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Kevin Porter Jr - Over 15.5 PRA or Over 8.5 Points
Giannis - Over 27.5 Points
Steph Curry - Over 24.5 Points
Normal Powell - Over 15.5 Points
Jarrett Allen - Under 23.5 Points + Rebs
UNC to win
Ivica Zubac - Over 2.5 Assists (+130)
Cavs -3.5
🏀NBA Spread Picks & Betting Thoughts – March 18, 2025
Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tip-off: 4:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Spread: Hawks -6.5 (-110) | Hornets +6.5 (-110)
Atlanta's offense has been firing, while Charlotte struggles defensively, allowing too many easy looks. I’m very surprised at this number given how bad Charlotte has been playing, but they are at home, and ATL sucks on the road.
The Hawks’ ball movement and ability to push the pace should be too much for the Hornets to handle on defense. The Hawks started to get a little hot — let’s see if that continues.
I think the player props are a little jacked up on this one overall so look to play some unders.
Pick: Hawks -6.5
Player Props:
LaMelo Ball – Under 27.5 Points (shooting has been horrid lately - I get the Hawks D sucks but he’s going under 30% like every game)
Mark Williams - Over 11.5 Rebs
Parlay Play:
LaMelo Ball – Under 27.5 Points
Mark Williams - Over 11.5 Rebs
Trae Young - Under 27.5
+400
Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics
Tip-off: 4:30 PM (PDT)
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Spread: Celtics -13.5 (-110) | Nets +13.5 (-110)
Boston is dominant at home and one of the best defensive teams in the league. Last time these teams played in Brooklyn, the spread was very similar and the Nets only lost by 2.
Brooklyn struggles to score efficiently against top-tier defenses, and the Celtics’ depth will wear them down.
I don’t see the Nets hanging around in this one, but keep in mind Jaylen Brown is out.
Pick: Celtics -13.5
Player Props:
Jayson Tatum – Over 43.5 PRA (usually hits when Brown is out)
Parlay Play:
Tatum Over 43.5 PRA
Boston -12.5
Nets Under 101.5 Points
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors
Tip-off: 7:00 PM (PDT)
Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Spread: Warriors -3.0 (-105) | Bucks +3.0 (-115)
Golden State just took a bad loss at home to Denver who sat Jokic and Murray.
The Bucks will need a big performance from Giannis, but Golden State’s ability to space the floor should give them the edge.
GSW play pretty good at home usually and this should be a tight game because the Bucks are just the better team right now.
This is worth watching on live bets as both teams can make runs, but if the Bucks get down big, they tend to not come back as well on the road.
Pick: Warriors -3.0
Player Props:
Kevin Porter Jr - Over 15.5 PRA (crushing it in limited minutes)
Kevin Porter Jr - Over 8.5 Points
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Over 27.5 Points
Steph Curry - Over 24.5 Points
Parlay Play:
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Over 27.5 Points
Kevin Porter Jr - Over 15.5 PRA
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tip-off: 7:30 PM (PDT)
Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Spread: Cavaliers -3.5 (-110) | Clippers +3.5 (-110)
Cleveland's defense and rebounding should give them the advantage in a tight matchup.
The Clippers have struggled against elite defensive teams, and the Cavaliers should control the pace.
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Pick: Cavaliers -3.5
Player Props:
Donovan Mitchell – Over 5.5 Assists +125 (Clippers need to force him to be a passer more.)
Ivica Zubac - Over 2.5 Assists +130 (Covers this a lot, had 8 last game)
Norman Powell - Over 15.5 Points (took a high enough volume of shots his first game back.)
Jarrett Allen - Under 23.5 Points + Rebs (expecting him to have less looks with all the guys back and Zubac is tough down low)
Parlay Play:
This is +900 and I think it actually has a decent shot.
🏀NCAAB Picks & Analysis - Tuesday, March 18
1. St. Francis (PA) vs. Alabama State
Tip-off: 3:40 PM (PDT)
Venue: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
Spread: Alabama State -4.0 (-105) | St. Francis (PA) +4.0 (-115)
Moneyline: Alabama State -180 | St. Francis (PA) +155
Total (O/U): 140.0 (-105 Over / -115 Under)
Analysis:
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash (16-17): Despite a sub-.500 record, St. Francis has shown resilience, particularly in their shooting efficiency. They average 8.2 three-pointers per game, shooting 33.9% from beyond the arc, and maintain a free-throw percentage of 72.7%. They’ve won 6 straight games.
Alabama State Hornets (19-15): The Hornets have been on a hot streak, winning 10 of their last 11 games, including six straight to clinch their spot in the tournament. They average 73.4 points per game and have been effective in forcing turnovers, ranking inside the top 100 in turnover percentage. They’ve won 11/12 games.
Pick: Alabama State -4.0
Reasoning: St. Francis's proficiency from the perimeter and solid free-throw shooting could keep the game within the spread, but I always bet against a team that can’t take care of the ball, especially when they’re facing a team that forces a lot of turnovers. Alabama State should advance and stay hot with defense.
2. North Carolina vs. San Diego State
Tip-off: 6:10 PM (PDT)
Venue: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
Spread: North Carolina -5.0 (-110) | San Diego State +5.0 (-110)
Moneyline: North Carolina -210 | San Diego State +175
Total (O/U): 142.0 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Analysis:
I already locked this in right away for UNC at -3.5.
North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13): The Tar Heels have had a roller-coaster season but managed to secure a tournament spot. They average 80.8 points per game but have shown vulnerabilities on defense, allowing 75 points per game. They came back and gave Duke a tough battle in the ACC tournament.
San Diego State Aztecs (21-9): Known for their defensive prowess, the Aztecs allow just 63.6 points per game. Their methodical pace and emphasis on defense contrast with UNC's high-scoring approach. It should be an interesting game with these different styles.
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Pick: North Carolina -5 (try to get -3 on live bet)
Reasoning: The Aztecs' defense could disrupt UNC's offensive rhythm, but UNC has talent and they should be able to score against SD St, which is a team having a down year (for them).
Parlay Pick for fun:
