NFC Championship Game: Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Game Details

  • Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025

  • Time: 3:00 PM ET

  • Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

  • Weather: Cloudy, temperatures around freezing, light winds

  • Broadcast: FOX

Odds

  • Spread: Eagles -6 (-110), Commanders +6 (-110)

  • Moneyline: Eagles -280, Commanders +230

  • Total: Over 47.0 (-115), Under 47.0 (-105)

Team Overviews

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Record: 14-3 (9-1 home)

  • Key Stats:

    • Offense: 27.0 PPG (#7), 362.2 YPG (#9)

    • Defense: 17.6 PPG allowed (#1), 286.1 YPG allowed (#1)

    • Rushing Offense: 184.3 YPG (#2)

    • Passing Defense: 181.4 YPG allowed (#2)

    • Turnover Margin: +0.9 per game (#2)

The Eagles enter this game as one of the most complete teams in the NFL. Their dominant rushing attack, led by Saquon Barkley, has been the backbone of their offense, complemented by Jalen Hurts' dual-threat ability. Philadelphia’s defense, coordinated by Vic Fangio, has been elite in both stopping the run and limiting big plays through the air.

In their playoff run, Barkley has been a force, amassing over 324 rushing yards in two games, while the Eagles' defense has held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game.

Washington Commanders

  • Record: 12-5 (5-4 away)

  • Key Stats:

    • Offense: 29.1 PPG (#4), 374.5 YPG (#5)

    • Defense: 23.3 PPG allowed (#18), 334.9 YPG allowed (#16)

    • Rushing Offense: 151.7 YPG (#3)

    • Passing Offense: 222.7 YPG (#13)

    • Red Zone Offense: 63.75% TD rate (#6)

The Commanders have been the surprise of the postseason, powered by the stellar play of rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Daniels has displayed poise and explosiveness, with two straight playoff wins highlighted by efficient passing and clutch performances. The offense thrives on balance, with a strong run game and a dynamic passing attack that can stretch defenses.

However, Washington's defense remains a liability, particularly against the run, where they rank near the bottom of the league in yards allowed per game (138.9, #30).

Key Matchups

1. Philadelphia’s Rushing Attack vs. Washington’s Run Defense

The Eagles have relied on their league-leading rushing volume, averaging 36.3 attempts and 184.3 yards per game. Saquon Barkley has dominated Washington in their two regular-season meetings, rushing for a combined 296 yards and 4 TDs.

Washington's defense has struggled against the run, allowing 4.9 yards per carry (#30). Unless they can stack the box and slow down Barkley, the Eagles will control time of possession and grind down the defense.

2. Jayden Daniels vs. Philadelphia’s Defense

Daniels has been phenomenal in his rookie season, using his mobility and arm talent to keep defenses off balance. He’ll face a tough test against Philadelphia’s top-ranked defense, which excels at limiting big plays and forcing turnovers.

In their regular-season split, Daniels had a quiet game in Philadelphia (191 yards, no TDs) but rebounded with a 258-yard, 5-TD performance in Washington’s Week 16 win. The Eagles’ ability to disguise coverages and generate pressure will be critical in limiting Daniels’ effectiveness.

3. Jalen Hurts' Rushing Ability

Hurts’ mobility is a game-changer, especially in high-leverage situations. However, a knee injury suffered last week against the Rams could limit his running. If Washington brings heavy pressure, Hurts may look to Saquon Barkley or checkdowns to avoid sacks.

Key Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia Eagles:

    • 9-1 SU at home this season.

    • 12-7 ATS overall, including 6-3 as home favorites.

    • Under is 8-11 in their games this year, reflecting their defensive dominance.

  • Washington Commanders:

    • 12-6-1 ATS overall and 5-2-1 ATS as underdogs.

    • The Over is 12-7 in their games this season.

    • 6-3 ATS and SU as underdogs under head coach Dan Quinn.

Prediction

The Eagles are deservedly favored, given their defensive dominance and ability to control games with their run game. However, the Commanders’ recent form and Jayden Daniels’ emergence give them a real shot at keeping this game close. Expect Philadelphia to lean heavily on Saquon Barkley, limiting Washington's opportunities on offense. While Daniels' playmaking ability will create moments of brilliance, the Eagles’ superior depth and home-field advantage should carry them to a hard-fought win.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 20 [over/under is a push!]
Pick: Eagles -6

Best Bets

  1. Eagles -6 (-110): Philadelphia’s defense and run game should control the game.

  2. Under 47.0 (-105): Both teams will focus on the run, leading to a slower-paced game.

  3. Jalen Hurts Pass Yards Over 180.5: This is a no-brainer call this week to bet on Hurts with a number this low and fading all the hate coming his way.

  4. Saquon Barkley Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-135): Barkley will be a key safety valve for Hurts.

  5. Jayden Daniels Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-110): Daniels has consistently topped this mark in high-pressure games.

The Eagles should emerge victorious, but the Commanders’ resilience makes them a compelling underdog play, especially if you’re looking for a value moneyline bet.

AFC Championship Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs 

Game Details

  • Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025

  • Time: 6:30 PM ET

  • Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

  • Weather: Cold, around freezing with light wind

  • TV: CBS

  • Announcers: Jim Nantz (play-by-play), Tony Romo (analyst)

Odds

  • Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-115), Bills +1.5 (-105)

  • Moneyline: Chiefs -125, Bills +105

  • Total: Over 48.5 (-115), Under 48.5 (-105)

Team Overviews

Buffalo Bills

Regular Season Record: 13-4
Playoff Path:

  • Divisional Round: Defeated Baltimore Ravens, 28-17

  • Wild Card: Bye

Key Offensive Stats:

  • Points/Game: 30.7 (#2)

  • Yards/Play: 5.9 (#6)

  • 3rd Down Conversion %: 44.74% (#7)

  • RZ Scoring % (TD): 68.42% (#2)

Josh Allen has been in MVP form, combining for 45 touchdowns (37 passing, 8 rushing) in the regular season. The Bills lean on a balanced offensive attack, ranking 9th in rushing yards per game (136.2) and 11th in passing yards (224.3). Allen's ability to stretch the field and run in critical moments makes Buffalo dangerous in high-pressure games.

Key Defensive Stats:

  • Opp Points/Game: 21.1 (#8)

  • Turnover Margin/Game: +1.4 (#1)

  • Opp Yards/Play: 5.6 (#25)

The defense has thrived on creating turnovers, leading the NFL in takeaways (1.8/game) and turnover margin. However, their weakness against explosive plays could be a concern against Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City Chiefs

Regular Season Record: 14-3
Playoff Path:

  • Divisional Round: Defeated Cincinnati Bengals, 31-20

  • Wild Card: Bye

Key Offensive Stats:

  • Points/Game: 22.7 (#15)

  • Yards/Play: 5.1 (#24)

  • 3rd Down Conversion %: 47.92% (#3)

  • RZ Scoring % (TD): 52.86% (#24)

While the Chiefs' offense hasn't been as dominant as in years past, Patrick Mahomes continues to make critical plays. His connection with Travis Kelce is the backbone of the passing game, while Isiah Pacheco has emerged as a reliable rusher. The offensive line has been inconsistent, leading to a 6.58% sack rate (#17).

Key Defensive Stats:

  • Opp Points/Game: 18.9 (#3)

  • Opp Yards/Play: 5.4 (#12)

  • Opp 3rd Down Conv %: 44.40% (#29)

Kansas City's defense has been one of the league’s best in scoring prevention, led by Chris Jones and a strong secondary. They’ve allowed just 2.1 touchdowns per game (#4) and are opportunistic in the red zone. However, their struggles on third down could be a liability against Buffalo's efficient offense.

Matchup Analysis

Offense vs. Defense

  • Bills Offense vs. Chiefs Defense:
    The Bills' explosive offense faces a stout Kansas City defense. Josh Allen's dual-threat ability will challenge a Chiefs front that struggles with mobile quarterbacks. Look for Allen to spread the ball among targets.

  • Chiefs Offense vs. Bills Defense:
    Mahomes will target Buffalo’s secondary, which ranks 28th in completion percentage allowed. Travis Kelce remains the focal point, but Buffalo’s safeties and linebackers, led by Matt Milano, may limit his impact. Kansas City’s run game needs to step up against a Bills front that allows 116.7 rushing yards per game.

Key Matchups

  1. Josh Allen vs. Kansas City’s Pressure:
    Allen has been the least sacked quarterback in the NFL (2.91% sack rate). If the Chiefs' pass rush, led by Chris Jones, can disrupt his timing, it could force Allen into risky throws.

  2. Travis Kelce vs. Matt Milano:
    Milano, Buffalo’s All-Pro linebacker, will be tasked with limiting Kelce’s production. This matchup could determine Kansas City's offensive rhythm.

  3. Bills Secondary vs. Mahomes' Downfield Passing:
    The Chiefs' passing game thrives on big plays, while the Bills' secondary has been prone to allowing chunk yardage. Look for Mahomes to exploit this mismatch.

Betting Trends

  • Bills:

    • 11-7 ATS this season

    • 5-4 ATS on the road

    • 7-1 ATS when scoring 30+ points

  • Chiefs:

    • 10-8 ATS this season

    • 7-2 ATS at home

    • 9-0 SU at Arrowhead Stadium

  • Head-to-Head:

    • The Bills defeated the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11 in Buffalo.

    • Kansas City has won three of their last five playoff meetings, including the 2022 Divisional Round thriller (42-36 in OT).

Prediction

  • Final Score: Bills 28, Chiefs 24

  • Reasoning: The Bills' offensive depth and Josh Allen’s mobility give them the edge in this rematch. While Arrowhead is a daunting environment, Buffalo's defense has proven capable of forcing turnovers. Kansas City's offense will struggle to keep up without a consistent ground game, and the Bills will capitalize on red zone opportunities.

Best Bets

  1. Bills +1.5 (-105):
    Buffalo’s momentum and well-rounded roster make them an appealing underdog.

  2. Under 48.5 (-105):
    With cold weather and two strong defenses, this game may fall short of the total.

  3. Josh Allen Anytime TD (+125):
    Allen’s red zone rushing ability is a reliable bet in big games.

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