assists (+125)
Justin Edwards - Over 8.5 Points
Malik Monk - Under 22.5 Points + Rebounds
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Tip-off: 4:30 PM (PDT)
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Spread: Knicks -7.5 (-110) | Heat +7.5 (-110)
The Knicks have been dominant at home and match up well against Miami’s weakened frontcourt, but we still got Brunson out for this one.
Miami’s offense has struggled against top-tier defenses, and the Knicks rank among the best in defensive efficiency. Miami is also strong defensively.
We might want to consider the Under, but it’s pretty low at 212.5.
Heat have lost 6 in a row!
Pick: Knicks -7.5
Player Props:
Kel’el Ware - Over 16.5 Points +Rebs (when he gets minutes he usually produces).
Detroit Pistons vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tip-off: 5:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Spread: Pelicans +6.0 (-110) | Pistons -6.0 (-110)
The spread moved this morning from 6 to 7.5. Just stay away from this one.
Tough game to call here — Pistons obviously the much better team but something is telling me to take the Pelicans. It’s probably a no-bet tbh.
Zion Williamson was out last game (personal) so keep an eye on that.
Pick: Pelicans +7.5
Player Props:
Trey Murphy - Over 8.5 Reb + Assists
Indiana Pacers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tip-off: 5:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Spread: Timberwolves -7.0 (-110) | Pacers +7.0 (-110)
Minnesota’s defense is elite, while Indiana relies on its fast-paced offense to keep up in games. Should be an interesting one here with the T-Wolves getting pretty hot right now, winning 8 straight.
The Timberwolves should be able to slow the tempo and take advantage of Indiana’s weaker defense. I like how Minnesota can defend the Indiana guards on the perimeter.
Pick: Timberwolves -8
Player Props:
Anthony Edwards – Over 27.5 Points
Naz Reid - Over 21.5 PRA
Parlay - both of the above together +300
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Houston Rockets
Tip-off: 5:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Spread: 76ers +15.5 (-105) | Rockets -15.5 (-115)
15.5 points is a lot — I’m just staying away from this one and 76ers showed up to play last game (we hit that bet easy — both bets +6.5 and -2.5!).
Houston plays well at home so I expect them to control but it’s just too big of a number to get involved with.
Pick: 76ers +15.5
Player Props:
Jalen Green – Under 22.5 Points - fading after a big game and could be a blowout situation.
Justin Edwards - Over 8.5 Points - has been getting some volume up this month with 8.9 FG attempts and averaging 9.3 ppg. He just needs 25+ mins to cover.
Parlay:
I said I wouldn’t do it… but this one just feels right, damnitt!
Chicago Bulls vs. Utah Jazz
Tip-off: 6:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
Spread: Bulls -5.5 (-110) | Jazz +5.5 (-110)
Spread moved to -6 this morning.
The Bulls have been playing pretty well, and the Jazz’s defense has been near the bottom of the league.
Chicago’s backcourt should be able to control the game. Giddey is still doubtful, but Coby White has been tearing it up. He’s averaging 28 points a game in March.
I’d take the Bulls at this number and the Jazz are on a B2B.
Pick: Bulls -6
Player Props:
Coby White - Over 5.5 Rebs +125 - hitting lately due to high minutes - Jazz should miss a lot of shots.
Coby White - Under 4.5 Assists +125
Nikola Vucevic - Over 15.5 Points
Parlay:
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors
Tip-off: 7:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Spread: Warriors -5.0 (-115) | Nuggets +5.0 (-105)
The Nuggets have been playing pretty bad lately, and the Warriors are really solid at home. It’s unconventional to take Denver here, and that is why I’d take Denver here in a bounce back spot.
This should be a small bet and I’d recommend watching the live bet to see how this starts. If GSW are up early big, just stay away.
Pick: Nuggets +5.0
Nuggest 1st Q +1 - Denver is #1 first Q scoring team. GS is #28.
Player Props:
Steph Curry - Over 4.5 3 Pointers
Staying away from player bets in this one.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings
Tip-off: 7:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Spread: Kings -2.0 (-115) | Grizzlies +2.0 (-105)
Sacramento is good at home, but I love Memphis in this spot. I know Morant is out and I don’t really care. I think Memphis takes care of SAC this game and they need to get back to business.
Sabonis struggles usually against taller big men and Memphis has a few big boys inside.
Pick: Grizzlies +3 or ML
Player Props:
Malik Monk - Under 22.5 Points + Rebounds
Toronto Raptors vs. Phoenix Suns
Tip-off: 7:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Spread: Suns -8.5 (-105) | Raptors +8.5 (-115)
Definitely staying away from this one. If I must take a side, I’d probably go against the Suns and take the Raptors but I don’t like this game.
Phoenix should dominate in transition and on the perimeter.
The Raptors have struggled against top-tier teams all season — but the Suns are terrible at covering bigger spreads.
Pick: No pick. Stay away. Choose Toronto if you must bet on the spread.
Player Props:
Scottie Barnes – Over 4.5 Assists
Washington Wizards vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Tip-off: 7:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Moda Center, Portland, OR
Spread: Trail Blazers -5.0 (-110) | Wizards +5.0 (-110)
Portland is the better team at home, while the Wizards’ defense is one of the worst in the league.
The Trail Blazers are a good home team and I don’t understand why this is only 5 points.
Premium Only Picks 🔒
Pick: Trail Blazers -5.0 — just moved to -6 this morning.
Player Props:
Anfernee Simons – Over 21.5 Points
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tip-off: 7:30 PM (PDT)
Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Spread: Lakers -8.5 (-115) | Spurs +8.5 (-105)
The Lakers are playing well at home, and the Spurs don’t have the defensive talent to slow them down.
Lakers are dealing with a lot of injuries and playing a B2B. Looks like Luka will play as of now and Hayes is back.
Premium Only Picks 🔒
Pick: Lakers -8.5
Player Props:
Jackson Hayes - Over 10.5 Points
Parlay (small one) — hoping for Luka rest in a blow out.
College Basketball Early Look Ahead at Play-in Games
Already locked in both of these for this week.
North Carolina -3.5
Xavier -2