🕒 10:00 PM ET @ Provident Credit Union Event Center, San Jose, CA
💰 Moneyline: Nevada -270 | San Jose State +220 | Total (O/U): 136.0 (-110 Over / -110 Under)
Key betting trends:
Nevada: 12-12 ATS overall, 6-4 ATS in the last 10 matchups against San Jose State.
San Jose State: 18-5-1 ATS overall, 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 games.
Head-to-Head: Nevada has won the last three meetings and eight of the last ten, including a 75-64 win on Jan. 18.
Matchup analysis
Nevada Wolf Pack
Record: 14-10, 12-12 ATS
✅ Strong passing (42nd in assists per game)
✅ Efficient scoring (31st in shooting percentage)
✅ Solid defense (54th in opponent PPG)
❌ Struggles at the free throw line (268th in FT%)
❌ Below-average rebounding (254th in total rebounds per game)
Key injuries: C. Bailey (questionable - undisclosed), T. Coleman (questionable - undisclosed), Y. Yamanouchi-Williams (questionable - hip).
San Jose State Spartans
Record: 12-14, 18-5-1 ATS
✅ Strong ATS record (78.3% cover rate)
✅ Decent three-point shooting (74th in 3PT%)
✅ Plays well with rest advantage (6-0 ATS)
❌ Weak rebounding (327th in total rebounds per game)
❌ Poor interior defense (263rd in opponent two-point percentage)
Key injuries: W. McClendon (questionable - knee), J. Uduje (questionable - elbow), A. Diongue (questionable - foot), C. Patterson (questionable - undisclosed), B. Roseborough (questionable - foot).
Picks & predictions
Final score: Nevada 74 - San Jose State 70
Outcome: San Jose State covers the spread | Key factors: Nevada's rebounding edge, San Jose State’s ATS dominance, and injury concerns on both sides.
Spread pick | San Jose State +6 (-105) - Reasoning: The Spartans have covered in five straight games and boast an 18-5-1 ATS record. Expect another close game. Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (7/10) |
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