Chargers vs. Lions — Preseason Opener
Football is back… sort of.
The NFL preseason kicks off tonight with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, and I’ve got eyes on one side: Chargers moneyline (+115).
🎯Why I’m Backing the Bolts
QB Rotation Advantage: The Chargers are giving Trey Lance a solid first-half window, followed by DJ Uiagalelei — both mobile, high-upside guys with something to prove. Detroit, on the other hand, will likely rotate between Hendon Hooker and Kyle Allen, neither of whom inspire much confidence.
Depth Focus: LA’s rookie class is loaded with speed and power — names like Omarion Hampton, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and Tre Harris are looking to make an immediate impact. These are the types of guys who shine in preseason moments.
Other Leans Worth Watching
Spread: Chargers +1.5 — A solid fallback if you want a bit more cushion.
Total: Over 34.0 — These games can be sloppy, but the Over has quietly hit in recent Hall of Fame matchups. Expect some defensive breakdowns and busted coverages.
MLB Picks – Thursday, July 31
Yankees ML (+102) vs. Rays
Pitching Edge: Ryan Pepiot takes the mound for Tampa, but he’s projected to go under 5.5 K and faces a sneaky-tough matchup in the Bronx.
Weather/Context: Game-time temps in the 80s + hitter-friendly wind conditions.
Model Angle: Yankees bats have a projected .305 wOBA vs. Rays arms — enough to back them with plus money.
Pick: Yankees ML (+102)
Braves/Reds – YRFI (-115)
Matchup Breakdown: Carlos Carrasco (ATL) is one of the weakest arms on the board. Add in 13+ mph wind out to RF and two offenses built to jump early…
Environment: Great American Ballpark ranks top 3 in run creation, especially in heat like this.
Model Projection: 57% chance of a 1st inning run, highest EV bet on the board.
Pick: YRFI – Braves @ Reds (-115)
Mariners -1.5 (+130) vs. Rangers
Pitching Edge: George Kirby is one of today’s most stable arms (projected 5.8 IP, 5.5 K, 2.3 ER).
Ranger Bats Cool Off: Texas is below average vs. right-handers and walks into a major park downgrade.
Weather Factor: Cooler temps + Mariners home boost = edge to SEA arms and bats.
Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+130)
HR Props to Consider
Jazz Chisholm Jr. OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Best hitting weather + power profile + weak opposing pen.Trent Grisham OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Hot weather, decent contact form, and EV-positive matchup.Austin Wells OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Value dart throw — best EV for long odds today.