Let’s finish this NCCAB season strong. I’m 17-3 in the past 2 weeks — let’s go!
If you like money, join me here: Minted Bets Premium. You also get access to the Discord when you sign up where I post all my bets, live bets, and talk through games/scenarios each day.
Here’s what I did yesterday… Check out this destruction of the sports books below!
🏆🏀 NCAAB National Championship Breakdown – Monday, 4/7
Florida (#1) vs. Houston (#1)
Tip-Off: 5:50 PM PT
Spread: Florida -1.0
Total: 141.0
Moneyline: Florida -115 / Houston -105
🔍 Game Preview:
The title game pits Florida’s high-octane offense against Houston’s elite, suffocating defense in what could be one of the most stylistic chess matches we’ve seen all tournament.
Florida ranks top 5 in nearly every offensive metric—points per game (85.3), rebounds (41.9), and field goals made—driven by sharpshooter Walter Clayton and a strong rebounding frontcourt.
Houston, on the other hand, allows a nation-best 58.5 points per game. They are No. 1 in opponent field goal percentage (38.2%) and No. 3 in effective field goal percentage allowed. Houston limits possessions, slows pace, and forces teams into awkward shots.
This is strength vs. strength: Florida wants tempo and volume, Houston wants precision and pain. Overall, I think we might see FL come out of the gates strong, but Houston simply will not go away. This is going to be a very tight game.
The key, for me, is Florida being able to take care of the ball and not being sloppy. If they get sloppy, Houston could run away with this. But Florida can score quickly and will have advantages in guard play and some height advantages down low. But I don’t see Florida being able to necessarily score down low.
✅ Best Bets:
Spread: Houston +1.0
Houston’s defense is too dominant to pass up as a slight underdog. They control pace and limit second chances—two things Florida thrives on.1st Half Bet: Florida ML — Florida is one of the best first half teams in the country and Houston is a team that takes time to settle in.
Parlay: For +500, you can take FL ML 1st half + Houston +1. I feel like this is incredible value, especially because this is where both team’s strengths lie and we saw this exactly happen with the Duke game AND the Auburn game.
Total: Under 141.0
Despite Florida’s scoring ability, Houston games are consistently low scoring. If the Cougars dictate tempo, this total should comfortably stay under. I don’t see Florida’s offense as ultra efficient — more an offense that has great players who can score in runs.
🔥 Best Player Prop Bets:
Florida
Walter Clayton Over 20.5 Points (-125)
He’s been the offensive engine for Florida, and he’ll need a big performance for them to win. Houston will definitely focus on him, like Auburn did, but it just did not matter last game.Alex Condon Under 8.5 Points (-143)
Tough matchup against Houston’s physical bigs. Condon is looking more to pass and is not an effective scorer. He really doesn’t have much touch down low and takes too long to go up and score.
Houston
Emmanuel Sharpe Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made
Covered the last 3 games easily and taking 7 or more threes the past 3 games. They’re going to need him to take 7-8 threes and I think he’ll get a few open looks.LJ Cryer Over 17.5 Points (-125)
Cryer has been clutch in the tournament and should get plenty of shot volume.J’Wan Roberts Over 11.5 Points (-108)
Florida allows some room in the mid-post, and Roberts could capitalize.
🏀NBA Picks Today - Monday, 4/7
Here’s the deal: We only have two games so I’m going to provide more extensive information. That doesn’t mean you should go make every single bet you see. It means you should consider the information to make your best decisions. Now, let’s get some damn money again today!
Kings vs. Pistons
Game: Sacramento Kings at Detroit Pistons
Tip-Off: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Pistons -7.0
Total: 231.0
Moneyline: Kings +210 / Pistons -250
🔍 Game Preview:
Detroit has already clinched a playoff berth but can only climb to the 5-seed at best. Sacramento, however, is in desperation mode, fighting for their Play-In lives with a brutal schedule ahead (Nuggets and Clippers next). Despite missing a few pieces, the Kings have rattled off two clutch wins, including a come-from-behind victory in Cleveland.
Detroit enters this matchup after a home loss to Memphis, where they fell apart in the 4th quarter. Their recent performance is mixed, and while their defense has moments of strength, it hasn’t been consistent late in games.
The Kings have firepower in LaVine, DeRozan, and Sabonis — all three playing some of their best ball in the stretch run. This could be a tight one, and the spread might be too generous to Detroit, who may limit minutes for key players as the postseason nears.
Premium Only - Best Picks, Spread Bets, & Player Props
✅ Best Bets:
Spread: Kings +7.0
Sacramento is the more motivated team, playing well lately, and should cover a touchdown-sized spread — even on a back-to-back.Total: Over 231.0
Both teams rank top-13 in offensive efficiency and love to push pace. Expect scoring.
🔥 Best Player Prop Bets:
Sacramento
DeMar DeRozan Over 22.5 Points (EVEN)
He’s scored 20+ in 13 of his last 14 and has a long history of producing vs. Detroit.Domantas Sabonis Over 12.5 rebounds
His usage is massive, and he nearly triple-doubled last night. Detroit struggles against skilled bigs and Duren is possibly out.
Detroit
Malik Beasley Over 15.5 Points (+105)
He had a bad shooting night last game, but he’s never shy about volume. Bounce-back spot. He shoots 10 threes per game lately, which is crazy, and SAC defense is not the best.
I think Beasley is my favorite bet of these. I’ll play him 20+ points also.
Parlay Shot
76ers vs. Heat
Game: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
Tip-Off: 4:30 PM PT
Spread: Heat -14.5
Total: 214.5
Moneyline: 76ers +625 / Heat -1000
🔍 Game Preview:
Grimes has been averaging 22.3 PPG in his 25 games with the Sixers and has dropped 24+ in three straight — including six threes in his last game. Guerschon Yabusele, Jared Butler, and Adem Bona round out what’s left of the rotation.
The Sixers rank 25th in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. They’ve covered just once in their last ten games.
Miami is locked into the Play-In, but their seeding still matters. With a strong close to the season, they could rise as high as 8th. Bam Adebayo is carrying the load, coming off a 31-point, 12-rebound outing against Milwaukee.
Tyler Herro is questionable with a thigh injury, and if he sits, expect Duncan Robinson to start again. Kel’el Ware, Alec Burks, and Andrew Wiggins (also questionable) round out the main scoring threats.
The Heat rank 21st in offense, but 8th in defense — and they should dominate this matchup physically in what should be a lower scoring game.
Premium Only - Best Picks, Spread Bets, & Player Props
✅ Best Bets:
Spread: 76ers +14.5 — Miami doesn’t feel like a team that will be blowing other teams out and Herro is Q so it's worth the risk.
Best Bet: 76ers 1st Q +5
Total: Under 214.5
Miami doesn’t push pace, and Philly may struggle to score 100 against a top-10 defense. Both teams are trending under lately.
🔥 Best Player Prop Bets:
Philadelphia
Quentin Grimes Over 22.5 Points (+100)
He’s the clear #1 option and has scored 24+ in three straight. High volume, decent matchup.
Miami
Bam Adebayo Over 21.5 Points (-113)
Philly’s interior defense is a mess without Embiid or Drummond. Bam could dominate early.Kel’el Ware Over 9.5 Rebs
Quietly emerging, and gets a cupcake matchup against a weak Sixers frontcourt.
Hopefully “Safe” Parlay for Everyone Today
