🔥 NBA Play-In Breakdown – Friday, April 18
Two elimination games on deck. Let’s break down both and find some value.
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
🕒 Time: 7:00 PM ET
📍 Location: State Farm Arena (Atlanta)
Spread: Heat +1.0 (-110) | Hawks -1.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Heat EVEN | Hawks -120
Total: 218.5 (O -110, U -110)
Matchup Breakdown:
Miami dominated the Bulls on Wednesday behind Tyler Herro’s 38-point night. The Heat’s defense ranks among the league’s best and they’ve looked sharp in must-win scenarios. They’re also 6-4 in their last 10 while holding opponents to just 106 PPG.
Atlanta, meanwhile, got rolled by the Magic and continues to struggle defensively. Despite their elite scoring output (5th in the league), they’re 27th in defensive rating and will miss Capela and Jalen Johnson. Trae Young will need a monster outing to keep this close.
I’m trying to find some players who have bigger upside in this game. I think the Heat play pretty solid perimeter defense, so one guy I’d look at to increase his scoring load could be Onyeka Okongwu. He has potential to hit 30 points and Atlanta will have to move the ball and score inside vs. relying on jacking up threes.
Key Trends:
Heat have covered 5 of their last 7
Hawks allow 119.3 PPG (27th in NBA)
Miami has won 6 of last 10 H2H
Hawks have won 7 of their last 10 at home
💎 Premium Picks:
Spread Bet: Heat ML (Even)
Total Bet: Under 220 - If you think the Heat are going to win, it probably goes under. I’m not going to bet this but will keep an eye on live.
Player Props:
Onyeka Okongwu - Over 14.5 Points (Also playing 20+ points)
Trae Young Over 11.5 Assists
Duncan Robinson Over 6.5 Points
Tyler Herro Under 5.5 Assists
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
🕒 Time: 9:30 PM ET
📍 Location: FedExForum (Memphis)
Spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-115) | Grizzlies -6.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Mavericks +210 | Grizzlies -250
Total: 221.0 (O -110, U -110)
Matchup Breakdown:
The Grizzlies lost a close one to Golden State and are dealing with a questionable Ja Morant. They’ve won 3 straight vs. Dallas and are 7-3 in their last 10 H2H, but Morant’s ankle and the improved Mavs rebounding could change the equation.
Dallas shocked Sacramento behind Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson. Davis posted 27 & 9 while Klay lit up from deep. Without Kyrie or Luka, the Mavericks rely on spacing and perimeter shooting—and Memphis is just average defending the arc. I think Memphis is the much better team here, but Dallas could play the right way to stay in this if they force turnovers and slow the game down.
One matchup I’m watching Edey vs. the bigs on the Mavericks. Dallas has a lot of big boys they can rotate down low and I don’t know if Edey has a great matchup in this one. I was pretty surprised to see his points at 10.5.
Key Trends:
Grizzlies have covered last 3 vs Dallas
Mavs averaging just 108 PPG in last 10
Grizzlies 2nd in scoring but 24th in points allowed
AD and Klay combining for nearly 50 PPG in last 2
💎 Premium Picks:
Spread Bet: No bet. Looking for live bet while watching the game. I am on Grizzlies ML though.
Total Bet: Over 221.0
Player Props:
Zach Edey Under 10.5 Points - probably my favorite bet here
Jaren Jackson Jr Over 2.5 Three Pointers
Guardians ML
Mets ML
Royals ML
Phillies ML
Giants ML
Dodgers ML